Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#21

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 12:55 AM UTC

ilaksh wrote: post #6

It isn't exactly niche yet since it doesn't exist at this point but my speculation is that we will have AGI within that time frame. One reason I think that is because most of the core capabilities missing from AI systems are things that animals can do. Most of the difference with humans is a matter of degree. It's still a very challenging list of capabilities of course. The core requirements for AGI are fairly well u…

> The core requirements for AGI are fairly well understood at this point.

That seems wildly improbable to me. It seems far more likely that anyone who thinks they understand them are grossly underestimating what's involved.

Yeah, I know that I can't prove my position...

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#22

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 12:56 AM UTC

megadeth wrote: post #17

Bitcoin trades at six figures at some point in the next 10 years.

Counter-prediction: Bitcoin trades at three figures at some point in the next 10 years. (And not at six.)

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#23

Post by quickthrower2 » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 12:59 AM UTC

tropshop wrote: post #16

The pendulum swings back and HTML/CSS make a major come back as digital natives look to create without giving up data ownership.

Services like netlify reward that with free and very fast CDN hosting.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#24

Post by Zoo3y » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 1:00 AM UTC

kolikotime wrote: post #7

CRISPR and its various offsprings will grow in technological sophistication and their commercial applications. By the end of the 2020s it will morph into a pressing political issue in the West in terms of its implications for Human biology. Certain East Asian countries will be the trendsetters due to lax governmental regulations and societal acceptance.

It wouldn't affect living people that much. It has a lot more repercussions for newborns and future generations.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#25

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 1:01 AM UTC

I'll go the opposite way: What mainstream technology will have much less impact in the next 10 years? I'd guess social media.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#26

Post by quickthrower2 » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 1:01 AM UTC

Something I hope will exist is to make the web more like the desktop in spirit. What I mean is you’ll be able to easily grab an open source app and install it on “your web” without beings sucked into an expensive saas or becoming an ML data point aka ‘you are the product”

You just pay for storage and byo from Dropbox, google, whatever. With encryption you’d the be able to use services that are free, free and privacy focused.

I think JAM stack would work well with this and I’m thinking of making some POCs

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#27

Post by woofdogwoof » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 1:25 AM UTC

Thawing permafrost releases significantly more methane than expected and it supercharges the acceleration of climate change, and the earth itself supplants humans as the primary source of Greenhouse gases.

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#28

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 2:10 AM UTC

quickthrower2 wrote: post #26

Something I hope will exist is to make the web more like the desktop in spirit. What I mean is you’ll be able to easily grab an open source app and install it on “your web” without beings sucked into an expensive saas or becoming an ML data point aka ‘you are the product” You just pay for storage and byo from Dropbox, google, whatever. With encryption you’d the be able to use services that are free, free and privacy…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#29

Post by peteradio » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 2:36 AM UTC

aiyodev wrote: post #10

Everyone's focused on driverless personal transportation. Driverless delivery trucks will come first. Basically Amazon lockers on wheels. Anything you want 24/7 delivered to the curb within minutes/hours of your order. Every retail store will suffer the fate of the bookstores. Millions will lose their jobs.

Is it just gonna chuck your package out on your lawn?

Re: Ask HN: What is your prediction for next 10 years?

#30

Post by ilaksh » Wed, Feb 27, 2019, 2:45 AM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #21

ilaksh wrote: post #6

It isn't exactly niche yet since it doesn't exist at this point but my speculation is that we will have AGI within that time frame. One reason I think that is because most of the core capabilities missing from AI systems are things that animals can do. Most of the difference with humans is a matter of degree. It's still a very challenging list of capabilities of course. The core requirements for AGI are fairly well u…

> The core requirements for AGI are fairly well understood at this point. That seems wildly improbable to me. It seems far more likely that anyone who thinks they understand them are grossly underestimating what's involved. Yeah, I know that I can't prove my position...

Probably you misunderstood what I meant.

What I mean is we have lists of capabilities that AGI needs to have and know how it differs from narrow AI. For example: online continuous learning, perception, generalization, transferring skills between domains, etc. These aspects of the _what_ (rather than how) of AGI have been well researched.