Common misconception, but that graph does not explain the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's actually more like a linear curve, it's just a little flatter than the graph of y = x. The Dunning-Kruger effect is that the best people underestimate their relative abilities, and the worst overestimate. So, the worst 10% may estimate they are about average, while the top 10% might estimate they are in the top 20%. These are more r…
People try to shoehorn Dunning-Kruger into situations where it doesn't make much sense. Dunning-Kruger boils down to something a lot like "people tend to think other people are like themselves". So if you are low-skill at some task, you tend to think other people are low-skill, and as a result you see yourself as roughly average. If you are high-skill at some task you tend to think that other people are also high ski…
Dunning-Kruger effect is not a way of thinking or reasoning about yourself or others, but a cognitive bias. You need to be put into a quick decision making mode where you have to compare your skill to others for it to skew your assessment.