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China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

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21–30 of 132 posts

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#21
post #3

I wonder if the mainland will ever force either of the 2 ex-colonies to convert into using the "right hand road" orientation? That would be an interesting experiment.

As long as they do it incrementally it should be fine. For the first week only transition motorcycles to drive on the other side, then the week after the cars, then a week later transition the trucks and heavy vehicles to the other side...

There is no better way to deliver humour than with a straight face. Well done, sir!

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#23
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they want to do that? I would bet lots of people will revolt, forcing them to drive on the wrong side of the road.

Driving rates are pretty low in HK and Macau because the cost of car ownership is so high (namely, the cost of a parking space) and public transit/taxis are so good. So I don’t think you’d get much pushback from actual drivers.

Despite this, the roads are an overcrowded nightmare (Hong Kong specifically, haven't driven in Macau) where no one really follows the existing rules terribly well. I have no doubt what so ever such a move would result in chaos and fatalities.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#25

Scary from an investment perspective. Imagine having property rights under Hong Kong law transitioned to the lawlessness of Beijing.

This has been true going all the way back to before the handover was announced. Imagine having property rights under the United Kingdom and no clear transition plan in the mid 90s? This has been the reality in Hong Kong for a generation. I'm very curious to see how this evolves as we move forward.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#26

Scary from an investment perspective. Imagine having property rights under Hong Kong law transitioned to the lawlessness of Beijing.

Won't make any difference. They are not stupid.

To play devils advocate, Hong Kong has become comparatively much less valuable to Beijing over the years. It represented 27% of all of China's GDP in 1993, and today it's less than 3%. [1] Beijing has become more forceful in its treatment of HK of late, with for instance, staffing the high-speed rail station in Kowloon with China Police (forbidden under basic law). I think what happens next is unclear. Is it still worth the trouble?

It's not like the UK (which is, to date, responsible for enforcing the terms of the handover) can do anything more than write a strongly worded memo to Beijing. Like they did when those booksellers disappeared [2] or when the Chinese billionaire living in the Four Seasons on the island 'returned to seek medical treatment on the mainland' [3].

[1] http://www.ejinsight.com/20170609-hk-versus-china-gdp-a-sobe...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/magazine/the-case-of-hong...

[3] https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/02/01/chinese-billionaire-ab...

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#27
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The opposite seems to be true right now. China's relations with the West are a bit strained at the moment.

The relationship looks tense, but Chinese leadership seems to feel that they have everything under control; like this particular kerfuffle is an unavoidable step on their march toward becoming a superpower. I would be comfortable if I were seeing the world that way, too.

Indeed, Beijing's leadership tends to take a very long term view of growth plans. This lines up with my mental model of how they operate.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#28
post #7
post #6

China is fast becoming a fascist capitalistic country with the government acting as CEO or a board member with a majority of stock: "...Hong Kong will set up financing and investment platform for the Belt and Road Initiative..." Well, what if they don't want too?

It seems China proper has over-extended itself with the BRI and is going to use Hong Kong resources now... The rest of the objectives just seem contrived.

What makes the BRI an over-extension? How does it compare to the economic and military extension of the other super-power?

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won't make any difference. They are not stupid.

To play devils advocate, Hong Kong has become comparatively much less valuable to Beijing over the years. It represented 27% of all of China's GDP in 1993, and today it's less than 3%. [1] Beijing has become more forceful in its treatment of HK of late, with for instance, staffing the high-speed rail station in Kowloon with China Police (forbidden under basic law). I think what happens next is unclear. Is it still wo…

Well, of course as the mainland develops Hongkong loses its relative weight. This was expected and unavoidable. Let's not forget that Hongkong was boosted in the first place by people and companies fleeing the communists, but the historical hub was Shanghai.

This does not change anything to my previous comment, though.

> It's not like the UK...

I think the West must understand that colonial times are over. This is a Chinese internal issue.

Re: China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devils advocate, Hong Kong has become comparatively much less valuable to Beijing over the years. It represented 27% of all of China's GDP in 1993, and today it's less than 3%. [1] Beijing has become more forceful in its treatment of HK of late, with for instance, staffing the high-speed rail station in Kowloon with China Police (forbidden under basic law). I think what happens next is unclear. Is it still wo…

Well, of course as the mainland develops Hongkong loses its relative weight. This was expected and unavoidable. Let's not forget that Hongkong was boosted in the first place by people and companies fleeing the communists, but the historical hub was Shanghai. This does not change anything to my previous comment, though. > It's not like the UK... I think the West must understand that colonial times are over. This is a…

So reneging on an international treaty is OK now? Doesn't inspire confidence that a transition won't make a difference.

It will be a Chinese internal issue after the expiry of the agreed period in 2047.

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