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China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

bloomberg.com

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Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#21

Post by JumpCrisscross »

resters wrote: post #16

Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to provide detailed financials to congress for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse. It's not a matter of "oh wow, a major government fudges numbers", it's "how many major ways in which my government fudges numbers might I not be aware of?"

> Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to submit financials to markets for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse

Source?

I’m searching and can’t find one. I also remember reading Fannie & Freddie prospectuses from that time. Each contained extensive financial disclosures.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#22

Post by M4ester »

resters wrote: post #16

Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to provide detailed financials to congress for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse. It's not a matter of "oh wow, a major government fudges numbers", it's "how many major ways in which my government fudges numbers might I not be aware of?"

^

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#23

Post by coliveira »

All countries inflate GDP, because there is always a gap of uncertainty about existing economic activity and governments like larger numbers. And since Chinese growth is higher than in other parts of the world, it is normal that the gap be larger, in the range of 1%.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#24

Post by mc32 »

ggm wrote: post #14

The article states that the provinces have a material reason to inflate. The provincial governments are far stronger than people routinely seem to understand, we're obsessed by the strong statist arguments of 'scary China' and don't think about their internal structure and where strength and weakness lies. I believe Chinese central planners don't like misleading numbers, it makes the five year plan much harder to des…

I would decouple the economic and political realities of “the mountains are tall and the emperor far away” from national military might.

Vietnam, Russia, Tibet and other neighbors can attest that that one is not like the other.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#25

Post by kasey_junk »

resters wrote: post #16

Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to provide detailed financials to congress for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse. It's not a matter of "oh wow, a major government fudges numbers", it's "how many major ways in which my government fudges numbers might I not be aware of?"

> Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to submit financials to markets for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse

Source? I worked in that industry at that time & there was lots of odd things going on, there was never a whiff of non-reporting on their part that I remember.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#26

Post by NTDF9 »

rohan1024 wrote: post #3

Indian. I am not sure if our GDP numbers are correct either.

Indian numbers could be fudged, but is out in the bare for financial firms, banks and bond holders to examine.

And yes, India's GDP is probably higher because of the gigantic informal economy. People are richer than their tax documents make them seem.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#28

Post by steve19 »

coliveira wrote: post #23

All countries inflate GDP, because there is always a gap of uncertainty about existing economic activity and governments like larger numbers. And since Chinese growth is higher than in other parts of the world, it is normal that the gap be larger, in the range of 1%.

I don't think this is true. Certainly in many countries GDP calculations are transparent. The economists calculating them are bureaucrats who serve the government, not whichever party is currently in power.

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#29

Post by resters »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21
resters wrote: post #16

Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to provide detailed financials to congress for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse. It's not a matter of "oh wow, a major government fudges numbers", it's "how many major ways in which my government fudges numbers might I not be aware of?"

> Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to submit financials to markets for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse Source? I’m searching and can’t find one. I also remember reading Fannie & Freddie prospectuses from that time. Each contained extensive financial disclosures.

Information was omitted:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/03/business/dealbook/why-no-...

Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds

#30

Post by learc83 »

Can we do something about every article remotely ctitical of China being flagged.

I'm assuming that's what happened since this article very quickly moved from 1st place to below other articles that are older and have far fewer comments and upvotes.

Edit: currently #21 despite more upvotes and comments and being newer than the top 3 articles.

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