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India will overtake the US economy by 2030

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Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#51

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bretpiatt wrote: post #16

In PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size analysis. https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-... In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T) today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial…

> As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars

Transactions occur in nominal dollars. “Real” is an adjustment made so nominal figures at different points in time can be compared.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#52

Post by pibi »

Tade0 wrote: post #47
asark wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-( [EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, arou…

I think this is more related to the respective climates and local tastes than anything else. For example I can't for the life of me find any good potatoes, apples or bread in Italy - or anything even remotely sour that isn't wine - apparently it's not something the locals particularly enjoy.

Really? Not apples or bread? We have valleys known only for their unique apples, like the Mela Renetta from Friuli. Don't let me started talking about the apples from Trentino. So, maybe you are talking about apples in the south of Italy. About bread: I see where you are coming from, best breads I eaten are coming from bakeries on the mountains. They just taste so good. But please, remember that bread in Italy is just a support for the main tastes, like the olive oil.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#53

Post by slavik81 »

aaaaaaaaaaab wrote: post #26
gandhium wrote: post #5

Maybe they will or maybe not. I can remember similar predictions about Japan and... let's say they didn't make it.

Why was this comment downvoted to death? Remember the huge geisha advert in the 1982 Blade Runner? People were extrapolating from decades of Japanese economic growth, and thought that Japan will leave everyone behind...

Japan grew until they roughly matched the GDP per capita of the successful western nations, then slowed down. Anything even close to same result with India or China would overtake the US economy.

To overtake the US, each Japanese worker would have had to produce twice as much value as an American worker, but each Chinese or Indian worker only needs to produce a quarter as much as an American worker.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#54

Post by vkou »

olcor wrote: post #43
JoshTko wrote: post #39

Just came back from India and I would easily bet against India overtaking the US by 2030. It took me 45 min to travel 3km during rush hour.

Ha! I had a similar experience in the valley (mountain view) during an interview. Took me 15 minutes more, and I got late for my first round. Driving in NYC is out of the question any time of day.

Fortunately, you can get around NYC reasonably quickly without driving.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#55

Post by anticodon »

olcor wrote: post #27
screye wrote: post #21

Is this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in Q…

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#56

Post by Tade0 »

pibi wrote: post #52
Tade0 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is more related to the respective climates and local tastes than anything else. For example I can't for the life of me find any good potatoes, apples or bread in Italy - or anything even remotely sour that isn't wine - apparently it's not something the locals particularly enjoy.

Really? Not apples or bread? We have valleys known only for their unique apples, like the Mela Renetta from Friuli. Don't let me started talking about the apples from Trentino. So, maybe you are talking about apples in the south of Italy. About bread: I see where you are coming from, best breads I eaten are coming from bakeries on the mountains. They just taste so good. But please, remember that bread in Italy is jus…

I've only ever been to the north and what I found is that leavened bread is not a thing there.

As for apples: they're mostly okay but nothing special comparing to the varieties found around the Baltic sea.

Case in point: you can't expect to just walk into any store and find apples suitable for apple pie. Also apple juice exists in one variety and is fairly hard to find.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#57

Post by screye »

olcor wrote: post #27
screye wrote: post #21

Is this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in Q…

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

People are going to say Bangalore, but Bangalore today is pain in the ass to stay in.

It has all the problems that India already faces (density, unsanitary conditions, rising pollution) and outdoes almost all other big cities on commutes. Easily the worst traffic in the country. It does have a great tech industry and weather though.

If I had to go back, I would go to Mumbai (Western Suburbs or South Bombay), because that's where I grew up. Also, the new metro and road projects have potential to solve transportation in India. (though completion is maybe 10 yrs away)

_______________

I personally, meant townships like Lavasa (or what it was intended to be. It became a holiday home / Indian cape cod instead). A place where the city could be designed from ground up, and some of the common problems of every Indian city would be avoided by design. They are much cleaner with better air and urban design. It legitimately feels like you are in a developed country. Some photos: https://image3.mouthshut.com/images/Restaurant/Photo/-66070_... https://magnificentmaharashtra.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/g...

IMO, Nagpur would have been well positioned to become that, had it not had such terrible weather. It has decent amenities, excellent educational institutions (IIIT, NIT, IIM, AIIMS), Good public transport (with the metro and new roads), a new SEZ, a new airport and doesn't have any other major negatives.

Gurgaon's cyber-city and Noida were other totally botched attempts at this. Terribly bloated, copied the worst aspects of American urban design and left zero opportunities for any organic growth of culture in the area.

I can see Goa with BITS's presence, the weather and cosmopolitan nature being well poised for such a development. However, unlike Nagpur I've yet to see any attempt being made to urbanize that region. Navi Mumbai and Powai had a similar opportunities to build themselves from the ground up, but both have become more natural suburbs of Mumbai rather than entities in and of themselves.

________________

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#58

Post by olcor »

anticodon wrote: post #55
olcor wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.

Exactly; quality of life isn't income (if that was the case, I wouldn't be bothering to move). It's all you say; it's also food you're used to, the people around you, family ties, the freedom to have multiple income streams without your visa blocking you, and also the lack of worry that you'll be thrown out of the country.

There is a tradeoff I am making, and weirdly India is better off in it. I will miss the good air and the incredible work environment in the States, but apart from that, Mumbai can offer everything else (not many power outages from what I know, I grew up there), and quite frankly, I like the bustle.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#59

Post by bretpiatt »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #51
bretpiatt wrote: post #16

In PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size analysis. https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-... In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T) today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial…

> As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars Transactions occur in nominal dollars. “Real” is an adjustment made so nominal figures at different points in time can be compared.

I suppose we could debate about if I'm paid in real or nominal dollars for my tech I sell to folks. Today I'm paid in nominal dollars, over my 10 years of history it's real ones.

The core point is I'm not paid in PPP dollars from India with a 17/1 PPP adjustment over the US.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(e...

https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-p...

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#60

Post by gzeus »

benj111 wrote: post #34
outlace wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower? It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one with greater revenue may still have more ec…

Agreed, if you want some idea of quality of life, GDP probably isn't the best. If you want to measure who has the most resources either to potentially trade with them, or decide if you have the resources to fight them, GDP becomes more useful.

If you look at it this way, there is no real measure to see which is a better place to live.

The only thing one can agree from this article is that some countries are expected to grow at a higher rate than others only due to a larger population. I think this only makes sense if everyone is educated and the unemployment rate is low.

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