Indian. I am not sure if our GDP numbers are correct either.
If anything, for India it is the other way around due to the massive informal economy and tax avoidance.
China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
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Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#12Indian. I am not sure if our GDP numbers are correct either.
Apart from the opposition parties, I could not find a single reputed source that says India's GDP numbers are fudged.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#131-2% overstatement of GDP, if that's big news, that will depreciate the Chinese currency and boost the exports more.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#14The article states that the provinces have a material reason to inflate. The provincial governments are far stronger than people routinely seem to understand, we're obsessed by the strong statist arguments of 'scary China' and don't think about their internal structure and where strength and weakness lies.
I believe Chinese central planners don't like misleading numbers, it makes the five year plan much harder to design. The Chinese technocrats wouldn't like this situation any more than western investment does.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#15GDP is a number. I have relatives in China, and I visit China every year. I would say the average people in China live a better life than average Americans do here, and it's still constantly improving. Then, why don't I go back to China? My kids are getting education here, and they can not catch up back in China.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#16Consider that Fannie and Freddie were allowed not to provide detailed financials to congress for several years in a row preceding the 2008 housing collapse.
It's not a matter of "oh wow, a major government fudges numbers", it's "how many major ways in which my government fudges numbers might I not be aware of?"
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#17The winds of exaggeration blow still. [1]
[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/03/10/beijings-gdp-numerology...
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#18One easy way to measure GDP is count their new large truck sales. That number is hard to game.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#19Economists (e.g. Michael Pettis) were already calling China out for its long history inflated numbers when the 2007-2009 crisis erupted. Perhaps this view might go mainstream with the looming recession?
> Perhaps this view might go mainstream with the looming recession?
Nobody, including Beijing, took China’s official statistics at face value. What’s novel in this work is the larger-than-expected magnitude of the error.
Re: China's GDP Growth Pace Was Inflated for Nine Years, Study Finds
#20Economists (e.g. Michael Pettis) were already calling China out for its long history inflated numbers when the 2007-2009 crisis erupted. Perhaps this view might go mainstream with the looming recession?
Economists have also predicted 5 Chinese recessions, and 4 American ones in the past decade.
That the bubble will pop isn't very interesting. When, is.