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Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

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Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#31

Post by j_baker »

enjo wrote: post #26
chailatte wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American companies (which are mostly multinationals now) are rich (but also have a huge debt load). The typical Americans are poor and suffer from lack of jobs/credit and growing inflation (which is why Republicans were voted into office this month).

Is the typical American truly 'poor'? Unemployment is higher than typical, but hardly at unprecedented levels worldwide. Among the educated class, unemployment (4.6%) isn't even particularly high. At the same time debt-loads among American companies are not particularly out of whack from previous economic cycles. Hell a lot of companies (Apple, Microsoft, and Google just to name three off of the top of my head) are a…

The treasury activity is intended to spark inflation. Some amount of inflation is good for the economy.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#32

Post by arethuza »

davidmathers wrote: post #5

It's refreshing to see some left-wing economic nonsense on HN instead of the right-wing economic nonsense that usually makes the front page (where's the hyper-inflation you promised me? oh, you meant next year. of course. of course.) Anyway, arguments aside (I'm not convinced he truly understands comparative advantage), isn't the relative decline of America something we want? I can't be the only one who wants to live…

Out of interest, why do you interpret it as "left-wing" - is anything that is critical of the current state of the US economy automatically "left-wing"?

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#33

Post by dmitri1981 »

> The MegaJobs are more like lottery tickets, than prizes in a meritocracy (think landing a spot at a top law firm, or investment bank--it's more about who you know and where you studied, than what you can do).

I could not disagree more. All people I know with what the author calls MegaJobs have them because they considerably smarter and are prepared to work harder than most. These are the guys that worked 16 hours a day at university and are now doing the same the at their jobs. To suggest that it was due to connections is frankly naive. Connections can definitely help you get in, but they are never a substitute for above qualities.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#34

Post by davidmathers »

arethuza wrote: post #32
davidmathers wrote: post #5

It's refreshing to see some left-wing economic nonsense on HN instead of the right-wing economic nonsense that usually makes the front page (where's the hyper-inflation you promised me? oh, you meant next year. of course. of course.) Anyway, arguments aside (I'm not convinced he truly understands comparative advantage), isn't the relative decline of America something we want? I can't be the only one who wants to live…

Out of interest, why do you interpret it as "left-wing" - is anything that is critical of the current state of the US economy automatically "left-wing"?

As a rule of thumb I'd say that pretty much any essay that contains the word "structure" is written by a leftist, no matter what the subject. Macroeconomics as a concept is basically leftist, as is focus on/awareness of society, social issues, systems based thinking, promotion of rationality or rational order, and suspicion of trade and natural order.

Most of the right-wing crank economics that gets written (and sadly shows up on the HN front page) consists of direct attacks on macro policy and/or fiat currency (i.e. social money, not "hard" money). Rule of thumb: if you're reading a sky-is-falling essay and it contains the words "fed", "federal reserve", "gold", or "inflation" the author is a right-wing nutjob. Macro/social thinking and policy is either dangerous or immoral. Or useless and ineffective. Because, you know, "there's no such thing as society."

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#35

Post by arethuza »

davidmathers wrote: post #34
arethuza wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of interest, why do you interpret it as "left-wing" - is anything that is critical of the current state of the US economy automatically "left-wing"?

As a rule of thumb I'd say that pretty much any essay that contains the word "structure" is written by a leftist, no matter what the subject. Macroeconomics as a concept is basically leftist, as is focus on/awareness of society, social issues, systems based thinking, promotion of rationality or rational order, and suspicion of trade and natural order. Most of the right-wing crank economics that gets written (and sadl…

"there's no such thing as society."

I'd forgotten that Thatcher quote. However, when you see it in context it really doesn't look that bad:

http://briandeer.com/social/thatcher-society.htm

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#36

Post by achompas »

This is all topical economics. Example:

The result is a heavy dose of heavily concentrated industries--and while that's good for beancounters, it's terrible for innovation, basic quality standards, customer service, and, of course, investors.

Wait. So large companies like Apple, GE, GM, Google, and Boeing aren't developing new and exciting technology? Also, if something is good for "beancounters" (like, say, an increase in the company's book value or cash flow), well, isn't that good for investors too?

More: he reads the NY Times, sees that Chinese IPOs > US IPOs, and concludes America is broken? China's GDP is growing 3-4 times as fast as ours, so 3-4 times as many IPOs seems about right. He also misunderstands how savings flow through our economy. We don't need to "shift savings into investments." The moment banks receive consumer savings, they're lent out to small businesses so they can purchase equipment. That's investment.

He also trots out the "oh woe is our net trade situation" without mentioning that any trade rebalancing will decrease China's GDP by billions. So there's that.

He's complicating our economic problems. The bottom line: we were overleveraged as a country. Now our economy is (drastically) adjusting. We'll be fine.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#37

Post by enjo »

j_baker wrote: post #31
enjo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the typical American truly 'poor'? Unemployment is higher than typical, but hardly at unprecedented levels worldwide. Among the educated class, unemployment (4.6%) isn't even particularly high. At the same time debt-loads among American companies are not particularly out of whack from previous economic cycles. Hell a lot of companies (Apple, Microsoft, and Google just to name three off of the top of my head) are a…

The treasury activity is intended to spark inflation. Some amount of inflation is good for the economy.

I should have specified: excessive inflation.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#39

Post by Nick_C »

Bertrood wrote: post #12
kiba wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US economy tanks, everybody else tanks.

Regarless of what happens in the shortterm, the US will be the dominant power in the 21st century.

Wow, that's a big call this early in the century.

Think back to 1910 and the relative positions of the UK and the US versus their positions by 1990.

Personally, I think China will have exerted its real economic influence well and truly by the third quarter of this century. Couple that with India, and I expect there won't be such a thing as "the dominant" power. There will several economic powers, with the US being one of them.

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