China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft • Hacker News Board

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#31

Post by roenxi » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:08 AM UTC

dschuler wrote: post #15

People seem to think this is a political move by the China, which may be true, but this is actually what they're supposed to do. According to the article, 96 737 MAX jets are operated by Chinese airlines, and the aircraft appears to be racking up a questionable safety record. I wouldn't put faith in the FAA to be beyond political influence and crack down on an American manufacturer quickly. Lauda Air flight 004 [0] c…

Firstly I want to make it clear I agree that without strong evidence otherwise this decision should be assumed to be a technical/bureaucratic one.

However, citing single a 1991 crash as evidence of something 30 years later is a bit extreme - that isn't even in the same century any more. If it was geopolitics or community attitudes, sure. But extrapolating present attitudes from a technical decisions about a thrust reverser is too far.

I couldn't find a milder way to say that while capturing the point. I'm more amused at attitudes to airline safety than anything else.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#32

Post by jfoster » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:11 AM UTC

A suspension can always be lifted. If something appears like it may be beyond a coincidence, it doesn't seem like a bad move to suspend until more is known.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#33

Post by drstewart » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:11 AM UTC

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #16

I'm disappointed that the FAA hasn't done this. The FAA seems to be adopting Gollum's "I'm not listening" stance. There is historical precedent for the FAA suspending a type certificate. This happened after a DC-10 crash in 1979.[1] The facts are that the Indonesia crash just 5 months ago killed 189 people; this latest Ethiopia crash just killed 157 people. That's way too many dead people for a plane that has only be…

Do you think the Airbus 330 should be grounded?

It has 11 hull losses with 1447 built. That's a rate of 2.67 per 350 built by the way -- higher than the MAX

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#34

Post by cjbprime » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:11 AM UTC

em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #23

speedplane wrote: post #20

Forget China, think about yourself. If you have an option to fly on a 737 Max or another aircraft right now, which would you choose? I suspect market forces will ground these planes anyway.

I'd guesstimate flying on a 737 Max is still safer than driving a car.

The actual option is going to be flying on a Max vs. choosing a different airline or flight number that uses a different model of plane.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#35

Post by fulafel » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:17 AM UTC

speedplane wrote: post #20

Forget China, think about yourself. If you have an option to fly on a 737 Max or another aircraft right now, which would you choose? I suspect market forces will ground these planes anyway.

Frequent air travelers are becoming self-selected for less planning/foresight than the average person wrt global warming concerns, I wonder if this changes the accident risk aversion of the average flyer.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#36

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:18 AM UTC

s17n wrote: post #30

est wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If any other country ground 737s it's better for safety concerns. But if it's China, it must be political motivated.

China is a one party state which explicitly doesn't permit any organization, much less a government agency, to operate without political interference.

[deleted]

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#37

Post by inferiorhuman » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:18 AM UTC

drstewart wrote: post #33

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #16

I'm disappointed that the FAA hasn't done this. The FAA seems to be adopting Gollum's "I'm not listening" stance. There is historical precedent for the FAA suspending a type certificate. This happened after a DC-10 crash in 1979.[1] The facts are that the Indonesia crash just 5 months ago killed 189 people; this latest Ethiopia crash just killed 157 people. That's way too many dead people for a plane that has only be…

Do you think the Airbus 330 should be grounded? It has 11 hull losses with 1447 built. That's a rate of 2.67 per 350 built by the way -- higher than the MAX

That's a rate of 2.67 per 350 built by the way -- higher than the MAX

How many of those hull loses resulted in fatalities? How many of the hull loses were due to pilot error (e.g. AF 447)? How many flights have those A330s flown? So far Boeing's lost two MAX8s that were quite new with many signs pointing to a design flaw rather than pilot error. That's a worse record than the A330.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#38

Post by bouncycastle » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:20 AM UTC

speedplane wrote: post #20

Forget China, think about yourself. If you have an option to fly on a 737 Max or another aircraft right now, which would you choose? I suspect market forces will ground these planes anyway.

Any aircraft can be stalled fairly easily. I think the problem may be between the yoke and the chair (PBYAC).

Especially when it's a new aircraft, perhaps pilots need time to adjust, same as when you and I get in to a new car, it may have different response when you hit the gas, different mirrors, different sounds, different steering wheel sensitivity, etc.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#39

Post by cjbprime » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:22 AM UTC

drstewart wrote: post #33

PhantomGremlin wrote: post #16

I'm disappointed that the FAA hasn't done this. The FAA seems to be adopting Gollum's "I'm not listening" stance. There is historical precedent for the FAA suspending a type certificate. This happened after a DC-10 crash in 1979.[1] The facts are that the Indonesia crash just 5 months ago killed 189 people; this latest Ethiopia crash just killed 157 people. That's way too many dead people for a plane that has only be…

Do you think the Airbus 330 should be grounded? It has 11 hull losses with 1447 built. That's a rate of 2.67 per 350 built by the way -- higher than the MAX

Oh, come on, this is a terrible argument.

Those A330 hull losses are over more than 25 years. The Max went into production in 2017. The correct metric to use here is hull losses per hour of flight. I can see some total number of flights data, but not total hours. The Max has probably made fewer than 100k flights total, the A330 has made at least 7 million flights.

Therefore, multiply the two Max hull losses by 70 to get your first ballpark guess at a comparable number. It is as if the Max was an A330 with 140 hull losses instead of 11.

Re: China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft

#40

Post by Aloha » Mon, Mar 11, 2019, 5:25 AM UTC

speedplane wrote: post #20

Forget China, think about yourself. If you have an option to fly on a 737 Max or another aircraft right now, which would you choose? I suspect market forces will ground these planes anyway.

Depends on what the other aircraft is.