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The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

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Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#51

Post by flukus »

pmorici wrote: post #23

If the modern day poor are living an equivalent life style to the middle class from 50 years ago is that really a problem? That’s what part of this article seems to describe. Also would be interesting how much of this is attributable to the rise in prevalence of two income households. 2x a middle income would be considered wealthy by the measure used in this study

> If the modern day poor are living an equivalent life style to the middle class from 50 years ago is that really a problem?

It wouldn't be if that were the case but it doesn't seem to be. Middle class 50 years ago usually meant raising kids in a house on a single income, something that few can do today. We might have more stuff and more entertainment options, but that's not what matters.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#52

Post by thoruser1 »

dclowd9901 wrote: post #50
thoruser1 wrote: post #47

Not only Chibongo, but the entire United States will become the capital of the third world. Thanks to you, neckbeard beta orbiters and your representatives: Alexandria Of-Color and Kamala Harris.

I can't begin to unravel what you're trying to get at, but the problem of a shrinking middle class is one of abject capitalism with no oversight, coupled with consumer credit availability and no proper social safety nets vis-a-vis single payer healthcare and free college. These are all well-documented cornerstones of countries with a thriving middle class (America, included).

I think your virtue signaling (or True Belief) is better suited for Google internal employee network. If you aren't a Goolag employee yet, consider applying there.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#53

Post by bsanr »

tptacek wrote: post #40

We should be careful with maps like this of Chicago, since the time period we're talking about (1970-) coincides with the phasing out of redlining, which kept black families out of white stronghold neighborhoods. It could just be that what you're looking at is the gentrification of the north side and "white flight" into the suburbs. Also, the numbers for this map don't sync up with the "rich blocks, poor blocks" cens…

My understanding (however much it is relevant) is that Chicago is still one of the most segregated large cities in the country. So, the end of redlining/contract housing/etc. did not mean the end of segregation and its effects.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#54

Post by stunt »

jaabe wrote: post #29

How is the middle class in the US in general? This is completely anecdotal and based on random strangers on the internet, so it may be wrong, but Americans seem more careful with their money today than they did 15 years ago. I buy a lot of board games, and I’ve noticed how discussions on $100 kickstarters have started being about how it could break someone’s budget. I’m personally part of the Scandinavian middle clas…

Indeed there are increasing number of warnings, articles, and studies saying that middle-class is shrinking. And it is obviously very hard to understand it if you are not part of it yourself. Probably much harder to find anyone agreeing with that if you post it to a tech/engineering focused community.

But we should not ignore these warnings.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#55

Post by rjf72 »

jaabe wrote: post #29

How is the middle class in the US in general? This is completely anecdotal and based on random strangers on the internet, so it may be wrong, but Americans seem more careful with their money today than they did 15 years ago. I buy a lot of board games, and I’ve noticed how discussions on $100 kickstarters have started being about how it could break someone’s budget. I’m personally part of the Scandinavian middle clas…

This [1] is a study I read some time back that broke down the numbers. The paper was focused on the chiseling out of the middle class, as is this one. For instance in 1979 the middle class controlled 46% of all income, and the upper/rich classes controlled 30%. Today (well at least today as of 2014) the rich and upper class control 63% with the middle class left with 26%. There's even been a chiseling out of the middle class as a whole declining from 38.8% of society to 32% of society.

But the eye opener is this. This is the change in the size of each economic group between 1979 and 2014 as a percent of the total population:

- Rich: 0.1% -> 1.8%

- Upper Middle Class: 12.9% -> 29.4%

- Middle Class: 38.8% -> 32%

- Lower Middle Class: 23.9% -> 17.1%

- Poor or Near-Poor: 24.3% -> 19.8%

Since statistics like this are certainly subject to biased interpretation and 'massaging', this [2] is a wiki section on the political stance of the Urban Institute. In any case though the paper is very readable and methodology very transparent. I found it all eye opening to the point that it actually changed my worldview. America is doing something very right economically. Note the increase in the upper middle class is more than double the decline in the size of the middle class meaning in that time period you also saw people moving from poor or lower middle class to upper middle class.

I'd hypothesize that what you're seeing is simply less of a bubble. 15 years ago the internet was much more of a luxury and the individuals using it were reflective of that. Now it's ubiquitous and the class distributions are much more balanced.

[1] - https://www.urban.org/research/publication/growing-size-and-...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Institute#Political_stan...

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#56

Post by rjf72 »

forrestthewoods wrote: post #45

> For UIC to consider a census tract middle income, the average per capita income there had to fall between $28,712 and $43,068. What a hilariously narrow definition of “middle class”. That’s roughly $14.35 to $21.53 per hour. This entire analysis is a waste of time. Is the underlying data available? I’d love to take a crack at producing some better visualizations.

I suspect they were using the data from here [1]. Quite well organized and easy to play with, even has numeric indexing of the various areas so you can mix and match the data easily!

[1] - https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/cdph/provdrs/health_da...

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#58

Post by lotsofpulp »

sandworm101 wrote: post #35
jedmeyers wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chicago has been overwhelmingly governed by the Democrats, yet they things you've listed are usually pushed by the Republicans. And people leaving are usually going to the majority Republican states and cities. How can you explain this phenomenon?

Chicago's problems are caused by things well beyond chicago. These local issues are driven by national choices. Elect all the best mayors you can, but America's economy is dominated by the national government, and to a lesser extent states. Chicago's problems will be solved when the nation breaks free of the ussual squabbles and opts to resolve social issues rather than scream dogma at each other.

Chicago, and Illinois, has made its own problems far worse than other cities and states by a completely corrupting their defined benefit pension system. Also see NJ/CT/KY. They have hundreds of billions in debt coming due, the figures are staggering. It also doesn’t help that the weather in Chicago is not to most people’s liking, so other than employment or existing family, most people aren’t going to choose to move to Chicago.

When Warren Buffet says he’s avoiding doing business for the next few decades in certain regions due to the defined benefit pension debt, I would certainly be making sure I have backup options or a way out.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#59

Post by kasey_junk »

chipotle_coyote wrote: post #32
pmorici wrote: post #23

If the modern day poor are living an equivalent life style to the middle class from 50 years ago is that really a problem? That’s what part of this article seems to describe. Also would be interesting how much of this is attributable to the rise in prevalence of two income households. 2x a middle income would be considered wealthy by the measure used in this study

I don't understand where you're asserting the article says that. The fact that neighborhoods whose per capita income was around the middle in 1970 are in the lower quintiles now does not mean that the 1970 middle class and the 2017 lower class have "equivalent lifestyles." It means the neighborhoods are poorer.

They literally outline a house that has changed occupants (white/middle class to Latino/lower class) but the living/working situation was the same.

Re: The middle class is shrinking and in Chicago it’s almost gone

#60

Post by kasey_junk »

tptacek wrote: post #40

We should be careful with maps like this of Chicago, since the time period we're talking about (1970-) coincides with the phasing out of redlining, which kept black families out of white stronghold neighborhoods. It could just be that what you're looking at is the gentrification of the north side and "white flight" into the suburbs. Also, the numbers for this map don't sync up with the "rich blocks, poor blocks" cens…

The linked blog post is better. Reading through the methodology it seems this is just white flight. At least without representing the full regional map that would be the easiest conclusion.
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