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The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

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Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#71
post #28
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years" based on what?

20+% increase by 2015-2030 https://www.statista.com/statistics/547100/projected-base-oi... A more realistic assessment from Shell Oil is that oil demand continues to grow over the next 20 years, a view shared by rival BP and energy consultants like Wood Mackenzie. https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2018/09/18/forecast... Long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 15.8 mb/d, rising from 95.4 mb/d in 2016 to…

[deleted]

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#72
post #21
post #2

Good. The quicker it fades, the quicker the US can stop supporting this brutal, vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture. Also, the more pressure there will be to switch to a non fossile fuel energy source. It can't happen quickly enough.

Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a measure that would codify into law a $38 billion aid package to Israel. Clearly the US is about many things but ethics and human rights are only fringe concerns, let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

> Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel.

Oh hello there, a nice example of anti-semitism.

> let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

Believe it or not, Israel is the only democracy in the area (aside from Kurdish Rojava but that one unfortunately isn't recognized as an independent state).

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#73
post #3

Less CO2 released into the atmosphere I guess? I always wonder about news like this. Is it wrong to assume that the company knew about this years ago already and made the rational decision not to tell everyone until the last minute? And how long have they known?

When I started studying economics the most baffling thing I learned was that the total amount of Oil we had was increasing and not decreasing. That weird fact kind of made me learn the basic concepts better and I think I have learned not to read too much into these sort of news items. Journalist often lack this outlook. The world is not going to run out of Oil ever. The world is more likely to run out of "need for oi…

In the 80's, OPEC tied the amount of oil a country can produce to their stated reserves. This led to the OPEC countries steadily increasing their stated reserves. This, combined with heavy and unconventional reserves being found in South America and Canada, has resulted in a huge increase of stated world oil reserves. The cost of extraction is not factored in to this figure though. This does mean that we will never "run out of oil", but the cost of extracting it will steadily increase, causing other energy sources to eventually become economical or palatable (eg, nuclear, or coal - there's loads of coal still. Good luck stopping China from powering its economy with coal for the next 100 years).

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#74
post #2

Good. The quicker it fades, the quicker the US can stop supporting this brutal, vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture. Also, the more pressure there will be to switch to a non fossile fuel energy source. It can't happen quickly enough.

The US was a net exporter of crude oil as recently as December, 2018. Indeed, only an idiosyncrasy of the law, reversed in 2015, prevented the comparably colossal, richest country in the world from being a net exporter until very recently.

This is complete and utter rubbish. I do not know where you got this from, care to share?

The US used to be the worlds largest net importer of crude oil since at least the 1950s, and only recently (2016 or 2017) got overtaken by China. The US is by far the largest consumer of oil, using circa 20 million barrels per day, while producing around 12.5 million. Besides China, no other country even uses as much oil as the US imports.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#75
post #56
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. Ultimately all provided by renewalable sources. Sure the price of certain forms of energy (wood fire, oil ...) may go up over time but while that happens cheaper sources appear and ultimately take over.

"Renewable" doesn't mean "free energy". Constructing renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc) takes more energy than constructing an equivalent non-renewable energy source - this is the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). There's also space limits - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o What's apparent to me is that we live in a unique era where energy is abundant and cheap, which may never be re…

His conclusions seemed suspect to me - I remember doing out the calculations myself and came out with the conclusion that a 50x50 mile solar array in the Arizona desert could power the U.S. A 150x200 mile array in the Sahara could power the world. These are large arrays - they would be visible from space - but they are far from "country-sized", and quite doable if production costs come down (which they are - solar and wind are now cheaper than coal).

(You can check my math yourself: total world energy consumption = 109,136 TWh [1] / 8760 hours/year = 12.45 TW / 15 W/foot solar panel output [2] = 830B square feet / 27878400 ft^2/mi^2 = 29772 mi^2 = 150x200 mi array.)

Working through his math, I think the problem is that the UK is unique in a.) having a high population density b.) with a large per capita energy consumption and c.) a lot of cloud cover. On his chart, only Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, and Bahrain had it worse. The U.S. and China both had an order-of-magnitude better energy consumption per unit area; most of the world had two orders of magnitude. That's an argument for why Britain is fucked in the new globally-warmed, fossil-fuel-limited world, but not why the world is fucked. A lot of developing areas could see their energy consumption rise to rival the U.S. and still not bat an eye with solar power.

The EROEI of solar panels is between 8.7 - 34.2; wind is 20-50. [3] As long as this number is > 1 (which it is for nearly every energy source except biofuels) you can keep building production capacity indefinitely; you just invest the energy from previous capacity into building new capacity. Higher numbers of course let you do more other stuff while this is going on and build out faster, but it's just like capitalism. As long as you turn a profit on each panel, you'll have more as time goes on.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

[2] https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/solar-basics/how-much-electr...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_inve...

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#76
post #65
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bosch and about six other manufacturers of car parts disagree with you and expect sharply reduced demand for ICE-specific car parts.

I agree that at least 6 manufacturers of ICE-car parts in the EU and USA will be seeing reduced demand in the future

Maybe I should have put that differently. Maybe I should have added "AFAIK zero ICE parts manufacturers have issued forecasts of increased demand".

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#77
post #28
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years" based on what?

20+% increase by 2015-2030 https://www.statista.com/statistics/547100/projected-base-oi... A more realistic assessment from Shell Oil is that oil demand continues to grow over the next 20 years, a view shared by rival BP and energy consultants like Wood Mackenzie. https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2018/09/18/forecast... Long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 15.8 mb/d, rising from 95.4 mb/d in 2016 to…

That's depressing

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#78

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

Planes? There's no other alternative than biofuels unless you are happy landing every 2 hours.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#79
post #52
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more complicated than that. Some things keep growing (air traffic for instance), some not (power plants planning/construction for instance) and some seem in decline (ICE cars). If you can read .de-ese: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/1.4371221 You can add the apples and oranges up and get different results, depending on your judgment. And you get to choose what to assume: You may assume that what happens…

thanks it translated pretty well. So I think this story sounds incomplete. I do not think it is mutually exclusive to say that the Bosch burner factory is shutting down and that 95% of all new cars sold worldwide are combustion engine powered. German labor is extremely expensive and German taxes are incredibly high. Welcome to the global economy. I find it much more likely that much like everything else, the Chinese…

If you follow the links, you see that the reduced demand forcecasts are worldwide and most of the layoffs involved are in low-cost countries. Most the companies mentioned are global leaders in their small field (like one of the companies mentioned, which produces not cars, not engines, not cylinders, but parts for cylinders, and 80% of its workforce are in low-wage countries, and its customers are all over the world).

A region in Germany is likely to be badly affected and that gets most of the wording. Don't let that fool you. When the investor guidance says "challenging outlook", it doesn't mean "we'll lay off a few people at HQ but the factories will be fine".

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#80
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. Ultimately all provided by renewalable sources. Sure the price of certain forms of energy (wood fire, oil ...) may go up over time but while that happens cheaper sources appear and ultimately take over.

> To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. This is not at all obvious to this casual observer. Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate. We can never produce more energy than the earth radiates away, for obvious reason. With current trajectories we will release more energy than earth radiates away in less than 200 years. I'm not sure how th…

Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate only because Earth's temperature is approximately constant. Actual black-body radiation is governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann law [1], and is proportional to temperature^4. A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, which then serves to moderate the temperature.

In practice, the total energy consumption of the Earth is bounded by the amount of solar energy that falls on the earth, which is about 100,000 times greater than current total world energy consumption. For what civilizations might look like that exceed that, check out the Kardashev scale [2], which classifies civilizations by the size of the astronomical object whose energy they harness. Type 1 civilizations harness a planet, Type 2 harness a star, Type 3 harness a galaxy. We're a lowly Type 0 civilization, which means that we have not yet attained the technology needed to make full use out of all of our planet's resources.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_body#Radiative_cooling

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

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