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Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

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Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#11

Yes, just like England lost the power to America, and Spain lost the power to England, so will US lose the power to China. Precisely because of the reasons author listed.

My vision is that no country will have a visible power in the future as it was in the past. I think the world is changing, but it seems to be walking to the equality direction, looking from a high level perspective.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#12
post #10
post #9

It didn't take too long before it was time to stop reading this article. After two paragraphs of this kind of stuff its easy to fill in the blanks. America will do fine in the future. It is easy to lose site of this when looking at things on the surface such as imports vs. exports in the US and emerging markets vs the stale US economy. America has the best univerities in the world, and the largest amount of highly ed…

If the US economy tanks, everybody else tanks.

Regarless of what happens in the shortterm, the US will be the dominant power in the 21st century.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#13
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's a given. China is big , but that doesnt necessarily equate to power. Besides that, who says America's decline has to come right now? It's easy to be all doom and gloom in economic times like these, but the grass isn't greener on the other side. Other countries are in this as deep if not deeper than we are.

An aging US population, massive growing debt, shrinking dollar and shrinking manufacturing says America's decline is now.

China's population is aging much faster than ours due to their one child policy. Our debt isn't really a whole lot worse than it was after World War II, and that preceded pretty good growth for us. Lastly, the effect of the value of the dollar going down and manufacturing jobs going elsewhere is of debatable importance.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#14
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's a given. China is big , but that doesnt necessarily equate to power. Besides that, who says America's decline has to come right now? It's easy to be all doom and gloom in economic times like these, but the grass isn't greener on the other side. Other countries are in this as deep if not deeper than we are.

An aging US population, massive growing debt, shrinking dollar and shrinking manufacturing says America's decline is now.

Shrinking manufacturing? Perhaps due to the recession, but otherwise not so much. Peak output for US manufacturing was in 2006, current American manufacturing output is about 40% above what it was in the mid-90s. Just because there are fewer jobs due to automation doesn't mean manufacturing in America is in decline.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#15
post #4

I'm living in an era where the US dominance is at its highest. May be I'm alone. Let's look around. My computer, my phone, websites and services I use, the cars (we used to buy French ones, now as Ford and other alternatives are available, we and the whole Tunisian population are somehow diversifying).... Everything you can think of, from food to Energy or wars, if you make a deeper look and analysis, you'll notice a…

>> I really wonder how is this America big decline? They have better education, stronger army, more resources and lot of smart people.

Your argument along with your evidence is the state of things as they are today; decline is the trend (the derivative if you may). Just because we're at our peak, doesn't mean we're still growing.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#16
post #9

It didn't take too long before it was time to stop reading this article. After two paragraphs of this kind of stuff its easy to fill in the blanks. America will do fine in the future. It is easy to lose site of this when looking at things on the surface such as imports vs. exports in the US and emerging markets vs the stale US economy. America has the best univerities in the world, and the largest amount of highly ed…

The people I worry about in the U.S. are the ones who will not be equipped to be entrepreneurs, innovators, or knowledge management types. Only about 30% of Americans earn a college degree. We university types tend to forget they exist, just as most of us forget that the Earth is 70% ocean. They are just off our cognitive rader screens, not part of our universe.

I'm wondering if those of us who dream about creating companies and changing the world can start to envision a future that provides opportunities for a broad swath of working class Americans.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#17
Someone needs to write an article that says "America will be okay." There are a lot of things we're doing wrong, but at the same time, a lot of things we're doing right. We want to make sure we stop the bad things from getting too bad, and the good things from turning bad. And sometimes (oftentimes), we're completely wrong about what was good or bad for us in the first place but things have been working out for hundreds of years anyway. So as long as we keep trying our hardest to do what's right, things will probably be okay.

But then of course everyone would just nod their heads and we wouldn't have all this interesting discussion.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#18
post #6

The funny thing is China isn't an imperialist country. They're primarily concerned with their internal affairs and with the rest of the world insofar as they need their raw materials and advanced technology. They're not very interested in leading and controlling the world like the west seems to be so obssessed with.

First of all, you seem to be ignoring China's wars with India and Vietnam, the Chinese attempt to overthrow the government of Malaysia, territorial claims to Taiwan (and a dozen smaller chunks of land), their continuing support of North Korea, as well as their explicit program of population dilution going on in Tibet and Xinjiang.

Anyhow, imperial ambitions grow with capacity. For now, China asserts itself in its "backyard" (and Africa -- check out the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation). Chinese reach will almost certainly extend if their military competition dwindles.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#19
post #9

It didn't take too long before it was time to stop reading this article. After two paragraphs of this kind of stuff its easy to fill in the blanks. America will do fine in the future. It is easy to lose site of this when looking at things on the surface such as imports vs. exports in the US and emerging markets vs the stale US economy. America has the best univerities in the world, and the largest amount of highly ed…

The people I worry about in the U.S. are the ones who will not be equipped to be entrepreneurs, innovators, or knowledge management types. Only about 30% of Americans earn a college degree. We university types tend to forget they exist, just as most of us forget that the Earth is 70% ocean. They are just off our cognitive rader screens, not part of our universe. I'm wondering if those of us who dream about creating c…

Why should we? Honestly they live better than the bottom 70% has ever done, they have access to fresh fruit and healthy meat even in the middle of winter, they have heated houses, indoor bathrooms with flushing toilets, roofs that doesn't leak and better medical-care than in any other period in history.

There may be bigger differences between the classes than there were 40 year ago, but thats a strawman - progress is measured in whether or not you advance, and doesn't depend on whether or not your neighbor advances more.

Re: Macro Perspective: Is This America's Great Decline?

#20
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US economy tanks, everybody else tanks.

Regarless of what happens in the shortterm, the US will be the dominant power in the 21st century.

So is Europe. But do you really want the US to be relative to China as Europe is relative to the US?
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