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SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

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Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#131

Congratulation to SpaceX. That being said, we should take a step back and stop drinking the Elon Musk Koolaid. This has been done flawlessly by Russian Soyouz hundreds of times over the last decades (with almost no failures). This has also been done with the Shuttle.

Docking to the ISS? Sure. But a reusable first stage? That has tremendous implications and had never been done.

The landing of first stage is definitely worth celebrating. But I honestly don't get all the hype about today's news:

- SpaceX already sent multiple times almost the same capsule to the ISS before for cargo. Today's launch is just a small modification of those ones.

- Soyuz is mundanely sending astronauts all the time to ISS.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed! Notable achievement, but not game-changing. One thing I remind myself is that Elon really didn't start Tesla. He's been snow balling off initial success and continues to accelerate thanks to collaboration with brilliant people.

Some might argue thats an achievement in itself.

How to be successful? You need to be associated with early stage successful projects. Sometimes it is luck, some people have also talent to discover those early successes.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#133
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's definitely neat, but why not aim higher? Depending on your age? I'm in my 30s: My goal here is to live on Mars. SpaceX's colony is aimed at being able to support 1M people, with something like 80,000 leaving Earth each Mars transit window on a BFR/Starship. Save some money now, wait 20-30 years for them to get the initial hard colony built and then buy my ticket. Might not work, but I think I'll at least get c…

I like you ambition. However I seem to become more conservative and nostalgic with age. The thought of going on a one-way trip to Mars when you are 60 is scary. It is probably too cold and monochromatic for my taste. But thank you for the idea of longer term goals - "Experience zero-gravity and see Earth from outer atmosphere" is now on the list.

Virgin Galactic might make that happen sooner than later.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#134
post #108

My “cool things to do once in a lifetime” list just got a new item - Watch SpaceX send humans to ISS. There is this strange urge to actually witness my species achieving great things.

That's definitely neat, but why not aim higher? Depending on your age? I'm in my 30s: My goal here is to live on Mars. SpaceX's colony is aimed at being able to support 1M people, with something like 80,000 leaving Earth each Mars transit window on a BFR/Starship. Save some money now, wait 20-30 years for them to get the initial hard colony built and then buy my ticket. Might not work, but I think I'll at least get c…

Starship is supposed to carry a couple hundred passengers. That would be a few hundred ships all launching at once; while I share the enthusiasm I’m not sure that’s realistic due to the [lack of] economic incentives involved.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#135

Congratulation to SpaceX. That being said, we should take a step back and stop drinking the Elon Musk Koolaid. This has been done flawlessly by Russian Soyouz hundreds of times over the last decades (with almost no failures). This has also been done with the Shuttle.

I think you are underappreciating this in a big way.

Prior to this, the USA did not have the capability to transport astronauts to orbit without working with Russia, and if Russia were to just decide no longer to cooperate for arbitrary diplomatic reasons, we'd be screwed. As you know, the shuttle program was halted some time ago and the vehicle was a total cow the whole time it was in service.

So whereas this has been done before on a technical level, this represents a substantial increase in the USA's actual present space capability, and a major step in reversing the decline of the USA's competence in space.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Docking to the ISS? Sure. But a reusable first stage? That has tremendous implications and had never been done.

The landing of first stage is definitely worth celebrating. But I honestly don't get all the hype about today's news: - SpaceX already sent multiple times almost the same capsule to the ISS before for cargo. Today's launch is just a small modification of those ones. - Soyuz is mundanely sending astronauts all the time to ISS.

It isn't almost the same capsule. That was discussed during the post-launch press conference. It's almost a complete redesign and they actually regretted not using more of Dragon 1.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Docking to the ISS? Sure. But a reusable first stage? That has tremendous implications and had never been done.

The landing of first stage is definitely worth celebrating. But I honestly don't get all the hype about today's news: - SpaceX already sent multiple times almost the same capsule to the ISS before for cargo. Today's launch is just a small modification of those ones. - Soyuz is mundanely sending astronauts all the time to ISS.

> Today's launch is just a small modification of those ones

No it wasn't. I think you misunderstand what today's mission was about and what it opens for the future. Today's launch was a major departure from Normal SpaceX Activities. Launching a human-rated capsule to space is no "small modification".

> Soyuz is mundanely sending astronauts all the time to ISS.

They have exactly zero (0) vision or plans or constructed spaceships intended to start a Mars Colony. This makes SpaceX activities different from Russia activities in a pretty clear way. When SpaceX achieves a milestone it's a direct stepping stone to colonizing Mars. When Russia sends cosmonauts to the space station, they are sending cosmonauts to the space station and have no future plans. The two things are very different.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#138
post #135

Congratulation to SpaceX. That being said, we should take a step back and stop drinking the Elon Musk Koolaid. This has been done flawlessly by Russian Soyouz hundreds of times over the last decades (with almost no failures). This has also been done with the Shuttle.

I think you are underappreciating this in a big way. Prior to this, the USA did not have the capability to transport astronauts to orbit without working with Russia, and if Russia were to just decide no longer to cooperate for arbitrary diplomatic reasons, we'd be screwed. As you know, the shuttle program was halted some time ago and the vehicle was a total cow the whole time it was in service. So whereas this has be…

Also: From a market perspective, this gives agencies such as the ESA a choice about who to work with in order to launch manned flights. That's huge. It's a transition from no competition to competition, and a transition from technological stasis to forward activity. (Soyuz was first launched in the 1960s and we are still using it? It's kind of crazy.)

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's definitely neat, but why not aim higher? Depending on your age? I'm in my 30s: My goal here is to live on Mars. SpaceX's colony is aimed at being able to support 1M people, with something like 80,000 leaving Earth each Mars transit window on a BFR/Starship. Save some money now, wait 20-30 years for them to get the initial hard colony built and then buy my ticket. Might not work, but I think I'll at least get c…

Starship is supposed to carry a couple hundred passengers. That would be a few hundred ships all launching at once; while I share the enthusiasm I’m not sure that’s realistic due to the [lack of] economic incentives involved.

> That would be a few hundred ships all launching at once

Yes, that's the plan as described by Elon! Maybe not "all at once" but over the course of some days/weeks, yes.

> I’m not sure that’s realistic due to the [lack of] economic incentives involved

Every Mars thread someone pops in to say this, but it simply isn't true. There are major economic incentives to go to Mars, and selling tickets is #1 of hundreds. There are basically infinite ways of making money by going to Mars and I'm really upset that the HN crowd is so dedicated to the line that there's no money on Mars. There's trillions of dollars on Mars.

With tickets priced at $200,000 or so as Elon has described, each Starship should have launch-day revenues of $40,000,000 if each ones carries 200 people. Wowza that's solid, no? And it's just tickets so far we're talking about, no science research or other goods or services or plans or anything at all, just consumer tickets.

There's plenty of money to be made.

----

Edit: I guess I've been banned? I'm no longer allowed to post on HN this morning. Here's my response to the post below.

I think we are on different pages here. I'm not talking about tourism, I'm talking about people who will build libraries, write books, dig for oil or whatever, innovate new solar panels, build houses, create industries, make movies, build new spaceships to the stars, go to the poles and think about philosophy, create new electronics, work on particle physics, etc.

Not tourism!!

> (a) people who can afford 200k and (b) people willing to risk a possible one-way trip.

Yes? There ought to be tens of millions of such people in 20-50 years. Why wouldn't there be? Elon gave us half a century notice to save our money. We're doing it. If they build it, we'll be ready to come.

> curious to hear examples

Okay. The Mars Colony seems like the first stepping stone into future solar system exploration. There will be significant opportunities there to build new products and drive new frontiers. I'll come back and write some specific examples soon, but I see it as far more economically interesting than Europe coming to North America in the long run: the possibilities are seriously endless, given the resources available, the lack of commercial claim to them, and the incredible rarity and quantity of those resources can change our ideas about what can be reasonably built by humans/robots in our lifetimes.

Re: SpaceX Crew Dragon Docks with International Space Station

#140

Congratulation to SpaceX. That being said, we should take a step back and stop drinking the Elon Musk Koolaid. This has been done flawlessly by Russian Soyouz hundreds of times over the last decades (with almost no failures). This has also been done with the Shuttle.

Human space flight capabailities have been restored to the United States.

This is a private company.

Elon is the CEO but this victory is about the SpaceX team, not him.

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