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Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

bbc.com

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Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#31

Post by CptFribble »

wenc wrote: post #22
CptFribble wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the GP means that central planning was hard to pull off without modern communication tech like phones and internet. So, the western style of federated semi-autonomous regions proliferated, since it didn't depend on strong central control. However, in the age of instant global communications, it may be that effective central planning is "better," or at least possible. And now, the individualistic model may not…

Centralized planning works if leaders are "right" about things, and have a certain measure of benevolence. Many East Asian economies (Singapore, South Korea, China, Taiwan, etc.) had dictators that did the "right" thing and brought about huge economic growth. However, centralized planning has one fatal evolutionary flaw -- any errors from the top are amplified. The biggest example of this was China closing its ports…

Agreed. I feel modern tech could enable a style of government that combines central planning with fast cycles of democratic leadership selection, allowing a sort of "fail faster" approach to policy experimentation so-to-speak, but only when combined with a strong safety net to catch the people who fall through the mistakes.

But such a thing would probably require forming a new society from scratch. As you mentioned, the USA was the "Great Experiment" that many old-world royalists scoffed at. Maybe the time will come for another?

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#32

Post by ardy42 »

> "The seemingly innocuous move comes at a sensitive time for Europe and the European Union, where there is suddenly a great deal of trepidation not only about China, but about working out how Europe or the EU should adapt and react to a changing world," Prof Frankopan told the BBC.

Forgive my ignorance, but aren't many EU decisions required to be unanimous? So if China has close ties to Italy, could it use it's influence to convince Italy to "veto" hypothetical EU sanctions against Chinese human rights violations or other actions that are good for the EU but against Chinese domestic and foreign policy?

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#33

Post by vicpara »

Centralised planning will beat democratised decision making if they indeed manage to respond in time to a changing environment. The advancements in tech and communication allows you today to be more effective than ever. Think about global corporations with offices around the world. They are effectively operating under a centralised model and they do it very well.

What China learnt in the past 4 decades was how to manage the beast, not behead the messenger and have an effective planning anchored in true market signals.

Another point worth mentioning is that the Four Tigers are working with a planning and investment horizon of 30-50 years. Since they don't have to justify every four years about what they've been up to, they can be more effective in chasing bigger investments that have a longer-term ROI such as research, education, strategic industrial branches.

Now how do you compete with that?

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#34

Post by cl42 »

dghughes wrote: post #18
cl42 wrote: post #7

> The European Union is also worried about unfair competition from Chinese companies, which are controlled by the Chinese government and benefit from the state’s financial backing. EU leaders in Brussels are preparing a strategy to counter the growing influence of China, which they describe as a “systemic rival.” Most of the Western articles I've read express concern over Italy's involvement in the BRI. However, I am…

Look at Sri Lanka where nothing has been done except environmental disaster. Now Sri Lanka owes its soul, and land, to China. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/asia/sri-lanka-chin... Montenegro has a bridge to nowhere built by Chinese workers instead of locals. Billions owed to China for a useless bridge. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-europe-mon... It seems to be China "invading" countries…

Thanks for this. Do you think it would be different if it's an EU member state? i.e., with EU oversight (assuming there is any), the BRI funds and investments could be applied and used differently.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#35

Post by rayiner »

cdmckay wrote: post #10
ngcc_hk wrote: post #9

[flagged]

Because everyone is just flourishing under the US world order.

Not everyone, but the current, post-Soviet, US-led world order has seen the greatest reduction in world poverty probably ever in history. South Asia is heading from being poor to being middle income, the AIDS epidemic is in retreat in Africa, etc. My home country of Bangladesh was known for its extreme poverty when we left in the 1980s. Now, thanks to capitalism and westernization, poverty has plummeted, and it is on pace to become a middle-income economy by 2021.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#36

Post by TXV »

throwawawua4234 wrote: post #16

Is there any knowledge on why East Asian Tiger economies do so well with state backing ? The major takeaway from the 'Princes of Yen' by Richard Werner is about how Japan soared from a destroyed country to an economic powerhouse, before being brought down by the bankers at the BOJ, ostensibly to change the system from a 'state backed economy' to a US-styled one. Ditto with the Asian tigers in Thailand, S Korea etc. S…

> I don’t see what the big deal is TBH

The main issue is that Italy is part of the EU, and also one of its major economies. The argument about unfairness is absolutely not a joke. In fact, it’s the main point. Doing business in China as a foreign-owned company in many sectors of the economy is, simply put, a huge challenge, when not outright impossible. This is mainly due to opaque or protectionist regulations. State-backed competitors also make the market harder to penetrate since they will always win price wars. Then add lack of concern for intellectual property.

Chinese companies don’t have these problems in Europe. Not even close. They enjoy all the advantages of a (basically) free market, whereas the opposite is not true. This is where the “unfairness” is.

The EU has been trying to find some leverage against China to balance the scale for some time now, albeit our efforts have been mild. That’s because the EU doesn’t have a common foreign affairs strategy and individual member states are always more concerned with their internal politics to actually go figure out one.

So China can just come here, pick a country that can be easily enticed by the promise of bilateral cooperation and handsome investments, and all of a sudden the EU now has a member who will start voting against anti-China policies.

Without a unified will, the EU member countries don’t have the contractual power to demand and obtain anything from China. We will be an easy game for them.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#37

Post by netsharc »

vicpara wrote: post #33

Centralised planning will beat democratised decision making if they indeed manage to respond in time to a changing environment. The advancements in tech and communication allows you today to be more effective than ever. Think about global corporations with offices around the world. They are effectively operating under a centralised model and they do it very well. What China learnt in the past 4 decades was how to man…

> Since they don't have to justify every four years about what they've been up to

I think saner governments manage that pretty well, they know research is good and beneficial so there's no questioning.

Meanwhile in the USA, coal is or is not a health risk as policy dictates.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#38

Post by trophycase »

netsharc wrote: post #37
vicpara wrote: post #33

Centralised planning will beat democratised decision making if they indeed manage to respond in time to a changing environment. The advancements in tech and communication allows you today to be more effective than ever. Think about global corporations with offices around the world. They are effectively operating under a centralised model and they do it very well. What China learnt in the past 4 decades was how to man…

> Since they don't have to justify every four years about what they've been up to I think saner governments manage that pretty well, they know research is good and beneficial so there's no questioning. Meanwhile in the USA, coal is or is not a health risk as policy dictates.

Oh please, China burns coal and pollutes their air, then publishes fake air quality index numbers and won't let their people talk about the air quality.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#39

Post by Tsubasachan »

vicpara wrote: post #33

Centralised planning will beat democratised decision making if they indeed manage to respond in time to a changing environment. The advancements in tech and communication allows you today to be more effective than ever. Think about global corporations with offices around the world. They are effectively operating under a centralised model and they do it very well. What China learnt in the past 4 decades was how to man…

This is Italy, anyone can beat them. Maybe now Italy can beg Beijing for money instead of Frankfurt.

Re: Italy Joins China's New Silk Road Project

#40

Post by 0815test »

rayiner wrote: post #35
cdmckay wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because everyone is just flourishing under the US world order.

Not everyone, but the current, post-Soviet, US-led world order has seen the greatest reduction in world poverty probably ever in history. South Asia is heading from being poor to being middle income, the AIDS epidemic is in retreat in Africa, etc. My home country of Bangladesh was known for its extreme poverty when we left in the 1980s. Now, thanks to capitalism and westernization, poverty has plummeted, and it is on…

The "US-led" part has very little to do with that reduction in world poverty; if anything, it's all about countries other than the U.S. adopting the same sorts of market-based norms and institutions that the West themselves adopted in the 1980s. To think of socially-beneficial innovations as "Westernizing" just because the West got there first is pretty clearly a fallacy - https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/07/25/how-the-west-was-won/
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