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Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

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Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#41

Post by farseer »

101001001001 wrote: post #39

For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest. Almost immediately after it was created, machine learning cropped up. Machine learning wasn’t new, it just never had the computational substrate it needed to produce the amazing results it’s become known for. Since ML was already established, it was low hanging fruit and it’s no surprise to see it catch fire so to speak. As time…

>>For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest

We don't have any revolutionary substrate in the pipeline other than silicon in the next 10 years. A 50-100 years? maybe.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#42

Post by PinkMilkshake »

* Deno, or something like it. This general idea of software that interacts with the internet but interacts little with the host OS by default.

* RISC-V, and a general open source hardware revolution.

* Augmented Reality. I don't see VR going anywhere. AR has broader practical applications.

* Voice UI. I think this still counts as niche. The general interaction model at the beginning of the movie Her seems highly plausible to me. Not so much the AGI.

* Desktop/mobile OS convergence. This seems inevitable. The convenience factor is too high and why would the average Joe keep forking out for 2 or 3 computers when they can have 1 that does everything.

* Software formal verification. This is long overdue and we can't continue to be this irresponsible.

* Cryptocurrency, or something like it. I think the need is there, but the current implementation leaves much to be desired.

* Processors with many cores. We're already up to 18 or so on desktop processors. But I expect many more.

* FPGA. I'm less sure about this. 10 years might be to soon. But if your computer was just full of FPGA's and companies could sell you digital hardware through an app store without having to actually manufacture anything, I'm sure they would love it.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#43

Post by anticodon »

Jackypot wrote: post #2

WebAssembly. If it usurps javascript, and there is every reason to believe that it will, then it will revolutionise the web.

I hope it will finally end monopoly of Javascript on the web and better languages will be used for front-end development.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#44

Post by powerslacker »

Automated lending approval. As digital financial systems evolve and conglomerate into a connected ecosystem businesses/people will no longer seek loans -- instead lenders will automatically approve and offer credit that will be instantly available to worthy applicants. This already occurs, but in the future the process will occur in a fraction of the time behind the scenes.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#45

Post by 101001001001 »

farseer wrote: post #41
101001001001 wrote: post #39

For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest. Almost immediately after it was created, machine learning cropped up. Machine learning wasn’t new, it just never had the computational substrate it needed to produce the amazing results it’s become known for. Since ML was already established, it was low hanging fruit and it’s no surprise to see it catch fire so to speak. As time…

>>For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest We don't have any revolutionary substrate in the pipeline other than silicon in the next 10 years. A 50-100 years? maybe.

The substrate is cloud computing. Massive compute available through an api. So much compute was not available to large numbers of people before.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#47

Post by yesenadam »

101001001001 wrote: post #39

For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest. Almost immediately after it was created, machine learning cropped up. Machine learning wasn’t new, it just never had the computational substrate it needed to produce the amazing results it’s become known for. Since ML was already established, it was low hanging fruit and it’s no surprise to see it catch fire so to speak. As time…

>I am being completely honest when I say that this is the sole reason why I have not decided to have children and when I implore anyone who reads this to not bring anyone into the world. The future will be very bleak for future generations.

If everyone listened to you, there would be no future generations. Have you thought this through? "Let's end the human race, because something bad might happen" doesn't exactly sound very solid reasoning.

p.s. What did your girlfriend/wife say about your decision?

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#48

Post by StellarTabi »

yesenadam wrote: post #47
101001001001 wrote: post #39

For the first time in history, there now exists a substrate upon which AGI can manifest. Almost immediately after it was created, machine learning cropped up. Machine learning wasn’t new, it just never had the computational substrate it needed to produce the amazing results it’s become known for. Since ML was already established, it was low hanging fruit and it’s no surprise to see it catch fire so to speak. As time…

>I am being completely honest when I say that this is the sole reason why I have not decided to have children and when I implore anyone who reads this to not bring anyone into the world. The future will be very bleak for future generations. If everyone listened to you, there would be no future generations. Have you thought this through? "Let's end the human race, because something bad might happen" doesn't exactly so…

Risk of idiocracy aside, there's enough humans and diversity in the way humans think that we can definitely rely on enough other humans to reproduce.

I'm somebody's girlfriend/wife and I do not want children (in general, and also because of future economic uncertainties) and I also don't like my existence being relagated to "someone who might want babies".

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#50

Post by mrfusion »

aiyodev wrote: post #10

Everyone's focused on driverless personal transportation. Driverless delivery trucks will come first. Basically Amazon lockers on wheels. Anything you want 24/7 delivered to the curb within minutes/hours of your order. Every retail store will suffer the fate of the bookstores. Millions will lose their jobs.

Actually if they built pickup centers right off of highway off ramps they could almost do it today.
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