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Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

bostonreview.net

11–20 of 143 posts

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#11
This paragraph seems bothersome:

"Most striking, however, is that when you hold educational attainment and other observable worker characteristics constant, pay is starkly different depending on the firm where you work, even within narrowly-defined education categories, industries and occupations. This is prima-facie evidence that the human capital model in a competitive labor market is an increasingly poor way to explain earnings inequality. Wages for similar workers do not, in fact, equilibrate across firms."

An analogy I like here is one of a basketball school. Imagine you take x students, all of a relatively reasonable capability, and put them into a school. And you give them all an identical education in basketball. Nobody in the world would ever then expect these students to be of roughly equal ability after they graduate the school 4 years later. There would be vast differences between their abilities at that point. Even if you control for obvious genetic factors such as height and perhaps athleticism, there'd still be absolutely tremendous differences. There have been thousands of professional basketball players -- all in the 0.0001% of society, yet even given that ultra-selectivity Michael Jordan stands head and shoulders above nearly all of them yet. And the same is true in most of everything. If you want to go a purely mental game, we have a series of chess players -- Paul Morphy, Jose Raul Capablanca, Bobby Fischer, Gary Kasparov, and now Magnus Carlsen that in turn stand leaps and bounds ahead of a player pool (of their respective times) that is/was once again already made up only of the most capable 0.0001%.

If it's somehow not clear, the point of this is that just because A and B go to the same school and end up with roughly the same grades - that says absolutely nothing whatsoever about the ability of A or B. I would argue that not only is the stated observation not "prima-facie evidence that the human capital model in a competitive labor market is an increasingly poor way to explain earnings inequality" but rather the exact opposite! If companies were recruiting exclusively based upon observable characteristics it would mean these less measurable differences that separate the good (or even the rather less than good) from the great would not be being factored in. That would be rather strong evidence that effective competition was not correlating to positive results. But we have the exact opposite!

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#12
On someone’s advice, I just skimmed the first 2/3 of his book on his data collection. Even his critics mostly acknowledge that his professional lifetime work on data collection is high quality. I carefully read the latter part of the book on his conclusions and I generally agree with him, partially because it passes my ‘common sense filter’ and partly because I am skeptical of mainstream economists. A little off topic, but reading the mises.org material in 2006 convinced me to temporarily get out of the stock market so my skepticism of mainstream economics at least paid off that one time.

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#14
> This dearth of reaction to such a critical work is not healthy. It is as if the rapturous reception by the public increased the resentment among Piketty’s academic economist colleagues. As an appeal to the public to resolve, or at least have a say in, what the experts consider their own domain, Piketty appears to have questioned the very value of having a credentialed economics elite empowered to make policy in the name of the public interest but not answerable to public opinion. The economics elite, it seems, answered by stonewalling Capital in the Twenty-First Century, so it would not have the impact on economics research agendas that it merits.

This disdain for those that have found popularity is fairly common in many fields. There seems to be a simultaneous feeling of 1) but what about this super complicated way of viewing it, this popular piece misses all these details, and 2) maybe a bit of jealousy.

I'm not an economist, in case it's not clear, and haven't had the time to read the book, but the critiques were short enough to read in an hour and convinced me that Piketty is right, because the critiques were so shallow and seemed like such motivated reasoning.

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#15
Are we still talking about this? Within months of the book’s release, readers had found many examples where his data selections had been incomplete. To the extent that the main points were invalidated or made far less convincing. When you include the full data in his analysis, the main conclusions are drawn into question. There are many very thorough blog posts by economists you can easily Google.

It’d be like if Origin of Species came out, but evolution was actually wrong, and Darwin had only seemed right at first because he left out the species that didn’t fit his model.

I don’t think Piketty did this on purpose, by the way. He just didn’t push hard enough on the data that he didn’t want to find fault with.

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#16

Are we still talking about this? Within months of the book’s release, readers had found many examples where his data selections had been incomplete. To the extent that the main points were invalidated or made far less convincing. When you include the full data in his analysis, the main conclusions are drawn into question. There are many very thorough blog posts by economists you can easily Google. It’d be like if Ori…

This would be an excellent time to cite sources.

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#17
post #3

Because, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!". Economists' careers as receivers of grants, policy advisors, members of prestigious think tanks and organizations, and pundits, depends on being good at promoting whatever aligns with the elite's interests. The scientific parts of economics are merely applied math (including game theory), and quite…

Exactly. Capital was years in the making and contained an unprecedented amount of historical empirical data to support its central thesis, and it gets ignored. Meanwhile, Reinhart-Rogoff, a fraudulent paper full of elementary statistical and programming errors that should’ve gotten its authors fired, was loudly paraded around as gospel by politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. Guess which one served elite interests the best.

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#18
post #3

Because, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!". Economists' careers as receivers of grants, policy advisors, members of prestigious think tanks and organizations, and pundits, depends on being good at promoting whatever aligns with the elite's interests. The scientific parts of economics are merely applied math (including game theory), and quite…

To an extent, I suspect you're right.

I further suspect that economists, as a field, will continue to claim that their models, metrics, theories, and policy advice are good, while complaining about the inexplicable rise of populism, right up until somebody sets up a guillotine in front of Goldman-Sachs. (Populism is easy to explain: the peasants are revolting.)

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#19
post #3

Because, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!". Economists' careers as receivers of grants, policy advisors, members of prestigious think tanks and organizations, and pundits, depends on being good at promoting whatever aligns with the elite's interests. The scientific parts of economics are merely applied math (including game theory), and quite…

> Because, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!". Alternative hypothesis: they disagree. Disagreeing isn't ignoring. It isn't a conspiracy. It's just disagreement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na%C3%AFve_realism_(psychology...

"But perhaps the greatest rebuke of Piketty to be found among academic economics is not contained in any of these overt or veiled attacks on his scholarship and interpretation, but rather in the deafening silence that greets it, as well as inequality in general, in broad swathes of the field—even to this day. You can search through the websites of several leading economics departments or the official lists of working papers curated by federal agencies and not come across a single publication that has any obvious or even secondary bearing on the themes raised by Capital in the Twenty-First Century, even in order to oppose them. It is as though the central facts, controversies, and policy proposals that have consumed our public debate about the economy for three years are of little-to-no importance to the people who are paid and tenured to conduct a lifetime’s research into how the economy works."

Re: Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? (2017)

#20

Are we still talking about this? Within months of the book’s release, readers had found many examples where his data selections had been incomplete. To the extent that the main points were invalidated or made far less convincing. When you include the full data in his analysis, the main conclusions are drawn into question. There are many very thorough blog posts by economists you can easily Google. It’d be like if Ori…

I am always interested to read contrasting arguments and weigh a subject's merits based on those arguments so I'd love to see those critiques.
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