The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed • Hacker News Board

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#41

Post by saagarjha » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:45 AM UTC

kbergqt wrote: post #21

mnm1 wrote: post #2

Good. The quicker it fades, the quicker the US can stop supporting this brutal, vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture. Also, the more pressure there will be to switch to a non fossile fuel energy source. It can't happen quickly enough.

Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a measure that would codify into law a $38 billion aid package to Israel. Clearly the US is about many things but ethics and human rights are only fringe concerns, let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

> the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture

It’s possible to come up with examples of this for every country, including the United States. That being said, this is whataboutism.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#42

Post by tqkxzugoaupvwqr » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:47 AM UTC

doctorpangloss wrote: post #5

mnm1 wrote: post #2

Good. The quicker it fades, the quicker the US can stop supporting this brutal, vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture. Also, the more pressure there will be to switch to a non fossile fuel energy source. It can't happen quickly enough.

The US was a net exporter of crude oil as recently as December, 2018. Indeed, only an idiosyncrasy of the law, reversed in 2015, prevented the comparably colossal, richest country in the world from being a net exporter until very recently.

Putting my tinfoil hat on: From a geopolitical standpoint, the USA’s longterm strategy likely was to deplete the oil reserves of foreign nations while keeping a large domestic reserve until the end. This has the advantage of being able to force those nations into submission once their oil runs out. When that is the case, domestic production is ramped up to cover domestic needs and the needs of foreign nations … as long as they back the interests of the US.

This decades-long strategy could have worked brilliantly until the end if it wasn’t for clean energy. Now that it’s clear that clean energy sources will replace fossil fuels sooner than later, all the domestic oil sitting in the ground needs to be extracted and sold as fast as possible before it becomes worthless. Since the US and foreign nations won’t depend on oil in the future, the US won’t need its oil reserve and floods the global market with all they’ve got for that sweet, sweet money.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#43

Post by anonymou2 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:47 AM UTC

Iv wrote: post #31

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

What I am the most worried about the depletion of oil is that most people assume it will be a bell curve, like US' (conventional) oil production was. Thing is, it was a bell as people switched to other more profitable sources of oil as US' oil was becoming more expensive. I fear the depletion of world's reserve could look a lot more like a cliff. The absence of alternatives changes a lot the fundamentals of the probl…

the seneca cliff: https://thesenecatrap.blogspot.com/

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#44

Post by govg » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:53 AM UTC

vichu wrote: post #38

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

Oil isn't somehow magical in any manner - everything that oil does today can be boiled down to supplying kinetic energy. We don't use its chemical properties in any special way, it just happens to be among the most efficient in terms of calories per kg. With advances in battery tech, and large-scale shift to renewables, I think running out of oil is largely a non-issue in the long run (of course we'll have pains in shifting, but there will not be any long term drawbacks)

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#45

Post by hackerbabz » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:54 AM UTC

vichu wrote: post #38

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

How would you argue that the answer is not, "no"?

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#46

Post by foota » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:59 AM UTC

hackerbabz wrote: post #45

vichu wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it. An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

How would you argue that the answer is not, "no"?

I mean, we only really started to use oil industrially in like the mid 1800s, right? We'd already developed a lot of technology, doesn't seem ridiculous to think we could have gotten from there to here without oil. And maybe we'd have developed biofuels sooner?

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#47

Post by Someone » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 8:01 AM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #4

Interesting to consider the politics of this. On the one hand Saudi Arabia and others want to give the illusion of the wealth lasting for ever. On the other hand, lower reserves would lead to higher prices, which is something they'd want to maximise.

No, they want to maximize the amount of money they get out of their oil, with money they get now being worth more than money they will get next year, with that being worth more than money they get a decade from now, etc.

Also, the house of Saud isn’t playing only that game. They also want to stay in power. They’re not universally popular in the region, so that means listening to their faraway supporters, who want to keep oil prices low.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#48

Post by Arnt » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 8:03 AM UTC

max_wen wrote: post #36

hanniabu wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just going off of memory, I believe I read that gasoline consumption has plateaued, meaning we're weaning off of it and it's being supplemented by alternative sources. I think it's a fair assumption that this indicates a shift that will lead to declining numbers in the next 20-30 years, if not sooner.

Plateaued where? In California and Europe maybe but not in the rest of the world.

It's more complicated than that. Some things keep growing (air traffic for instance), some not (power plants planning/construction for instance) and some seem in decline (ICE cars).

If you can read .de-ese: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/1.4371221

You can add the apples and oranges up and get different results, depending on your judgment. And you get to choose what to assume: You may assume that what happens in California in 2019 definitely won't happen in the rest of the US in the coming years, or that it will. Et cetera.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#49

Post by de_watcher » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 8:06 AM UTC

carlos22 wrote: post #37

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> based on what? Rising popularity of electric cars, increasing vehicle efficiency in general, potential legislation targeting climate change, etc.

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years). > increasing vehicle efficiency in general There is not much to gain, the vehicles are gaining weight in the last 2 decades (SUVs etc.). Thats eating up the small improvements in efficiency. A real big improvement is not in sight. > potential legislation targeting climate change We can…

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow

Starting from the 2019 the range and price came to the point where they are suddenly viable in EU.

Then there will be a used electric car wave because of the low-power charging infrastructure catching up and making older short range models actually useful.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#50

Post by Tepix » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 8:13 AM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #41

kbergqt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a measure that would codify into law a $38 billion aid package to Israel. Clearly the US is about many things but ethics and human rights are only fringe concerns, let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

> the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture It’s possible to come up with examples of this for every country, including the United States. That being said, this is whataboutism.

Few countries have meddled in the affairs of other states like the US.