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A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

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Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What happens when people realize transfer medium is being debased? They'll obviously try not to store value in that transfer medium. Arguably, to some proponents of MMT/in some versions of MMT, this is a feature and not a bug. Economically speaking, stored value at rest isn't "interesting", it's a potential indicator of waste or inefficiency of resource utilization in current flows. I've heard the argument that the…

I find the idea that private firms over-save and the way fix that is to print money to be disagreeable, and not an application of scientific or economical mindset, but the mere psychology of wanting to get results today at the cost of results tomorrow.

Some proponents of MMT strongly believe that we already live in a world where we fix private firm lending/saving problems by printing money, in the ways that for instance the US Federal Reserve makes 0-interest loans to banks. That certainly has economics and science studying that today.

A lot of MMT talks only about exploring better options for how that existing effort/flows is redirected, and if we would get testably better results from other more interesting configurations, not about creating some new tools out of thin air simply because they "want" to.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#182
post #131

It seems obvious once you think about it that at the federal level taxes don't pay for spending. The fed can print as much money as it wants. Taxes only serve to remove excess cash from the economy and keep inflation down.

Look at Argentina: there is a very high inflation, and also there are very high taxes. I mean that what you mention does not look obvious to me, as you can reach a point where even very high taxes cannot counter inflation.

I generally agree, but take Argentina with a grain of salt. It is an exceptional economic case on any and all measures.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find the idea that private firms over-save and the way fix that is to print money to be disagreeable, and not an application of scientific or economical mindset, but the mere psychology of wanting to get results today at the cost of results tomorrow.

Some proponents of MMT strongly believe that we already live in a world where we fix private firm lending/saving problems by printing money, in the ways that for instance the US Federal Reserve makes 0-interest loans to banks. That certainly has economics and science studying that today. A lot of MMT talks only about exploring better options for how that existing effort/flows is redirected, and if we would get testab…

In my amateur economist models, I adjudicate over-saving as a symptom not the disease. It is clear that money issuing does not have a neutral effect (not the same as private firms investing, or private firms being taxed to fund a government project). In the end it comes back to the utilitarian-keynesian view that the government will be more efficient spending that money, or that such a thing would not have long-term effects on the exchange rate, savings, etc.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. I think the MMT argument is that one can reduce the money supply through taxation. From the article: > In MMT’s ideal world there would still be taxes, but their main purpose, aside from lessening inequality, would be as “offsets” to keep inflation under control. Taxes would drain just enough money from consum…

Increase spending by printing, and then increase spending by taxes, sounds like a big-gov wet-dream.

I think that you're correct using common terminology. The government takes in money as taxes, and creates money through printing:

spending = taxes + printed money new money supply = old money supply + printed money

But, I believe that MMT is saying that taxes and spending could be logically separated by assuming that all taxes go to the shredder and all spending comes from newly printed money:

spending = printed money new money supply = old money supply + (spending - taxes)

So it wouldn't be 'increasing spending by taxes', it would be 'reduce inflation by taxes'. The size of 'big-gov' should be measured as spending/GDP regardless of the actual tax rate. The tax rate would float depending on the current inflation target instead of on the current federal spending.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#185

Macroeconomics is a sufficiently complex topic that trying to understand it or discuss it at a "beginner level" is almost pointless. At that level, all you need to know is that any theory that promises some certain knowledge of what's going to happen if this or that happens and that it's all very simple, is almost certainly wrong.

> trying to understand it.. at a "beginner level" is almost pointless. Starting at the beginner level is where everyone starts when they want to learn something. By definition. Hardly pointless.

it's pointless if the plan is to learn at beginner level and stop there and then believe that you have a reasonable level of understanding to formulate opinions. If the plan is to learn it at the beginner level in order to keep learning and get to advanced level, then I agree it's not pointless

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#186
post #5

It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction. Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy. You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply because pr…

> MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction.

No, it's not. And that's backwards: MMT says that because you can always print more money, the only constraint on spending is inflation, not revenue, and that taxation serves the purposes of creating incentives by specific targeting and limiting inflation by it's overall level, but doesn't actually “pay for” spending in the balanced sense this applies to participants in an economy who are not the sovereign money issuer of the primary currency.

The key upshot of this is that:

(1) the idea that an excess of spending over revenue must be financed by debt owed to some particular party is an artifact of structures which obscure the fundamental nature of fiat currency and try to mimic commodity-based currency; and

(2) the idea of long-term budget balance as a goal is bunk Ina fist money system; in fact, as base money supply is tokens created by government issuing and spending them and destroyed by government recovering them, having a money supply in such a system is synonymous with long-term surplus of spending over revenue.

> Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy

Correct.

> You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply

You can't create additional aggregate purchasing power that way, but you can create new purchasing power for the entity holding the newly-printed money (at the expense of purchasing power of those holding existing money of th same currency, and with three side effect of also tranferring purchasing power from all holders of assets denominated in the currency to all holders of liability denominated in th currency.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might on newly issued debt - that still allows the ~40 trillion USD of existing private debt to be watered down, however.

The survey of economists that the article poo-poos includes the comment by one economist that a government can print to pay its own debts exactly once (because people loaning to the government figure it out quickly). This argument falls into the same boat: sure, the banks will change how they price loans, but for the lucky guys with loans it’ll be glorious!

> The survey of economists that the article poo-poos includes the comment by one economist that a government can print to pay its own debts exactly once

Which is true.

OTOH, MMT observes that the government doesn't actually need to acquire debts to pay for a gap between spending and revenue in the first place.

> This argument falls into the same boat: sure, the banks will change how they price loans, but for the lucky guys with loans it’ll be glorious!

Sure, and that's why runaway inflation is bad. MMT doesn't favor more-inflationary policy, it just recognizes that inflation, not the availability of revenue, is the constraint on government spending.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#188
post #5

It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. MMT says that the only constraint on spending is inflation, but also turns around and says that you can always print more money. That’s a contradiction. Printing more money does not change the real wealth in the economy. You can’t create additional purchasing power with an increase in the money supply because pr…

> It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation. I think the MMT argument is that one can reduce the money supply through taxation. From the article: > In MMT’s ideal world there would still be taxes, but their main purpose, aside from lessening inequality, would be as “offsets” to keep inflation under control. Taxes would drain just enough money from consum…

> I think the MMT argument is that one can reduce the money supply through taxation.

The MMT argument is stronger: taxes only exist in a fiat money system to reduce the money supply (and, to create behavioral incentives with specific targeting.) Viewing them as “paying for” government spending in a balanced sense where you need $1 in revenue (or debt financing which you pay back with interest to a lender) to pay for $1 in spending is, through an MMT lens, wrong, and the result of applying commodity money thinking in a fiat-money world.

> MMT also (AFAICT) seems to make the central bank subservient to the finance/treasury people, instead of independent (which is the modern way of doing things). This control of interest rates is important for technical reasons:

It need not: a system which deeply incorporates MMT might retain a central monetary authority separate from the authority that makes spending and tax-targeting decisions (calling this a “fiscal” authority is perhaps no longer apt), exercising interest rate levers to manage inflation and employment levels as the Fed does today; it might even give it more tools by assigning it then ability to set the rates of broad, non-behaviorally-targeted taxes (like to control a parameter that is a factor in the rates of all income tax brackets), as MMT recognizes that general tax level is an important money supply lever and nothing else. The importance of public confidence in the money supply remains in MMT, and having technocrats insulated somewhat from the pressures of legislative politics primarily responsible for administering such policy under broad policy goals remains, as well.

It probably wouldn't be constituted the way the Fed is, which is driven by the desire of the government to give bankers confidence in the currency because the government will be going to the bankers to borrow debt in the currency to fund deficits.

Because what it would do is eliminate the practice of acquiring debt to finance “deficit” spending in the first place, which changes the constituency at which monetary policy is aimed.

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some proponents of MMT strongly believe that we already live in a world where we fix private firm lending/saving problems by printing money, in the ways that for instance the US Federal Reserve makes 0-interest loans to banks. That certainly has economics and science studying that today. A lot of MMT talks only about exploring better options for how that existing effort/flows is redirected, and if we would get testab…

In my amateur economist models, I adjudicate over-saving as a symptom not the disease. It is clear that money issuing does not have a neutral effect (not the same as private firms investing, or private firms being taxed to fund a government project). In the end it comes back to the utilitarian-keynesian view that the government will be more efficient spending that money, or that such a thing would not have long-term…

In my amateur economist models, I explore economic systems with modified electrical engineering diagrams. Money as we define it and subsequently many forms of savings/over-saving are nearly as useless as Instantaneous Voltage (in Joules) or ultimately as abstractly uninteresting as Ground in a working system. It is current flows and movement that are actually interesting/useful, and the not very well defined equivalents for money to its first and second derivative metrics (electricity's Amperes and Coloumbs, for instance).

I have no idea how many proponents of MMT find interest in such similar engineering-oriented views of economics, but general economic theories of inflation/deflation from that point of view seem so primitively useless versus what we know of, say, electric resistance, inductance, capacitance, conductivity, etc.

I cannot tell you if my armchair theories are any better in the long term than the status quo or your preferred models, but only that MMT at least seems to be one of the few areas of economic study currently attempting to address them (albeit indirectly in many cases). That is also not necessarily proof that MMT is correct, just as my models don't ipso facto disprove status quo "wisdom".

Re: A Beginner’s Guide to MMT

#190
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It’s immediately obvious that increasing the money supply and spending the money will result in inflation." The money supply has almost quadrupled in the last 10 years, yet inflation has been low. MMT says that spending new money only causes inflation when the money is spent on stuff the private sector is also bidding for. Since that's pretty much everything that the government would want to spend money on, MMT & co…

Warren Mosler is one of the advisers to our company for over a year now. I had a lot of discussions with him about these kinds of things and I originally reached out to him because we are building a crypto currency platform to allow any community, from a casino or festival, to a city or even a country, to issue its own currency. We are still looking for some Economists with other views to balance out MTA. So, I can t…

> Mosler concludes by saying that the government is not constrained in how much debt it can take on

It seems to me that’s kind of half-a-loaf MMT. Or, to borrow from The Matrix trilogy, it's the spoon-bending level.

Where the full loaf (“there is no spoon”) is: Government is not constrained to take on debt at all to finance an excess of spending the over revenue. The idea that, if the State chooses to create net new tokens in the economy (remember, the key points of MMT is that fiat money is created by the issuing government spending and destroyed by the issuing government recovering it), it must seek the permission of someone with a surplus of existing tokens willing to sacrifice them for a greater number of future tokens, after which the government's pet (but “independent”) token-issuing body will see to the issuance of additional tokens is kind of bonkers, but that seems to be how MMT would view the current relation between fiscal and monetary policy.

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