Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#21

Post by sschueller » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:31 PM UTC

this_user wrote: post #7

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.

Tesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3]

At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge?

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA

[3] https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#22

Post by _ea1k » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:36 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #4

Everybody knew this was coming: one month of deliveries on the boat to Europe, the availability of the 3 outside of North America affecting demand for the S & X outside of North America, and news of the Y Osborne'ing the X. The numbers for S/X are worse than expected, but I'm sure it's within the bounds of Tesla's planning scenarios.

Well, yeah, parts of it were expected. The part about accelerating the shipping of cars to China because of soft demand was a little out of the blue, though.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#23

Post by adrr » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:37 PM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #10

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

This is about deliveries, not demand. They still have a large backlog of orders, and they haven't even entered the European market yet.

Model 3 isn't back ordered. When I was ordering mine last week everything showed a 2-week delivery date(mid-range, long range, performance). After ordering I picked mine up two days later. Later after reading the Tesla forums, I could have called up Tesla and got a discount on the car if they had it sitting in inventory since they are trying to move inventory.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#24

Post by Xixi » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:37 PM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #10

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

This is about deliveries, not demand. They still have a large backlog of orders, and they haven't even entered the European market yet.

They started delivery of the Model 3 in Europe in February. But Tesla's cars are quite a bit too bulky for many European countries, where Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe dominate sales.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#25

Post by Reason077 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:39 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #21

this_user wrote: post #7

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.

Tesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3] At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge?…

"Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?"

Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#26

Post by gizmo » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:41 PM UTC

this_user wrote: post #7

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.

The analyist with the best track record (and it isn't even close) is @coverdrive12 on twitter and he called 65,000 optimistic yesterday. This big miss doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has followed those who track the VINs, shipping data, and activity at the Tesla stores.

I should also point out that Musk's reiterated guidance of 500,000 cars this year is absolutely absurd at this point.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#27

Post by Dumblydorr » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:43 PM UTC

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#28

Post by kasey_junk » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:44 PM UTC

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

genie514 wrote: post #8

This figure makes me wonder how other car manufacturers are able to generate demand. Honda alone sells 1m+ cars per year in the US. For all the news, Tesla will likely make 400k deliveries during entire year around the world.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

I am definitely uneducated & also unlikely to ever buy a luxury car at the Tesla price point. But if I weren’t what electric car would I buy?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#29

Post by sschueller » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:47 PM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #25

sschueller wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3] At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge?…

"Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?" Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.

But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#30

Post by _Microft » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 1:48 PM UTC

Dumblydorr wrote: post #27

frontloadpro wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's market is extremely niche. Luxury car to an uneducated car buyer. Car enthusiasts won't get a Tesla because Tesla's ARE inferior to the competition at that price point. You don't buy a Tesla because you want your car to work for 2 years without breaking, you buy a Tesla to show friends. I know luxury Ford products sold 20k/yr, and those were some seriously high end SUVs. Same price point. I cannot see how Tea…

Teslas are superior, not inferior. It's simple physics, BEV means higher acceleration, lower center of gravity, better cabin volume, quieter, and most importantly: you don't contribute nearly as much to destroying the climate or causing asthma and emphysema in children. How do you counter these basic BEV advantages? Are you in favor of releasing emissions for thousands of years?

The quality of the interior, not the technical part, is said to be pretty low for the price class that the Model S or X are in.