Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

Post by blhack » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:03 PM UTC

bksenior wrote: post #112

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

Post by bjl » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

pmart123 wrote: post #166

notfromhere wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing

I'd be skeptical about this. The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. Unfortunately, Solar-city and taking on convertible debt vs. equity have shrunk down their runway. Had they not done the related party transaction and issued equity, I think they could ramp production at a slower rate without the quality issues you hear about. I do…

Post by jressey » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:05 PM UTC

gordon_freeman wrote: post #170

If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:06 PM UTC

yumraj wrote: post #134

Klathmon wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps an…

If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around. Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a b…

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 5:08 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #164

jfoster wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you talked to Tesla owners much about this? I think you'll find that they do value the package far beyond the mechanics that move the car. In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. I see that Tesla is very serious about bringing the benefits of autonomy to market across all their vehicles.

> In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. Waymo has full self-driving in limited public commercial use; there is no way that they can be charscterized as “taking their time” compared to people marketing less than full autonomy now with promises of full autonomy at some unspecified time in the fut…