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The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

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Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#51

Post by adrianN »

govg wrote: post #44
vichu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

Oil isn't somehow magical in any manner - everything that oil does today can be boiled down to supplying kinetic energy. We don't use its chemical properties in any special way, it just happens to be among the most efficient in terms of calories per kg. With advances in battery tech, and large-scale shift to renewables, I think running out of oil is largely a non-issue in the long run (of course we'll have pains in s…

It is pretty useful as a base for all kinds of chemicals. All plastics for example are made from oil.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#52

Post by max_wen »

Arnt wrote: post #48
max_wen wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plateaued where? In California and Europe maybe but not in the rest of the world.

It's more complicated than that. Some things keep growing (air traffic for instance), some not (power plants planning/construction for instance) and some seem in decline (ICE cars). If you can read .de-ese: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/1.4371221 You can add the apples and oranges up and get different results, depending on your judgment. And you get to choose what to assume: You may assume that what happens…

thanks it translated pretty well.

So I think this story sounds incomplete. I do not think it is mutually exclusive to say that the Bosch burner factory is shutting down and that 95% of all new cars sold worldwide are combustion engine powered. German labor is extremely expensive and German taxes are incredibly high. Welcome to the global economy.

I find it much more likely that much like everything else, the Chinese car market wants cars manufactured in China and that those China factories source from Chinese vendors. It's no different than the electronics industry.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#53

Post by Arnt »

max_wen wrote: post #33
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> based on what? Rising popularity of electric cars, increasing vehicle efficiency in general, potential legislation targeting climate change, etc.

- Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful - The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market - Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening

Bosch and about six other manufacturers of car parts disagree with you and expect sharply reduced demand for ICE-specific car parts.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#55

Post by perfunctory »

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

> but given a 1-2mm per day average

Where did you get this number from? They are not pumping at their maximum capacity but I understand it's pretty close on average

"Saudi Arabia briefly pumped a record of more than 11 million barrels a day in late 2018."

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#56

Post by ppf »

chvid wrote: post #39
chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. Ultimately all provided by renewalable sources. Sure the price of certain forms of energy (wood fire, oil ...) may go up over time but while that happens cheaper sources appear and ultimately take over.

"Renewable" doesn't mean "free energy". Constructing renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc) takes more energy than constructing an equivalent non-renewable energy source - this is the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). There's also space limits - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o

What's apparent to me is that we live in a unique era where energy is abundant and cheap, which may never be repeated (unless fusion power is developed).

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#57

Post by reitanqild »

govg wrote: post #44
vichu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

Oil isn't somehow magical in any manner - everything that oil does today can be boiled down to supplying kinetic energy. We don't use its chemical properties in any special way, it just happens to be among the most efficient in terms of calories per kg. With advances in battery tech, and large-scale shift to renewables, I think running out of oil is largely a non-issue in the long run (of course we'll have pains in s…

> We don't use its chemical properties in any special way, it just happens to be among the most efficient in terms of calories per kg.

As far as I am aware a lot of oil is used as raw material in chemical industry, not only as energy source.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#58

Post by hliyan »

senectus1 wrote: post #6

so when the Saudi start realising their spigot of unlimited money is starting to run out, i wonder how they'll behave. My bet is, invasion forces. I can hope though that they'll push for space industry

They are rapidly becoming investors.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#59

Post by cedivad »

chvid wrote: post #39
chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. Ultimately all provided by renewalable sources. Sure the price of certain forms of energy (wood fire, oil ...) may go up over time but while that happens cheaper sources appear and ultimately take over.

I think you meant going to infinity.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#60

Post by ppf »

benj111 wrote: post #4

Interesting to consider the politics of this. On the one hand Saudi Arabia and others want to give the illusion of the wealth lasting for ever. On the other hand, lower reserves would lead to higher prices, which is something they'd want to maximise.

Not really - they are relying on keeping output high to depress prices. Otherwise, other sources of oil (eg, US shale, South American oil sands) that are more expensive to extract become worthwhile, sending oil revenues to those other countries.
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