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A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

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Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#91
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no restrictions on height nor density in the Docklands area of Dublin That's a tiny area compared to the demand for housing. > your denser/higher suggestion is being done and is having no affect Nonsense. Dublin has a very low density compared to any other European city. It's almost rural. > Dublin has an estimated 40000 vacant residential units ...which is clearly not enough to lower rents given the 134735…

If 40000 is accurate, that's a vacancy rate of 3%. Which sounds pretty low to me. That's one month every 3 years.

You're assume the 1.3 million inhabitants all live alone, which doesn't sound likely to me.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#92
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the property owners rather have the units sit empty than rent them out at market rates?

I don't know, I agree that all the speculation about speculation sounds crazy to me -- the rent usually adds up to the cost of buying (via the interest rate, I mean) so not taking it is an "order 1" loss. One possible reason is rent control, can anyone comment? If what you risk is getting stuck for 30 years with a tenant paying last year's rent (and you think it will rise) then that could be serious money, of the sor…

There is no way a landlord in Dublin can get stuck with a tenant for 30 years. Rent increases are capped/set at 4% a year. The length of a lease is meant to be six years, but a landlord can terminate a tenancy at practically any time using a number of exemptions/loopholes in the law – to let a family member use the property, selling the property, refurbishing the property, etc. The rent increase limits should apply between tenancies too, as the landlord is legally required to tell new tenants the rent of the previous rent if they ask, but it is up to the prospective tenant to enforce this. At a time when demand for rental properties has never been higher, landlords can easily choose the tenants that don't ask these kinds of questions.

The root cause of high rents in Dublin is two-fold: competition for rental units is extremely high, which drives prices up; meanwhile rent is usually a function of the mortgage that exists on the property, which is determined by the price of the construction and/or the value of the land it's built on – and that's where you get massive amounts of speculation in Dublin. Land in Dublin is so expensive that it drives up the cost of everything else along the chain.

Most of the vacant units in Dublin are old, and in terrible shape. They're largely owned by people who either don't have the resources (money/energy/time) to improve them so they meet minimum standards, or they're owned by people who know they can let them sit for five or ten or twenty years and sell them for a profit then. The site they're on is nearly always going to increase in value, regardless of the state of the property.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#93

Tech workers move into a city and drive up rents. They complain about lack of density driving rents up. Meanwhile, New York and Chicago are not really tech hubs, even though they have dense downtowns. Hong Kong should be the center of the tech universe with all that density, but alas it is not. Maybe the thing that makes tech workers want to live and work somewhere is lack of density?

Given many tech workers can work remotely it seems bizarre that we even need to live in city centres. But alas, businesses still want everyone in the office (often all the time as well).

Still not as good as 100% collocated teams

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#94
post #88
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's buses. They're ugly, loud and extremely uncomfortable Ireland didn't invent these buses just to annoy you, the Volvo buses used in Dublin are used worldwide, including London and Berlin. They're as modern as you can get.

They look good from the outside. It's when you actually want to use one that things go downhill: - Extremely rattly and loud. No idea why, but I assume it's because of the extra resonance created by the double-decker design. Any time the engine is idling, you're shaking with it, and you're likely to get a headache in the long term. Don't even get me started about how it leans and kips hitting tree branches on tight c…

This must be a route-dependent thing (e.g. Sandymount routes would have lots of students on them). My routes rarely/ever have trash or liquids on them, hit branches etc.

Again re: seats and engine....these are the same seats and engines used in Germany and England also.

Still, I prefer the trains to buses in Dublin.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#95
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 40000 is accurate, that's a vacancy rate of 3%. Which sounds pretty low to me. That's one month every 3 years.

Not sure what metric you're using to come up with 3%? Vacancy rate in the state is 12%, or 9% excluding holiday homes (not sure what the figures are for Dublin, but they're way above 3%).

Someone was quoting 40000 but I don't know the source. A 9% vacancy rate indeed sound very high, especially for a hot market... wait does "state" here mean the entire country? So that may include a lot of dying villages where nobody wants to live? Would be interesting to see accurate numbers of Dublin.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#96
post #53
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is because the last to move makes the greatest profit. So people just wait to be the last wave of available apartments so they can hike the price up to whatever. Which leads to a bottleneck of sorts since nobody is willing to demand lower rent which would actually lead to people moving in...

This doesn't make sense to me. I don't think apartment complexes or individual landlords (who generally aren't super sophisticated) are thinking this way. Also, I just don't think this logic is sound. An individual landlord (or apartment) isn't going to affect the market as a whole.

Large investors (billionaires, hedge funds...) do this, and they are powerful enough to drive the market in most cities. Individual landlords usually seek rent.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#97
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kind of makes sense if the apartment is more valuable as new than as having been rented out before. But I do not think that is the case in Dublin. Even if the apartment prices are rising rapidly and you plan to sell the apartment once the price goes up - why not also collect rental yield while you are waiting?

Renting out something is a lot of work managing things. Much easier to keep it empty.

Not only that, but every empty apartment contributes to pushing up the prices by being empty.

Then, when the prices hit peak value in a decade or two the investors might sell and keeping the apartment empty was more effective than renting it.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Partially because people don't want it to be, too. Irish people have an obsession with land, and see any dwelling that isn't at least a semidetached house with a back garden as a "temporary space" for students and unmarried young couples. We just don't like apartments.

> We just don't like apartments. People have legitimate reasons for not liking apartments in Dublin of which noise is a major reason. Lax planning & building regs. dictated to politicians by developers ensured that apartments were small and had neighbours on pretty much every side. Most people who left apartments did so for valid reasons, not an obsession with land. Living long term in 98% of apartments in Dublin wou…

Yes, the building quality is shockingly low and the majority of people accepts that.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#99
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, I live near a small UK town that has some empty commercial properties. I've been told that the landlords are London-based, and the rental rates reflect London rather than local pricing. Allegedly, the landlords are keen to show that all of the properties in their portfolios could in principle attract high rates, and that to let some out cheaper would dilute the brand as perceived by investors. Don't know…

Commercial property often has really long leases, like 10-20 years. So one reason it may sit empty is that an investor thinks a slump will be short & doesn't want to be tied to a low-rent tenant. (Or doesn't want to break up a large space for small tenants, to wait for a large one... or because they are thinking of knocking it down & building housing, etc.) I'm dubious that people in real-estate can't understand loca…

> I'm dubious that people in real-estate can't understand local prices

IIUC, it's not that they don't understand local prices, they instead don't care. At this scale the landlord's focus is investors in the property portfolio, not people who might actually use the property.

Re: A sold-out city? The fight to save Dublin’s nightlife

#100
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renting out something is a lot of work managing things. Much easier to keep it empty.

Not only that, but every empty apartment contributes to pushing up the prices by being empty. Then, when the prices hit peak value in a decade or two the investors might sell and keeping the apartment empty was more effective than renting it.

But you can have an agency manage it for you, for about 10-15%, in any city.

Keeping it empty long-term means leaving on the table an amount of money comparable to the mortgage. You could fill it and buy another one! If they both appreciate, all the better.

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