The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed • Hacker News Board

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#31

Post by Iv » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:32 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #23

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

What I am the most worried about the depletion of oil is that most people assume it will be a bell curve, like US' (conventional) oil production was.

Thing is, it was a bell as people switched to other more profitable sources of oil as US' oil was becoming more expensive. I fear the depletion of world's reserve could look a lot more like a cliff.

The absence of alternatives changes a lot the fundamentals of the problem.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#32

Post by cfontes » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:34 AM UTC

cjslep wrote: post #27

chrischen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

Good luck making plastic.

There is already bio-plastic, it's just expensive because oil is super cheap.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#33

Post by max_wen » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:35 AM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #26

max_wen wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years" based on what?

> based on what? Rising popularity of electric cars, increasing vehicle efficiency in general, potential legislation targeting climate change, etc.

- Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful

- The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market

- Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#34

Post by martinpw » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:36 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #22

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

It's a big problem for them. In the case of Saudi Arabia, it's the combination of oil production ceiling vs population, that is almost guaranteed to be the Kingdom's undoing. Their population growth is slowly unsettling their stability by debasing the per capita well-being. This has resulted recently in record unemployment and a struggling economy.[1] The record youth unemployment in particular is very concerning in…

Another factor is that the rapid population growth combined with subsidised oil prices means their own population uses a large and increasing amount of its own production - around 1/4 of total production is already consumed domestically, some even burned to generate electricity. That ratio is likely to keep rising with population growth and resistance to any attempts to reduce subsidies, so even if production remains flat, exports will decline.

This chart is a few years old already but shows over 3m barrels/day being consumed internally by 2014, must be significantly higher by now:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Saudi-Arabia/oil_consumptio...

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#35

Post by isatty » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:37 AM UTC

kbergqt wrote: post #21

mnm1 wrote: post #2

Good. The quicker it fades, the quicker the US can stop supporting this brutal, vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture. Also, the more pressure there will be to switch to a non fossile fuel energy source. It can't happen quickly enough.

Well the US supports another vile regime and its disgusting human rights practices and culture, namely Israel. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a measure that would codify into law a $38 billion aid package to Israel. Clearly the US is about many things but ethics and human rights are only fringe concerns, let’s not pretend that Saudi Arabia is their only shady ally.

He didn't say they were the _only_ shady ally. Why are you derailing a discussion on Saudi Arabia with Israel?

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#36

Post by max_wen » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:38 AM UTC

hanniabu wrote: post #24

max_wen wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years" based on what?

Just going off of memory, I believe I read that gasoline consumption has plateaued, meaning we're weaning off of it and it's being supplemented by alternative sources. I think it's a fair assumption that this indicates a shift that will lead to declining numbers in the next 20-30 years, if not sooner.

Plateaued where? In California and Europe maybe but not in the rest of the world.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#37

Post by carlos22 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:38 AM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #26

max_wen wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years" based on what?

> based on what? Rising popularity of electric cars, increasing vehicle efficiency in general, potential legislation targeting climate change, etc.

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years).

> increasing vehicle efficiency in general There is not much to gain, the vehicles are gaining weight in the last 2 decades (SUVs etc.). Thats eating up the small improvements in efficiency. A real big improvement is not in sight.

> potential legislation targeting climate change We can hope for that, but with Trump in charge and Merkel in Auto-Germany ruling the EU it won't really happen. Hopefully this will change.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#38

Post by vichu » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:38 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #23

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

I wouldn't be too concerned as renewables and nuclear technology should be at the point where it would be able to pick up the slack - we know the end is coming and we can prepare for it.

An interesting thought experiment is whether or not humans (or some future species) would be able to reproduce the technological advancements that oil enabled given some sort of apocalypse scenario that resets us to year zero.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#39

Post by chvid » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:40 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #23

lefstathiou wrote: post #9

So 52 years worth of reserves assuming maximum capacity of 12mm barrels harvested a day. Now I am no mathematician but given a 1-2mm per day average and what will likely become a declining demand for oil over next 20-30 years, they have half a millennia worth of oil lying around. This well seems like a non issue to me.

52 years is a blip in human civilization. I'd be curious to see how in the grand scheme the depletion of oil looks. Will our tech/development boom grind to a halt all of a sudden? Do we switch to nuclear?

To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. Ultimately all provided by renewalable sources.

Sure the price of certain forms of energy (wood fire, oil ...) may go up over time but while that happens cheaper sources appear and ultimately take over.

Re: The Biggest Saudi Oil Field Is Fading Faster Than Anyone Guessed

#40

Post by saagarjha » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 7:42 AM UTC

KorematsuFred wrote: post #30

6nf wrote: post #3

Less CO2 released into the atmosphere I guess? I always wonder about news like this. Is it wrong to assume that the company knew about this years ago already and made the rational decision not to tell everyone until the last minute? And how long have they known?

When I started studying economics the most baffling thing I learned was that the total amount of Oil we had was increasing and not decreasing. That weird fact kind of made me learn the basic concepts better and I think I have learned not to read too much into these sort of news items. Journalist often lack this outlook. The world is not going to run out of Oil ever. The world is more likely to run out of "need for oi…

> The world is not going to run out of Oil ever

This is technically true but not really a great way to look at the issue. We will always have oil; it will just get progressively more difficult to extract it. The point where we “run out” is when it is no longer economical to extract it from whatever deposit it’s in.