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Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

arstechnica.com

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Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#61

Post by ProblemFactory »

cbames89 wrote: post #5

This is a (perhaps short-term) failure of first principles reasoning. Elon's known to favor thinking about things from first principles, and there's no theoretical reason that vision can't work. However, technical limitations might take a while to overcome.

We figured out the first principles of fusion power in 1930s, but are still nowhere close to practical fusion power generation. The engineering difficulties are just too great, and simpler alternatives exist which get much more attention, funding and optimisation.

Similar might happen to vision-only self-driving. It might take a decade or two longer to develop compared to LIDAR-based approaches, and meanwhile LIDAR is only going to get cheaper.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#62

Post by jimktrains2 »

munificent wrote: post #25
ForHackernews wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision alone fails pretty frequently even with a human brain and 700 million years of evolution behind it. Count me as a skeptic that cameras + computer will produce a safe self-driving system.

> 700 million years of evolution behind it Sure, but only about 0.000014% of that time occurred while cars existed. It's not like we evolved to control big metal objects hurtling down artificially made flat surfaces.

And even then, accidents where all parties are following the rules, e.g. being sober, undistracted by something in the car, giving enough stopping distance to the vehicle you're following, going the appropriate speed for the visual and road conditions, &c aren't the norm. Most accidents happen because somebody was irresponsible, usually blatantly.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#63

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

> "We already have full self-driving capability on highways," Musk said during a January earnings call.

Except for obstacles that coincide with whitelisted locations their sensors can't handle. It's only a matter of time before someone dies because of that hack.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#64

Post by devy »

The top editor promoted comment[1] on the article summed up very well.

  The attention problem is well known in engineering. 
  It is very hard to get a human to concentrate on something 
  that will turn up good more than 99% of the time, 
  even when there's serious or fatal consequences of failure. 
  Trains are the classic example - tracks are amost always clear, 
  signals are almost always correct which means you have to
  devise all sorts of systems to keep the driver alert.
[1]: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/teslas-self-driving-str...

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#65

Post by haberman »

I got a Tesla last year. I love it. But it's been painfully obvious to me that Autopilot is nowhere close to something that will let you take a nap.

Often when I'm stopped at a light, cars that are standing completely still will appear to be constantly moving forwards and backwards on the display. My best theory so far is that the Tesla's spatial model is getting thrown off by the other car's turn signal. This does not inspire confidence.

In general, I find the radar-enhanced cruise control very reliable (so nice in bad traffic), but autosteer is flaky at best.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#66

Post by scottie_m »

boznz wrote: post #60
RivieraKid wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People should strive for correct reasoning. First principles reasoning, as I interpret that term, is just an approach that helps to achieve correctness by overcoming ingrained assumptions. If Elon really thought "in theory, camera-only full self driving is possible, therefore I should invest resources in that approach" than he's dumber than I thought. He's done it because Lidar was not an option - and the claim that…

The simple fact that Humans only have eyes and don't need lidar or radar to drive, however we cause accidents when our eyes misinterpret a situation, there are bad road markings or our vision is impaired due to bad conditions a camera only car will have the same faults. So Personally I would feel safe in a camera only car driving during the day in good conditions and with good road markings or on a controlled road wh…

Humans are general intelligences requiring almost two decades of specialized training and growth before we even think about letting them drive. The human eye is also vastly superior to any camera in existence, so even being generous there is. O comparison. Maybe such a comparison will be valid decades from now, or longer, but Tesla is selling people a lie today and it’s a potentially dangerous lie at that.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#67

Post by wil421 »

Animats wrote: post #49

Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…

At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? Where’s Waymos product? Will they sell to consumers or the incumbent car makers?

I agree with your statement about Tesla’s marketing of self driving. My Grand Cherokee isn’t so far off their mark. It has lane assist, adaptive cruise control with stop, parallel and back in parking. I’d bet Jeep could do summon and more stuff on the highway.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#68

Post by jniedrauer »

peeters wrote: post #32

I've always found that half the issue is with the name: Autopilot. On an airplane, autopilot means you can take your focus off of both the physical and mental act of moving the plane through the air, and if it needs you to intercede there is pretty much no emergency in which you wouldn't have a few seconds to react. In a car, Tesla's Autopilot simply doesn't give you that. If you are reading and your autopilot exits,…

I don't think this accurately considers how the term "autopilot" is actually used in aviation. Autopilot can mean anything from "hold a gyro estimated heading but not pitch or speed" to "maintain airspeed and follow the localizer down a glide slope while cross checking GPS and ILS."

> if it needs you to intercede there is pretty much no emergency in which you wouldn't have a few seconds to react.

Traffic avoidance is certainly one. Airspeed dropping while the autopilot tries to maintain altitude is another. This can result in a stall and complete loss of control under the wrong circumstances.

Autopilot does not mean "read a book and let the plane fly itself." You are always cross checking instruments, visually scanning for traffic, running checklists, rehearsing your next steps, etc.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#69

Post by CPLX »

xeromal wrote: post #53
CPLX wrote: post #29

It's funny how much people have danced around all this, including this article, but what Musk has done with his statements on self-driving capabilities is called lying .

If someone has a delusional idea, is it still a lie? I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. I think he is delusional for how long certain things take to do and at worst is trying to keep his companies afloat so he can continue with his ideas. I'd say his sins are less than the CEO of Enron for instance. It's hard to blame the guy when he successfully built a rocket company.

> I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money.

Telling people that the actual physical car they are currently purchasing from his company will soon be capable of autonomous driving when, in fact, it isn't, and won't ever be, seems to be a pretty straightforward contradiction of that statement.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#70

Post by leesec »

CPLX wrote: post #69
xeromal wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone has a delusional idea, is it still a lie? I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. I think he is delusional for how long certain things take to do and at worst is trying to keep his companies afloat so he can continue with his ideas. I'd say his sins are less than the CEO of Enron for instance. It's hard to blame the guy when he successfully built a rocket company.

> I don't think Musk 'lies' to earn more money. Telling people that the actual physical car they are currently purchasing from his company will soon be capable of autonomous driving when, in fact, it isn't, and won't ever be, seems to be a pretty straightforward contradiction of that statement.

Why do you think it won't ever be?

Also that's literally just your opinion that it won't soon be capable. It's definitely Musk's opinion that it will soon be capable. Mine too.

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