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Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

smithsonianmag.com

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Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#41

Once we can rigorously define what "smarter than a four-year-old" means, then yes. But until we even know what we are talking about, no.

I'm not sure that is true. For example I can tell you are "smarter than a four-year-old", even though we can't rigorously define what that means.

I would even go as far as saying that the fact that we can't rigorously define what "smarter than a four-year-old" means is a limitation of the current intelligence or knowledge of Humans. Part of the trajectory of machine intelligence is independent of our own knowledge, for example through hardware improvements. They could get past our level before we can understand it ourselves.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#42
post #14

Depends on what you consider "smarter" of course. At the moment, the best AI is much smarter at chess than any 4 year old. AI is also better at translating text to different languages. It's better at driving cars. But there are still many things a 4 year old can do that no AI can do. Sometimes I feel like our AI research is leading us to consider ourselves increasingly unintelligent rather than our computers more int…

Will a submarine ever be a better swimmer than Michael Phelps?

Not only do each have their pros and cons when traversing water, but I'm not sure if a submarine swims anyway.

I think it's more than just semantics. And I think we're not close to such a submarine or such a computer because we've been doing other things with both mostly.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#43
The question is really whether an AI will ever be able to process all the sensory data that a 4-year-old has (including time in the womb), plus the input from epigenetic data resulting from the parent's environment. Plus data from the particular gut flora inherited from the mother and influenced by the environment.

We can see no roadblock preventing advances from getting to that point. But the volume of data is admittedly beyond our ability to currently accurately even quantify much less record or process.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#44
post #9

"Ever" is not a useful word here. It's like saying "Will four year olds ever be grown in pods?" A better headline might be "Can AI learn as flexibly as a four year old with today's known techniques?", to which the answer is of course "No".

When the question is literally 'ever', the only thing that matters is the relative rate of improvement. Do computers get better at "learning" faster than young kids, e.g. comparing kids 20 years ago and now with computers 20 years ago and now? It seems to me that computers got a lot better while child development remained essentially the same. Unless that will change, given time—infinity should be enough—eventually computers will be "smarter".

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#45
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those sound like different questions. The original is asking if it is theoretically plausible. I don’t think that’s out of line.

The OP's point was that adding "ever" in the title means the question isn't just relevant to our current understanding of what is theoretically plausible but it also doesn't exclude some currently unknown theory that might be derived at a distant point in the future. While I do see - and to an extent agree with - their point, I there is a lot more wrong with that heading than just the lack of a contextual end date.

> The OP's point was that adding "ever" in the title means the question isn't just relevant to our current understanding of what is theoretically plausible but it also doesn't exclude some currently unknown theory that might be derived at a distant point in the future.

Or, somewhat more plausibly, some theory or technique that constitutes a minor subfield right now but could be the next big thing in another 20-30 years, or whenever someone just makes it really fast.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#46
post #16
post #9

"Ever" is not a useful word here. It's like saying "Will four year olds ever be grown in pods?" A better headline might be "Can AI learn as flexibly as a four year old with today's known techniques?", to which the answer is of course "No".

Right, the title of the article is inane. Brains just process information. Computers process information and we continue to make them better at it. Eventually, computers will process information at least as well as brains do for various definitions of "well". https://www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_can_we_build_ai_without...

how can we know that computers process information?

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#47
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Because I continue to be more and more amazed by Google Translate everyday. It gets subtleties and strange things right that I never thought a computer translation system could get right. I'm an ESL-speaker, and I think certainly the translation I can do to/from English to my mother language is going to be inferior to Google Translate any day of the week, ignoring completely the fact that I take a _LONG_ time…

If you need to translate what you are going to say, e.g. your thoughts are not in your targeted language, then you are not exactly a speaker. And I can assure you, Google translate is fairly awful. Sometimes my wife is showing me the translation from English to French, and it would take me a while to understand the French meaning. I won't even start on Chinese/Japanese to English (and to French ) or the reverse.

It has been getting better but Google Translate still lacks context (obviously) which makes it fail in some subtle but important ways. For example, I've just run your comment through Google Translate from English to Romanian (my native language) and Italian (which I understand pretty well) and it does a pretty good job until your last sentence, which in Romanian it translates as:

> Nici măcar nu voi începe pe chineză / japoneză în engleză (și în franceză) sau invers.

and in Italian it goes like:

> Non inizierò nemmeno dal cinese / dal giapponese all'inglese (e dal francese) o viceversa.

Now, this is literally a perfect translation, as "I won't even start" would literally be translated into the Romanian "Nici măcar nu voi începe" and the Italian "Non inizierò nemmeno", but the meaning of the English phrase is totally different from meaning of the Romanian and Italian phrases. In English the meaning of your last sentence goes something like this:

> Don't make me start a discussion on how badly Google Translate does the Chinese/Japanese to English translation

while in both Romanian and Italian the meaning of the last sentence (as run through Google Translate) doesn't make almost any sense, because it tells us, the auditory, that the speaker literally won't start "on/from Chinese/Japanese to English", but we are not instructed on what the speaker will start, we have no idea what he's referring to. Of course, this being an English-spoken forum and us knowing English (on top of our native languages) we can understand that Google Translate used a literal translation of "I won't even start" to our native languages and we can make the necessary adjustment in our heads, but to users who have no knowledge of the English language whatsoever this would sound totally alien.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#49
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the best AI is much smarter at chess than any 4 year old An AI is not "smarter at chess" than a 4 year old any more than a calculator is "smarter at arithmetic" than a 4 year old or a car is "smarter at moving fast" than a 4 year old. A modern AI program is simply a computational statistics program crunching some numbers. It has no "smarts" or "understanding" of the game in any meaningful sense. The fact that it can…

I feel like that with that line of reasoning you could also say that a 34-year-old isn't smarter than a 4-year-old. The 34-year-old just has a bigger dataset.

The changes I've seen in the past year go far beyond what could be explained by a "bigger dataset" alone.

Her brain processing is changing on the most fundamental level. Her ability to focus on a task has improved massively. Far less random gibberish is coming out of her. She is now capable of thinking how others would feel in her shoes and now plans for the future. Her random output isn't a Markov chain with a better dataset. The input from our world is changing the wiring up there in a way that no ML model is changed by its data.

As someone who has learned a 2nd language as a child and a 3rd as an adult, I also know personally that it's far more than the dataset alone.

EDIT: updated comment after re-reading the chain.

Re: Will A.I. Ever Be Smarter Than a Four-Year-Old?

#50
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you need to translate what you are going to say, e.g. your thoughts are not in your targeted language, then you are not exactly a speaker. And I can assure you, Google translate is fairly awful. Sometimes my wife is showing me the translation from English to French, and it would take me a while to understand the French meaning. I won't even start on Chinese/Japanese to English (and to French ) or the reverse.

It has been getting better but Google Translate still lacks context (obviously) which makes it fail in some subtle but important ways. For example, I've just run your comment through Google Translate from English to Romanian (my native language) and Italian (which I understand pretty well) and it does a pretty good job until your last sentence, which in Romanian it translates as: > Nici măcar nu voi începe pe chineză…

Ironically, I think the GP meant exactly what google translate translated, and that your interpretation is wrong. He says that it takes him a long time to translate French and he won't even start if the original text is Chinese or Japanese. :)

Edit: check replies below

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