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Lyft Files S-1

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Re: Lyft Files S-1

#142
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lyft has enriched its investors far more than any baseball player could even dream of. You're just looking at accounting losses. But when this IPOs, early stage investors will have all made billions.

But that's not creating value. Unless the lottery creates value for people who buy the right tickets.

The current price is the market's expectation of value throughout the existence of the company. The market believes that these past cash flows are not indicative of the company's future ability to create accounting value. And you may choose to value a growth company by its historical cash flows, but the market doesn't.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point isn't it cost-effective for Lyft to just build its own infrastructure?

With cloud vs DC you also needs to consider that re-sizing datacenter space is a very slow process, and if you're wrong about how much you need it's a massive pain. Buy too much and you're wasting money, buy too little and you're stuck throwing eng time at scrambling to keep your services from falling over, and bottlenecking your entire org with resource constraints. That's not a judgement on whether it's worth it fo…

But let's say you have a 300m budget.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#144
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, a $150M-90M personal net worth at the 18B-30B valuation window. They're not going to starve either.

Idk. I’m very bearish on Lyft. It’s a pure bet on US ridesharing. They didn’t expand internationally (now those markets are saturated) and didn’t get into delivery (Uber Eats alone is worth 5-7b).

Do you think ridesharing is just going to die as a product or do you think it will become easily commoditized and all margins will essentially disappear? I think it's going to be around for at least another 10-15 years, and considering how much money uber and lyft had to burn to get to where they are now, I feel like it will be quite hard for competitors to capture relevant amounts of market share in the US

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#145
post #12

>In January 2019, we entered into an addendum to our commercial agreement with AWS, pursuant to which we committed to spend an aggregate of at least $300 million between January 2019 and December 2021 on AWS services. If we fail to meet the minimum purchase commitment during any year, we may be required to pay the difference, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Not as bad a…

Amazon gave them the fuck off price and they signed the contract.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they slowly turn into a datacenter company and lose sight of being a ride sharing company. That's the same reason billion dollar companies rent buildings instead of owning them.

Uber hosts its own infrastructure, so does Google, so does Facebook. All three of those companies have no problems remaining focused on their business models without turning into a "datacenter company." I strongly dislike the notion that on-prem hosting is somehow a bad thing, or too cumbersome, or otherwise totally solved by cloud providers. AWS specifically is hugely convenient in a number of ways, but it doesn't c…

The trouble is when people build around Amazon, they get locked into a lot of those services. Sure you can run your own DBs instead of using RDS, but what if you start using their proprietary rubbish, like Knesis or DynamoDB?

You have to rewrite application to use something else that's open source and self-hostable.

For new startups, I honestly recommend using DigitalOcean or Vultur. You don't get all the AWS components, but you can build around flexibility. If you have to move, you can take all your Terraform and Anisble scripts, and port them to a new provider (and yes, you do have to rewrite your Terraform config. Every provider is insanely different and the magic of multi-cloud is a myth, but it's still easier than trying to move off of AWS specific services).

I remember back in the day, Stackoverflow ran everything off of a single, very expensive, dedicated server. I've worked at other shops where we've migrated stuff from AWS to self hosted solutions to reduce our $200k/month AWS bill.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they slowly turn into a datacenter company and lose sight of being a ride sharing company. That's the same reason billion dollar companies rent buildings instead of owning them.

Uber hosts its own infrastructure, so does Google, so does Facebook. All three of those companies have no problems remaining focused on their business models without turning into a "datacenter company." I strongly dislike the notion that on-prem hosting is somehow a bad thing, or too cumbersome, or otherwise totally solved by cloud providers. AWS specifically is hugely convenient in a number of ways, but it doesn't c…

Google is a bad comparison here IMO because Google IS a datacenter company. No different than Amazon... They run datacenters and offer IaaS to customers, and piggy back off of that.

I agree with you on Uber and Facebook though.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#148

As a former engineer at Lyft, looks like my RSUs would be worth ~2x my salary per year. Typical RSU grants are 25% of your salary per year, so those Lyft RSUs would have been a good return. But that's at a $18-25B valuation. I think $15B is more realistic given the losses and most recent round of funding. Lyft is in a tough industry. Kudos to Logan Green for getting this far. Good to see a UCSB alumn do well.

I don't see how these companies will stop losing $1b+ a year each year. The public markets will not be too kind.

The end game was supposed to be autonomous taxis (cutting the driver out). I don't see how that's going to happen before they run out of money unless they 1) significantly raise prices or 2) take increasingly bigger cuts from drivers.

Personally I will be shorting as soon as I can.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#149
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber hosts its own infrastructure, so does Google, so does Facebook. All three of those companies have no problems remaining focused on their business models without turning into a "datacenter company." I strongly dislike the notion that on-prem hosting is somehow a bad thing, or too cumbersome, or otherwise totally solved by cloud providers. AWS specifically is hugely convenient in a number of ways, but it doesn't c…

Google is a bad comparison here IMO because Google IS a datacenter company. No different than Amazon... They run datacenters and offer IaaS to customers, and piggy back off of that. I agree with you on Uber and Facebook though.

Google wasn't really a cloud provider for like 15 years and hosted their own infrastructure that entire time.

Re: Lyft Files S-1

#150

For those who can't wait to short Lyft/Uber, on average, it takes 10-12 weeks to hit the markets after the initial S-1.

That's far too slow given that they confidentially filed earlier.

e.g. Dropbox (which also confidentially filed earlier) was public 1 month after the public S1.

Realistically, Lyft is public by end of April, barring a Box-style pullback

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