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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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221–230 of 488 posts

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They cannot afford to slow down because their market cap will fall and (1) they won't be able to get more money, and (2) they won't attract fans and media.

They get money by selling cars at a profit.

I'm simply referring to the normal reasoning on why Musk doesn't like shorts.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#222
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Production is up year over year, no? I mean, that's expected for a growth company. What's unexpected for a "growth" company is a sudden halt in growth. Why would production drop by roughly 10% and deliveries drop by 30% in one quarter? I think most people were expecting a drop of some kind due to the loss of the $7500 tax credit, but 30% drop is far larger of a drop than almost anyone ever expected. Note that Tesla…

Unforeseen logistics issues when delivering to a multitude of countries. It's not a bad sign, they have the best selling EV in the world and expect to be profitable from here on out. If they they aren't profitable the next 3 quarters then I'd be worried.

> Unforeseen logistics issues when delivering to a multitude of countries.

Why did PRODUCTION drop? What happened to US demand? The M3 sold 61,000 Units Q4 2018 in the USA alone. Why would expanding to China + Europe lower both production and deliveries?

Why would Tesla only make 51,000 M3 cars when trying to satisfy China + US + Europe?

Note what Tesla said: > At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally.

Okay, so lets say all of those vehicles in transit were delivered in Q1. That means Tesla "would have" delivered 70,000 cars (total, S+X+3), which is still a 20% drop from the 90,000 (S+X+3) delivered in Q4.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing

Isn’t that sorta like what Steve Ballmer said about the iPhone, and then laughed?

Cars don't have network effects like smartphones do

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#224

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

And then I would just shrug my shoulders and buy more index funds. Investing in individual companies, no matter what you think you know, is always unwise compared to index investing.

This advice is almost always right. It's wrong when you're on the precipice of a massive market bubble. Your job is to decide whether or not that is the case right now....

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#225
post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

They used to do that. None of the oems wanted to build more than token, regulation satisfying nothing burgers so Tesla was forced to make their own cars. People don’t appreciate Tesla’s role in pushing Evs forward enough.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#226
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My first foray into US shares was in a managed funds which saw me lose 25% of my net worth and they still took their 1.5% fee for their service. I decided I'd rather lose money due to my own decisions and loaded up on AAPL instead which ended up being recouping my losses and then some. I basically limit myself to major tech co's since that's where I see the consolidation of wealth ending up which has proven to be a s…

Managed funds are a ripoff, and not index funds. There is nearly infinite data showing that S&P 500 index funds outperform every single investment strategy. I would be focusing on bonds indexes right now though, that's just me. Good luck with the lifetime win/loss if you keep this up.

Bond funds are the one place where active management actually does make sense...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#227

They had an order backlog, and they filled it. Now, like the rest of automotive, they're sales-limited. All the big US auto companies have been able to make more than they can sell since 1956. (In the spring of 1956, supply caught up with pent-up WWII demand. Then came the era of chrome.) Tesla is in a business where many customers just want to pay their money and drive away with a car. Not "preorder" and wait for mo…

if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority?

a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla.

honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#228

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

Conversely, I'm seeing a lot of faith in Tesla's ability to execute that does not really seem backed by the actual facts on the ground.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#229
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honda makes gas cars which can be filled up in 5 minutes from tens of thousands of gas stations across the US. It is not Tesla vs Honda it is electric vs ICE.

You can’t charge a Honda at home, and that with a 200+ mile range covers the vast majority of usage. And then when you do need to drive 200+ miles in a day, which for most people is a handful of days a year, you can use chargers which add 100 miles in 10 minutes. The extent of the charging network is really the only major issue left. It depends on your use case, for an urban, suburban setting or as a second car it’s…

> You can’t charge a Honda at home

Honda Clarity begs to differ.

> And then when you do need to drive 200+ miles in a day, which for most people is a handful of days a year, you can use chargers which add 100 miles in 10 minutes.

Not as good as a "charger" (Gas Station) that adds 300 miles in 2 minutes.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you. You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensi…

Where are you hearing about these short term problems? If it's in social media, anyone reading may want to examine your own media intake and potential biases inherent to any story about publicly traded companies. There are huge interests at stake on both sides of the bull/bear aisle for all these controversial tech companies. Tesla is not alone in receiving very high-level scrutiny, it's merely more of a lightning ro…

I actually get almost all of my Tesla news from Tesla fan communities.
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