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The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

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Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#21

Post by temp-dude-87844 »

BluSyn wrote: post #2

"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

This has long been empirically observed (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift), but different schools of economic thought have different opinions about whether it's sufficient to result in a vicious cycle.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#22

Post by nytesky »

So basically the fear of recession may trigger a recession? Laying off, cutting spending and thus cascading economic contraction?

Don’t think that would be a liquidity trap, but this type of recession always makes me think of Krugmans Baby-Sitting COOP model: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Babysitting_Co-...

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#24

Post by Ma8ee »

pascalxus wrote: post #9
BluSyn wrote: post #2

"The report said worry about an economic slowdown was the main driver of companies' layoff intentions." I sometimes wonder if these sorts of economic projections end up being self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone tightens up spending because they expect a recession, that essentially guarantees there will be one.

anytime you grow at an unsustainable rate, a slowdown is inevitable. It's not a question of if, its a question of when.

The question is what is a sustainable rate.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#25

Post by raesene9 »

pascalxus wrote: post #13

And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of who's buying stocks/equities. EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.

I have a theory (it's a totally unproven one, I hasten to add).

There's been a huge move into passively managed index funds over the last 10 years, with many smart investors touting them as a better long term bet than actively managed funds.

Passively managed funds don't look at what's coming down the road, they invest to fixed formula.

So where an active fund might predict a fall and get out of equities, all the passively managed money stays put.

Self-fulfilling prophesy as markets are fundamentally about confidence, this shows confidence in the equities markets, despite issues like those in the article.

So the markets continue to rise.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#28

Post by nytesky »

pascalxus wrote: post #13

And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of who's buying stocks/equities. EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.

Is trading volume low? I think you can have high prices but low demand when volumes low.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#29

Post by r_smart »

Ma8ee wrote: post #24
pascalxus wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anytime you grow at an unsustainable rate, a slowdown is inevitable. It's not a question of if, its a question of when.

The question is what is a sustainable rate.

The one where interest rates aren't being artificially lowered.

Re: The U.S. just had the most Q1 layoffs in a decade

#30

Post by systemBuilder »

bb2018 wrote: post #17
pascalxus wrote: post #13

And yet, markets are nearly at all time highs. I'd like to see a breakdown of who's buying stocks/equities. EDIT: I know earnings are high, but much of our growth over the last 20 years has been during 2-4% GDP deficit. I don't think that's been priced into the markets. Markets may be assuming that the deficit party will continue.

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.

Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! Unemployment has been HORRIBLE since Bush left office!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.

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