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Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

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Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#91

Post by rygxqpbsngav »

This is closely related to 'Chaos theory' too. There is a great correlation.

"Small differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for dynamical systems"

My interpretation is that second order thinkers see unconventional things of how a dynamic system behaves to fine tune it initially and intervene when it's moving in wrong direction to drive it in the direction that yields desired results.

> What do the consequences look like in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 Years? 1

> Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can’t see.

Although experience plays a key role, the second order still have to think that aren't yet experienced by them based on the patterns they can recognize.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#92

Post by karmakaze »

teekert wrote: post #74

"For example, consider a country that, wanting to inspire regime change in another country, funds and provides weapons to a group of “moderate rebels.” Only it turns out that those moderate rebels will become powerful and then go to war with the sponsoring country for decades. Whoops." Unless you want to make it look like a beneficial regime change but your actual wish is long term destabilization of a region ;)

> long term destabilization of a region

That's not the final order thought--it doesn't show 'what's in it for me?' There's got to be another 'why?'

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#93

Post by karmakaze »

ilaksh wrote: post #24
blattimwind wrote: post #4

> The ability to think through problems to the second, third, and nth order—or what we will call second-order thinking for short—is a powerful tool that supercharges your thinking. Clearly it should be called higher-order thinking.

Just "planning" seems adequate to me.

Plans for the most part execute the 'happy path'. That's wny everything's late and over-budget. Contingincy planning captures 2nd order and that's about as deep as it ever goes.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#94

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

mjburgess wrote: post #86
dalbasal wrote: post #83

I think people are generally good at 2nd order thinking, and thinking within complex systems with multiple causes, effects and subsequent effects. Especially so if we're immersed and experienced in a field. We are bad at thinking this way in groups, relatively. We're especially bad when these groups are political. If we're deciding on arming rebels, the political dynamics are the 2nd order effects that dominate think…

I don't know that this is true. I meet quite a lot of utopians (which are 1st order thinkers!), who assume the stated goal of a policy will be its effects. Perhaps this is about knowledge. In domestic situations where you know how to casually infer to more distant effects, 2nd order is easier. In politics, 2nd order is hard because people know very little and need to know very little (in their daily lives).

Politics is the poster entity for this.

Stupid 1st order: Making jails as bad as possible will deter criminals which will make everyone safer.

Good 2nd order: That doesn't work. How about we try rehabilitation and cutting the social and economic causes of crime?

Evil 2nd order: You're a snowflake. Of course it works. [I know it's nonsense, but I'm going to lie to you for profit.] How are the shares in my prison services company doing today?

Stupid 1st order: See! The authority agrees! We're right!

3rd order: So... how do we deal with the evil 2nd order people?

Everyone else: Why are you creating imaginary problems? Let's get back to the real issues!

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#95

Post by karmakaze »

Temporal thinking is something that needs to be exercised. It's relatively easy to think 'what if', 'and then what' but much harder to think these through when each next level overwrites the previous one, it's not a matter of adding up the effects of static layers. Successive effects invalidate former ones to varying degrees. It's really just running thought experiments, but running them deeper and simulating for longer time periods.

The most visual demonstration of most of these talking points is in the game of Go. Being able to 'read' the board is seeing the good/bad outcome of a world of possibilities.

The other really good comment made was about quantifying second order effects. Being able to imagine higher order effects without being able to estimate them leads to analysis paralysis.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#96

Post by keepmesmall »

3rd order thinkers see direct causes, indirect causes, direct effects and indirect effects, which establishes the need for setting up an internal feedback loop to strengthen the causes classified as direct (coming from within) and to power the process of distinguishing between direct and indirect causes. Without this feedback loop the experience of indirect causes results in an experience of loss of agency.

1st order thinkers know what they do, 2nd order thinkers know what they do to others, 3rd order thinkers know what they want to do. I'm leaving an interpolation which is both obvious, crucial, trivial and infinitely deep to the reader.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#97

Post by teekert »

radosc wrote: post #81
teekert wrote: post #74

"For example, consider a country that, wanting to inspire regime change in another country, funds and provides weapons to a group of “moderate rebels.” Only it turns out that those moderate rebels will become powerful and then go to war with the sponsoring country for decades. Whoops." Unless you want to make it look like a beneficial regime change but your actual wish is long term destabilization of a region ;)

To stimulate sponsoring country's economy and cement electoral choices in the face of a common threat.

Indeed, but you can hide behind your 1st order thought, play dumb and get the vote of the 1st order thinkers.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#98

Post by coldtea »

jjk166 wrote: post #53

This isn't second order thinking. Deciding to eat a salad when you're hungry instead of a candy bar because you value health over immediate satisfaction is discipline, not intelligence. You're still thinking linearly about the costs and benefits of the decision, you're just placing more emphasis on the longer term costs and benefits. Second order thinking refers to holistically looking at a situation to see emergent…

>This isn't second order thinking. Deciding to eat a salad when you're hungry instead of a candy bar because you value health over immediate satisfaction is discipline, not intelligence.

Nope, it is. Instead of sticking to a solution that only solves the immediate problem (hunger, first order), he changed the solution based on the adverse side-effects of going with the first solution (hunger solved, but health worsened, second order).

>Second order thinking would be choosing a salad when you're hungry so that salad becomes associated with relieving hunger, thus making it easier to choose salads going forward, which will create a positive feedback loop keeping you on your diet.

Nope, that's motivation engineering, which is orthogonal to second order thinking.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#99

Post by coldtea »

goatlover wrote: post #73
aphextron wrote: post #32

This closely mirrors my own thesis on genius. There are first level, direct thinkers. This is the lower 50% of all people, although everyone is capable of it. It is direct and without irony, sarcasm, or self reflection. Think slapstick comedy, or superhero movies. The second level is in 4th wall breaking, analogy, simile, anything which takes "getting" the joke beyond the purely visual. Most people who consider thems…

> It is direct and without irony, sarcasm, or self reflection. Think slapstick comedy, or superhero movies. RDJ/Tony Stark would like a word with you.

Irony, sarcasm, and self reflection at the context of the movie, not the character.

RDJ/Tony Stark's "Irony, sarcasm, and self reflection" are still a flat description of an ironic, sarcastic etc character.

Not irony, sarcasm etc superimposed on the design/presence of the character itself within the movie.

Re: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform (2016)

#100

Post by markdog12 »

1st order thinking dominates our politics and economics. And worse, there's no incentive for 2nd order thinking from our politicians, since the electorate doesn't go beyond 1st order. Further, pre-existing assumptions are usually backed by 1st order thinking, but not 2nd.

Not a bad little book promoting 2nd order thinking in economics: https://fee.org/resources/economics-in-one-lesson/

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