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After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

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Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#131

Post by smileysteve »

dymk wrote: post #41
Scoundreller wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the same things that confuse humans can confuse computers that are largely trained with human data.

Millions of drivers per year use roads like this in California and Washington. They’re not very confusing for a human driver who’s paying attention.

I'd like to see the data behind this statement. I highly doubt that the "roads like this" see zero accidents.

Based off of guard rail end cap lawsuits alone, it seems that humans many times get confused even when driving straight on a highway; whether they are paying attention is another question, if it's relevant at all.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#132

Post by skwb »

slg wrote: post #106
SilasX wrote: post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

No, it's still the issue. If there's a bug in the software code for a programmable pacemaker, it doesn't matter if the fundamental design is flawed. For governmental regulators, it's the actual implimentation and real world performance that matters.

Sure, a bug fix for a routine being called is maybe easier to fix, but the real world performance is still the important metric to track.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#133

Post by smileysteve »

sschueller wrote: post #4

Eventually we need the NTSB to certify updates before they are pushed out over the air. Similar to what the FAA does. These OTA updates are not ok for large machinery and endagers not only the Tesla driver but all others on the road.

> Similar to what the FAA does.

The timing of this is precarious (given the recent 737 Max allegations)

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#134

Post by jseliger »

paul7986 wrote: post #22

Scary... software developers at these robotic cars and their mistakes/bugs aren’t just going to bring down a business application(lose money) but kill their customers and innocent drivers. Progress to where it’s safer is going to be a killer and we the drivers on the road are unwilling guinea pigs to billionaires’ dreams/goals.

Right now 30,000-40,000 people die in car crashes annually: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in.... And those are just fatalities: hundreds of thousands more are injured. How do we deal with those presently?

We just accept that amateurs should be hauling around at high speeds in several thousand pounds of missile.

The most relevant question is whether Tesla AP is safer or less safe than typical amateur drivers per 1,000 vehicle miles driven. I don't know the answer to that question.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#135

Post by slg »

ketzo wrote: post #114
slg wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

That’s one of those thorny AI-human problems, though — if I crash 1 in 10 drives, it’s my fault, and therefore much easier to rationalize to be, well, not my fault. If my Tesla crashes 1 in 100 drives, it’s a faulty machine and an obvious death trap.

It is a classic trolley problem. Is it worth killing a group of innocent people if it will save a larger group of innocent people? I can certainly see why people might be pushing for caution against Tesla since we don't know the size of either of those groups.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#137

Post by slg »

tptacek wrote: post #119
Scoundreller wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety One crash/incident doesn’t mean it’s less safe than a human driver on average , even if it’s something a human driver might have avoided. We should expect different failure modes from a machine, but adopt it anyway if it avoids enough human failure modes to make up for it. Source: my thermostat thought 33C was an acceptabl…

Don't Teslas fare significantly worse than cars in similar class in terms of driver fatalities?

Are you asking about Teslas or Teslas being driven by Autopilot? Autopilot so far has a fatality rate of roughly 0.25 per 100 million miles. Just for information's sake the overall rate in the US in 2017 was 1.16 per 100 million miles. Although there are plenty of caveats that should prevent you from comparing those numbers directly. The national number is for all cars, all drivers, all conditions, etc while those driving a Tesla in Autopilot are generally considered to be in a safer cars, safer conditions, and be safer drivers than average.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#138

Post by erobbins »

I think Tesla eventually has a catastrophic accident and is sued and/or criminally prosecuted into oblivion. I feel sorry for the people who are going to have to die for this to happen.

This trope that humans are bad drivers is, in general, crap. Humans are very good drivers. The US has 7.3 deaths per billion km driven. This means if you drive 50km a day, every day, you are (essentially) guaranteed to die... after 7500 YEARS. You have less than a 1 in 10 million chance of dying on any given trip you take. That is NOT risky, and is NOT dangerous.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#139

Post by disiplus »

slg wrote: post #106
SilasX wrote: post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

i would not take those chances. if the self driving car is only slightly better then average driver in fatal accidents that's not good enough. most of accidents happen because of distractions (texting and so on) and if a self driving car is only slightly better then average driver I can get a lot better if I just don't use my smartphone while driving and don't sit behind a wheel tired.

so it's not enough to be better then average driver. It needs to be as good as "good" driver or better before I would trust it.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#140

Post by Animats »

SilasX wrote: post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

Model Y will have Full Self-Driving capability, enabling automatic driving on city streets and highways pending regulatory approval, as well as the ability to come find you anywhere in a parking lot.

We've heard that before, for the Model X.

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