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China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

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Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#31

Post by arcticbull »

SCAQTony wrote: post #6

China is fast becoming a fascist capitalistic country with the government acting as CEO or a board member with a majority of stock: "...Hong Kong will set up financing and investment platform for the Belt and Road Initiative..." Well, what if they don't want too?

OBOR may be an overextension, or it may not, it's definitely too early to say. It is definitely ambitious -- and a big risk. More broadly, China just opened its first overseas base (ever, but specifically in Djibouti [1]) so the phase of growth and expansion happening right now is about more than just OBOR. Don't write them off just yet.

What if Hong Kong doesn't want to set up a financing platform for OBOR? I don't understand. You don't think Beijing can find a bank like HSBC, Standard Chartered or Bank of China (Hong Kong) to originate/administer the loans? For now at least, HK remains a rule-of-law jurisdiction with all the freedoms you enjoy. They do walk a narrow path, and upsetting Beijing isn't top of their to-do list.

What do you mean "becoming a fascist capitalistic country"? Have you not been following along after the cultural revolution? :)

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/china-opens-overseas-...

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#32

Post by entity345 »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #30
entity345 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, of course as the mainland develops Hongkong loses its relative weight. This was expected and unavoidable. Let's not forget that Hongkong was boosted in the first place by people and companies fleeing the communists, but the historical hub was Shanghai. This does not change anything to my previous comment, though. > It's not like the UK... I think the West must understand that colonial times are over. This is a…

So reneging on an international treaty is OK now? Doesn't inspire confidence that a transition won't make a difference. It will be a Chinese internal issue after the expiry of the agreed period in 2047.

Send the gunboats loaded with opium, then.

The bad faith and thin-veiled racism is really shocking on every topic involving China.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#33

Post by emptyfile »

voidreaper wrote: post #12

Here's an interactive map of the growing Pearl River Delta megalopolis: https://geoshen.com/posts/the-pearl-river-delta-megalopolis

>The PRD megalopolis is an urban area of gargantuan proportions with few like it in existance.

>It's home to 65 million people, a population similar to that of the United Kingdom.

>It covers an area around 55,000 km^2, about the size of the country of Croatia.

>The GDP of the PRD megalopolis clocks in at over $1.2 trillion, about the same as Mexico.

Well damn, I live in Croatia, can't even make a mental image of that amount of people. For comparison its the same area size as New York state with over 3x the population.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#34

Post by arcticbull »

entity345 wrote: post #29
arcticbull wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devils advocate, Hong Kong has become comparatively much less valuable to Beijing over the years. It represented 27% of all of China's GDP in 1993, and today it's less than 3%. [1] Beijing has become more forceful in its treatment of HK of late, with for instance, staffing the high-speed rail station in Kowloon with China Police (forbidden under basic law). I think what happens next is unclear. Is it still wo…

Well, of course as the mainland develops Hongkong loses its relative weight. This was expected and unavoidable. Let's not forget that Hongkong was boosted in the first place by people and companies fleeing the communists, but the historical hub was Shanghai. This does not change anything to my previous comment, though. > It's not like the UK... I think the West must understand that colonial times are over. This is a…

Maybe there's some misunderstanding.

The top-level comment was about the introduction of uncertainty transitioning (early) from the SAR model to a provincial model. I took your reply as saying "nothing's going to change for investors because Beijing isn't stupid" -- I agree, Beijing is far from stupid. I'm actually agreeing with you in another comment where I point out 'uncertainty around the handover' has been something investors have lived with for a generation, and this won't change any time soon.

I would also say in spite of the fact there's an international referee looking over this, they're totally unable to do anything, so for better or worse, it is effectively an internal matter now.

IMO, however, a better model of Hong Kong is that it remains a colony as it has (almost) always been, what changed in 1997 is whose colony.

My devils advocate comment was to say that as the UK is totally powerless (and much of the rest of the international community with it) and Beijing's more forceful stance on the SARs of late, that they may just cut off the SAR model entirely. Who's going to stop them? As you say, it's an internal matter.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#35

Post by [deleted] »

entity345 wrote: post #32
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So reneging on an international treaty is OK now? Doesn't inspire confidence that a transition won't make a difference. It will be a Chinese internal issue after the expiry of the agreed period in 2047.

Send the gunboats loaded with opium, then. The bad faith and thin-veiled racism is really shocking on every topic involving China.

[deleted]

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#36

Post by daliusd »

emptyfile wrote: post #33
voidreaper wrote: post #12

Here's an interactive map of the growing Pearl River Delta megalopolis: https://geoshen.com/posts/the-pearl-river-delta-megalopolis

>The PRD megalopolis is an urban area of gargantuan proportions with few like it in existance. >It's home to 65 million people, a population similar to that of the United Kingdom. >It covers an area around 55,000 km^2, about the size of the country of Croatia. >The GDP of the PRD megalopolis clocks in at over $1.2 trillion, about the same as Mexico. Well damn, I live in Croatia, can't even make a mental image of that…

And Croatia's town (like Split) leaves impression like a really crowded place. At least for me as person from North Europe country.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#37

Post by NeedMoreTea »

entity345 wrote: post #32
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So reneging on an international treaty is OK now? Doesn't inspire confidence that a transition won't make a difference. It will be a Chinese internal issue after the expiry of the agreed period in 2047.

Send the gunboats loaded with opium, then. The bad faith and thin-veiled racism is really shocking on every topic involving China.

The Sino-British Joint Declaration declared Hong Kong's way of life would be left alone until 2047. Signed by both leaders on behalf of their governments, and lodged with the UN.

China treating it as void does not change that.

Nothing racist about making that observation.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#38

Post by Waterluvian »

kabouseng wrote: post #18
esturk wrote: post #3

I wonder if the mainland will ever force either of the 2 ex-colonies to convert into using the "right hand road" orientation? That would be an interesting experiment.

As long as they do it incrementally it should be fine. For the first week only transition motorcycles to drive on the other side, then the week after the cars, then a week later transition the trucks and heavy vehicles to the other side...

That surely is an optimal way to transition them all to the Other Side, and fast.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#39

Post by robjan »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #4

Scary from an investment perspective. Imagine having property rights under Hong Kong law transitioned to the lawlessness of Beijing.

Our property is the most expensive in the world so it's clearly not bothering investors yet.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#40

Post by NeedMoreTea »

arcticbull wrote: post #34
entity345 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, of course as the mainland develops Hongkong loses its relative weight. This was expected and unavoidable. Let's not forget that Hongkong was boosted in the first place by people and companies fleeing the communists, but the historical hub was Shanghai. This does not change anything to my previous comment, though. > It's not like the UK... I think the West must understand that colonial times are over. This is a…

Maybe there's some misunderstanding. The top-level comment was about the introduction of uncertainty transitioning (early) from the SAR model to a provincial model. I took your reply as saying "nothing's going to change for investors because Beijing isn't stupid" -- I agree, Beijing is far from stupid. I'm actually agreeing with you in another comment where I point out 'uncertainty around the handover' has been somet…

Sounds like an accurate summary to me. Whatever China chooses to do with Hong Kong, the UK and others have little influence. As you say the Foreign Office can send a memo. Chris Patten may have been deeply disappointed at London hadn't objected more, but that would have realistically changed nothing.

So practically speaking it effectively is internal. Whatever that document might say.

The clearest mistake, to my mind, of the whole handover was Thatcher being unwilling to grant passports for all.

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