Once tax day has come and the full force of the capped SALT deduction is felt, things may change. A high-earning couple with $500k in combined income (roughly $45k in state taxes) and a $2m home (roughly $20k in local taxes) will go from a $65k deduction to a $10k deduction.
Am half of a high earning couple in a bit above this range in California. Surprisingly, my taxes changed very little this year. In years prior, I always had to pay AMT, in which SALT deductions were already disallowed. The new tax law is basically a wash. I don't pay AMT, just pay higher regular. I didn't check exactly but my effective rate this year may even have gone down a little. Many people in this income range…
I realize that the lower rates help out high earners and can mitigate the effect of the SALT cap. But all high earners across the country get the benefit of low rates, whereas only the ones in high tax states get hit with the cap. So when weighing the choice between being a relatively high earners in a low tax state or a super high earners in a high tax state, the balance shifts toward the low tax state.