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The Bitter Lesson

incompleteideas.net

11–20 of 54 posts

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#11
This post oversimplifies the story by putting all the emphasis on compute power. Deep Blue using brute force to solve chess obviously fits this pattern, but the others?

Let's take computer vision. Alex Krizhevsky et al destroyed the ImageNet competition with a neural network in 2012, kicking off the current AI hype cycle. Essentially everything in their model had been known about since the late 80s. But we also didn't know how to train deep networks much before this (it turned out how you initialise the neural network was important), and we also didn't have a big enough dataset to train such a deep model on until ImageNet. Since then, we have built models that perform another order of magnitude better than the 2012 model, mainly because of improvements to the architectures (a combination of ingenuity and a lot of trial and error).

So compute is necessary, but it isn't enough, I don't buy that we've 'brute forced' image recognition in the same way as chess.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#12
Very interested article. I've often railed against putting your thumb on the scale (or even worse, second-guessing) machine learning models by applying too many so-called "business rules," especially post hoc rules. If the model doesn't learn on its own what you consider to be obvious structure of the data, then either you've chosen the completely wrong model and it won't be able to learn non-obvious truths either, OR your expectations were wrong and the "obvious" structure isn't real. Ineed, the model discovering, entirely on its own, the same structure as a human analyst is often the first evidence we see that the model works! In any case it does you no good to try and force it to fit your preconceptions with post hoc adjustments. Either fix your preconceptions (if they are mistaken) or switch to a model which naturally agrees with you.

Sutton takes an even more extreme point of view, suggesting that most human feature engineering is similarly a waste of time. It's hard to argue with if you know the history: some of the best computer vision algorithms use exactly two mathematical operations, convolution (which itself only requires addition and multiplication) and the max(a,b) function. (This is true because both ReLU and MaxPool can be implemented with max(), and because a fully connected layer is a special case of a convolution.) A similar story occurred in speech recognition, with human designed features like phonemes and MFCC are giving way to end-to-end learning. Indeed, even general purpose fully connected neural networks started to work much better once the biologically-motivated sigmoid() and tanh() were replaced with the much simpler ReLU function, which is is just ReLU(x) = max(x, 0). What really made the difference was leveraging GPUs, using more data, automating hyperparameter selection, and so on.

I'm not sure if there's really a lesson there, or if this trend will hold indefinitely, and I'm not sure why the lesson would be "bitter" even if it holds. Certainly opinions are mixed. One the one hand, many researchers such as Andrew Ng are big proponents of end-to-end learning; on the other hand, no one can currently conceive of training a self-driving car that way. But avoiding domain-specific, human-engineered features may be a viable guiding philosophy for making big, across-the-board advances in machine learning.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#13

On the other hand at some point we will want AI to learn based on a small number of interactions. IE an AI that beats a human after playing 10 games of chess/starcraft etc. Right now it takes millions of training matches. Many real world situations don't happen that often so this fundamentally limits applications of the current generation of AI.

Humans require few or many examples depending on the situation. For example my toddler got some candy from the hospital gift shop six months ago. Walking past the same place today he took off on his own accord and went directly to the candy. A single example was enough to train his candy finding algorithm. On the other hand he has had hundreds of examples of putting on his shoes and still can not manage this on his own.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#14
You can only reliably say that something which has happened several times is something that will always happen if you know the reason why it happened several times. This article seems to think it's Moore's law, which has ended. I think history tends to go in cycles as people over-index on whatever worked well for the last n decades.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#15
I know ~nothing about AI. But to me, this seems a great summary. And as a one-time developmental biologist, I'm struck by these observations:

> One thing that should be learned from the bitter lesson is the great power of general purpose methods, of methods that continue to scale with increased computation even as the available computation becomes very great. The two methods that seem to scale arbitrarily in this way are search and learning.

> The second general point to be learned from the bitter lesson is that the actual contents of minds are tremendously, irredeemably complex; we should stop trying to find simple ways to think about the contents of minds, such as simple ways to think about space, objects, multiple agents, or symmetries.

From what I know about brain development, "search and learning" are key mechanisms. Plus massive overproduction and selection, which is basically learning. Maybe that's the main takeaway from biology.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#16
post #8

It's not just AI. Our trade's history is chockfull of valiant efforts to solve problems that were overrun by the exponential decline of computing costs by the time they really worked properly. Remember DSEE / ClearCase? They had all sorts of complicated virtual file systems to deliver tagged and branched contents of source code repositories. But drive space expanded with a Moore's-law style curve and now we have "git…

Ironically everything old is new again; now we have https://vfsforgit.org/ because keeping everything on one disk is too big, and OpenGL ES gets rid of immediate mode because communications with the host CPU is too slow.

OpenGL's immediate mode has been discouraged for a very long time, though.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#17

You can only reliably say that something which has happened several times is something that will always happen if you know the reason why it happened several times. This article seems to think it's Moore's law, which has ended. I think history tends to go in cycles as people over-index on whatever worked well for the last n decades.

This seems to be a trait of humanity in general, not just IT. Look at the finance industry: banks loan based on historical track records, right up until the bubble pops. Every. Single. Time.

Momentum lends itself to easy statistical support, and paradigm shifts are notoriously difficult to predict with any degree of confidence.

No matter how long in the tooth a particular trend might be, matter how certain you are that a reversal is imminent, it's hard to push against the weight of trend-line evidence.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#19
I'm suspicious of hindsight bias.

I'm not sure if that had written 10-20 years ago, that "learning" would figure out so predominantly. Who's to say there isn't a third such big method?

Also, while the lesson fit the facts (easy in hindsight), it will hold... until it doesn't anymore. The end of Moore's law has been long heralded, and we're starting to enter this era. Progress can be made, probably, but transistors can't get any tinier, and you can only put so much cores on one chip. Hardware may continue to provide "free gains" but those will likely be at an order of magnitude (or more?) smaller than before.

Re: The Bitter Lesson

#20
post #5

The majority of businesses and governments are insisting on learning this bitter lesson anew. In the minds of many business executives and government officials, "explainable AI" means, quite literally, "show it to me as a linear combination of a small number of features" (sometimes called "drivers" or "factors") that have monotonic relationships with measurable outcomes. I would go further: most people are understand…

If explainable AI is too limiting, what's the alternative? What's going to happen when someone gets hauled into court to be held liable for their non-explainable AI's outcomes? Oh right, I know, they'll hide behind corporate limited-liability shenanigans, until people get tired of that and go straight for the guillotines. Or maybe the non-explainable AI's owners will decide they want to prevent that, and ... do you want Skynet? Because that's how you get Skynet. Maybe spend some time thinking about the various awful ways this could play out before concluding that explainability isn't important.
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