Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years • Hacker News Board

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#101

Post by mikeash » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 12:17 AM UTC

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #98

mikeash wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much competition is there going to be the bail bondsman for the homeless guy who gets picked up for vagrancy, or a poor person working paycheck to paycheck who already owes his soul to the local payday lenders? Your proposal sounds like a great way to get excellent bail services for people who have money, but that’s not how the courts are supposed to work.

> Your proposal sounds like a great way to get excellent bail services for people who have money, but that’s not how the courts are supposed to work. Sure about that? The way this country is heading is "One dollar = One vote". And once a sector gets accustomed to a stream of cash, there's no way to stop that flow of money.. No matter how dirty that money is.

I am sure that’s not how they’re supposed to work. How they actually work is another matter.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#102

Post by candiodari » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 12:20 AM UTC

throwaway_boi wrote: post #39

netsharc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wouldn't algorithms be easy to examine? At the least you can test it with similar circumstances and modify the "race" variable and see if the results are consistent or different. Humans have many self-image protective layers when questioned (e.g. "I'm not racist, I have black friends!"), Bbut hopefully algorithms are more transparent...

Race variable is often correlated with other data. Look at red lining in real estate/banking. They marked black neighbourhoods with red boxes, white neighbourhoods with green. The bank would approve business and home loans depending on if you were in a red or green area. Algorithmically the banks did not engage in a racist practice but systemically they are.

And it is very well known how to test and correct for that. In a human, however, it cannot be corrected. As you point out, it can be very hard to see what rules have to do with races.

I would argue that in some cases it's bloody hard to see that you're doing it yourself.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#103

Post by candiodari » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 12:22 AM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #41

candiodari wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article also proves things that people were unwilling to accept in this article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19253333 There people always made the point that human judges making just decisions based on fairness. Well, clearly not. Algorithms would be another, better way to know exactly what makes the determination if a person should be released awaiting trial or not.

"There people always made the point that human judges making just decisions based on fairness." I once had the 'pleasure' of working with a Magistrate. She was the most bigoted, opinionated person I've ever worked with. Judges are at best, just like everyone else.

I personally think the biggest problem is that people even track their "conviction rate", ESPECIALLY public prosecutors.

But it's worse for prosecutors: they get evaluated on it. Convicting people is all that matters. And then people complain the prisons are too full ...

If we replaced that metric by "how many years of freedom without serious crimes" did you create in defendants, using punishments ... and using just letting them go ... that would make a world of difference.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#104

Post by pkaye » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 12:30 AM UTC

FireBeyond wrote: post #64

DoreenMichele wrote: post #15

I wish we would focus more on reweaving our tattered social fabric so people can access housing, healthcare, etc affordably and consistently. We also need to make it easier for parents to put their kids first. From what I gather, money spent on preschool reduces money spent on prison down the line as just one example of the direct and known connection between how we treat our kids and crime statistics. I'm not saying…

> "Fire fighting" gets you hailed as a hero. "Fire prevention" tends to be dismissed as "You didn't really do anything. You just got lucky." Humans are super bad at counting the disasters that didn't happen, but should/would have. So "fire fighting" is more attractive, "sexy" and heroic. I was at a Fire Service training course this last few weekends. And something one of the Fire / Medics said really resonated with m…

We see this even in software development. Keeping a code base relatively bug free vs fixing a critical bug in production. If you do the first, many people will assume the work was trivial but you will receive accolades for fixing that production bug.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#105

Post by brett40324 » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 1:02 AM UTC

andrewla wrote: post #26

I'm surprised that one of the simplest solutions hasn't been tried. Bail bondsmen are restricted by statute on how much they can charge; we should at least consider lowering the rate from 10% to something much lower (1-2%?) and putting tools like follow-up text messages, etc., in the hands of these agencies. It's not ideal but it is in their best interest to ensure that their clients show up in court rather than have…

2% of a bond is laughable. A lot of bonds for misdemeanors are 500 or 1000 usd. So someone could bail out for 5 or 10 bucks! A more serious crime with a 10,000 bond, at 2%, one could get out for 200. I have never ever heard of anyone getting a text from a bail bondsman. If you dont show, you break your bond agreement, and get arrested on a warrant for failure to appear!

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#106

Post by hirundo » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 1:10 AM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #99

hirundo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For people not yet convicted, I agree. For the already convicted it seems less dystopian than locking them in a concrete and steel cage with violent felons.

Aren't the "violent felons" in prison, while those not yet convicted held in jail?

Typically yes but it's not a fast rule. Prisons are for longer stays, but a shorter felony sentence may be served in a local jail. I knew a convicted violent felon who did most of a year in jail. His next crime was to kill his family and himself. Surveillance wouldn't have helped.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#107

Post by michaericalribo » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 1:18 AM UTC

chaoticmass wrote: post #85

>The study found that being held in jail while awaiting trial also makes it more likely that, two to four years after an initial arrest, you will be engaged in criminal behavior or unemployed. Correlation vs causation, yadda yadda

Thankfully, there’s more to publishing in top journals than ‘yadda yadda.’ Instrumental variables allow for statements about causality, which is exactly the statistical tool the authors used.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#108

Post by perfmode » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 1:25 AM UTC

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #98

mikeash wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much competition is there going to be the bail bondsman for the homeless guy who gets picked up for vagrancy, or a poor person working paycheck to paycheck who already owes his soul to the local payday lenders? Your proposal sounds like a great way to get excellent bail services for people who have money, but that’s not how the courts are supposed to work.

> Your proposal sounds like a great way to get excellent bail services for people who have money, but that’s not how the courts are supposed to work. Sure about that? The way this country is heading is "One dollar = One vote". And once a sector gets accustomed to a stream of cash, there's no way to stop that flow of money.. No matter how dirty that money is.

Are you being descriptive or normative?

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#109

Post by philwelch » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 1:39 AM UTC

Hello71 wrote: post #77

philwelch wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I'm a bail bondsman, I'm probably already sending text messages to my clients to make sure they show up in court, because if they don't, I'm the one out the money unless I go pick them up and take them to the county jail myself. I'm not sure about ankle bracelets, but there's no reason they couldn't be part of the current bail system, either--if I'm a bail bondsman, I'd give a discount to any client that wears an…

I don't think private bondsmen in the US can legally contract to require people to wear ankle bracelets. More fundamentally though, these sorts of "free market" theories tend to assume an unreasonable amount of options and knowledge of potential clients. See: payday loans. Sure, in theory all the details of the loans are pre-agreed, and customers sure do have a lot of options. In practice, the most ethical providers…

> I don't think private bondsmen in the US can legally contract to require people to wear ankle bracelets.

Well, that's something to think about, then. It wouldn't even necessarily just have to be between the suspect and the bondsman; you might also allow judges to allow bail contingent on the suspect wearing a locating device.

Re: Unable to Post Bail? You Will Pay for That for Many Years

#110

Post by crankylinuxuser » Tue, Mar 05, 2019, 2:05 AM UTC

perfmode wrote: post #108

crankylinuxuser wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your proposal sounds like a great way to get excellent bail services for people who have money, but that’s not how the courts are supposed to work. Sure about that? The way this country is heading is "One dollar = One vote". And once a sector gets accustomed to a stream of cash, there's no way to stop that flow of money.. No matter how dirty that money is.

Are you being descriptive or normative?

I'm afraid I don't understand.