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Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

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Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#71

Post by CPLX »

leesec wrote: post #70
CPLX wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. Telling people that the actual physical car they are currently purchasing from his company will soon be capable of autonomous driving when, in fact, it isn't, and won't ever be, seems to be a pretty straightforward contradiction of that statement.

Why do you think it won't ever be? Also that's literally just your opinion that it won't soon be capable. It's definitely Musk's opinion that it will soon be capable. Mine too.

I'm talking about an actual car that was sold like a two years ago to someone. I mean it's possible that Tesla someday will be able to create some kind of autonomous car and sell it to someone.

But they've been claiming that the cars people already have will, in the future, be able to be autonomous.

Those statements are most accurately described as lying.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#72

Post by lazyasciiart »

fastball wrote: post #54
xeromal wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone has a delusional idea, is it still a lie? I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. I think he is delusional for how long certain things take to do and at worst is trying to keep his companies afloat so he can continue with his ideas. I'd say his sins are less than the CEO of Enron for instance. It's hard to blame the guy when he successfully built a rocket company.

You could almost call him the successful / less pathological Elizabeth Holmes. He promises the future before it has arrived, but unlike Theranos, he actually delivers a product. That product might be inferior to what was promised, but it is an improvement on the status quo nonetheless. And once released, Musk does not lie about its capabilities.

> > "We already have full self-driving capability on highways," Musk said during a January earnings call.

That statement certainly isn't true for any meaningful value of 'self-driving'.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#73

Post by bryondowd »

0815test wrote: post #36
_ea1k wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot in planes can be used, and often is used, in cases of VFR flight in which see-and-avoid is a requirement. Constant surveillance of the aircraft's surroundings is important. When it isn't done, midairs happen.

That's a special case, however. See-and-avoid except in specialized scenarios is what the Level-3 designation of driving-assistance systems is about, something that Tesla has not achieved so far.

Not that special of a case. There's around 10-11 million VFR flights per year, versus around 15-16 million IFR flights, according to this FAA doc[0]

How many of those VFR flights have/use autopilot during their flight, I can't say, but basic autopilot systems for GA planes have gotten pretty affordable, so I would expect there's at least hundreds of flights any given day where a VFR pilot engages an autopilot during the flight.

The main difference is that none of those VFR flights are big airliners with hundreds of passengers. For those who don't know the difference, an oversimplification would be VFR = pilot is 99% in charge, with very little assistance from air traffic controllers outside of special controlled airspace, IFR = controllers are giving the pilot very detailed instructions for the entire flight. And it's pretty much one or the other.

[0] PDF: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/by_the_numbers/media/Air_Tra...

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#74

Post by leesec »

CPLX wrote: post #71
leesec wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think it won't ever be? Also that's literally just your opinion that it won't soon be capable. It's definitely Musk's opinion that it will soon be capable. Mine too.

I'm talking about an actual car that was sold like a two years ago to someone. I mean it's possible that Tesla someday will be able to create some kind of autonomous car and sell it to someone. But they've been claiming that the cars people already have will, in the future, be able to be autonomous. Those statements are most accurately described as lying.

Tesla's plan is to replace the Nvidia chip in the car with it's own much more powerful chip. This is going to allow them to achieve autonomy. Those cars sold 2 years ago will be autonomous. That's the plan anyways.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#75

Post by SheinhardtWigCo »

fastball wrote: post #54
xeromal wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone has a delusional idea, is it still a lie? I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. I think he is delusional for how long certain things take to do and at worst is trying to keep his companies afloat so he can continue with his ideas. I'd say his sins are less than the CEO of Enron for instance. It's hard to blame the guy when he successfully built a rocket company.

You could almost call him the successful / less pathological Elizabeth Holmes. He promises the future before it has arrived, but unlike Theranos, he actually delivers a product. That product might be inferior to what was promised, but it is an improvement on the status quo nonetheless. And once released, Musk does not lie about its capabilities.

This is on the order page for the Model 3 right now:

> Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

Except that feature hasn’t shipped and there’s no ETA. I call that a lie. I appreciate what Tesla is doing to the industry but I wish they wouldn’t be so dishonest in their marketing.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#76

Post by leesec »

Someone1234 wrote: post #38
martythemaniak wrote: post #30

There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech. 1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people working on it and they are using different strategies, but it is not clear how long it will take, which strategy is technically superior, which strategy is more economical, etc etc. There's a lot of very strong opinions floating around (LIDAR is essential! No, vi…

> They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. Can you explore that a little? We have consumer products that contain LIDAR already (e.g. Neato Vacuums). The sensors no longer cost thousands of dollars, and could supplement other types of inputs to provide a broader picture of the road.

The LIDAR used for FSD will not be like the LIDAR in your vacuum. At the moment the LIDARS that car's would need are still several thousand if not tens of thousands.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#77

Post by FireBeyond »

wil421 wrote: post #67
Animats wrote: post #49

Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? Where’s Waymos product? Will they sell to consumers or the incumbent car makers? I agree with your statement about Tesla’s marketing of self driving. My Grand Cherokee isn’t so far off their mark. It has lane assist, adaptive cruise control with stop, parallel and back in parking. I’d bet Jeep could do summon and more stuff on the highway.

> At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy?

What self driving product do they have? Elon's "Oh yeah, we will have full self driving coast to coast in [8 months]" is horseshit to the point of "How is he allowed to say this on an earnings call?"

Other competitors, widely recognized to be ahead of Tesla estimate 5, more likely 10 YEARS. Coast to coast? Your Tesla will navigate a Pittsburgh winter storm on poor roads in Level 5 autonomy... this year? No.

So then we're with "sophisticated driver assist". Actual products you can buy with sophisticated driver assist are sold by: Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Chrysler...

My Jaguar has: adaptive cruise, four way sensors, lane assist, including ability to prevent you from changing lanes if a blind spot obstruction is noted, adaptive front lighting and high beam assist, driver condition monitoring (detects multiple 'drift', lane departure events or sub-optimal braking), traffic sign recognition and adaptive speed limiting, rear traffic monitoring including the ability to avoid, if possible, full auto parking, and so on.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#78

Post by close04 »

Someone1234 wrote: post #38
martythemaniak wrote: post #30

There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech. 1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people working on it and they are using different strategies, but it is not clear how long it will take, which strategy is technically superior, which strategy is more economical, etc etc. There's a lot of very strong opinions floating around (LIDAR is essential! No, vi…

> They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. Can you explore that a little? We have consumer products that contain LIDAR already (e.g. Neato Vacuums). The sensors no longer cost thousands of dollars, and could supplement other types of inputs to provide a broader picture of the road.

All tech comes in different grades and specs. The LIDAR used on a vacuum cleaner might use the same basic principle but doesn't come close to the requirements of the auto industry and self driving tech.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#79

Post by FireBeyond »

martythemaniak wrote: post #30

There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech. 1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people working on it and they are using different strategies, but it is not clear how long it will take, which strategy is technically superior, which strategy is more economical, etc etc. There's a lot of very strong opinions floating around (LIDAR is essential! No, vi…

> Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not.

Except according to Elon Musk (whom I don't believe) - it had better, since he's promising that it will be available this year.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#80

Post by FireBeyond »

Gladdyu wrote: post #51
Someone1234 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. Can you explore that a little? We have consumer products that contain LIDAR already (e.g. Neato Vacuums). The sensors no longer cost thousands of dollars, and could supplement other types of inputs to provide a broader picture of the road.

Yes, but you can't install a LIDAR over a software update. They've been promising full self-driving mode and getting closer by updating the software - the owners that already have the current car won't be to thrilled if they get cut-off from the state-of-the-art in Tesla's self-driving tech.

... particularly since they were charged up to three or five thousand dollars more for Elon's "promise" that some day (apparently this year) it will be available...
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