Live data from Hacker News

AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

bbc.co.uk

51–60 of 119 posts

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#51
post #6

Fails to touch on the perverse incentives in academia, "publish or perish" etc. Torturing a dataset to find a p value that a journal will like (or equivalent stat measure) is better for your career than not publishing a paper that will be discredited in time. You have no incentive at all to decide "my results are unconvincing at this point, I'm not going to submit them" and every reason to write them up as a useful c…

We need to find resources to fund "Failures in Science" journals that exclusively seek to publish interesting research that went nowhere. Personally I'd find these far more interesting to study. "Here's some background. Here's a pretty logical, plausible hypothesis we came up with and how, here's our experiment, here's our results, here's our thoughts as to why we were wildly wrong."

We have that. People don't use it.

PLOS e.g. specifically stated multiple times that they'll publish what meets their quality standards regardless of a positive or negative outcome.

The problem is: Even if you publish failed research it won't get cited as much. And people still use citation metrics to evaluate "quality" of science.

Just having journals that publish your "failed" research is a good start, but it's not changing the incentive structure.

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#52
post #46
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily the academic system will typically weed out unethical behaviour (e.g. faking results).

If you think the current process does, you either are in a very good environment or are plainly lying to yourself. I could just add some bits here and there, get excellent results and publish. Probably nobody will notice as it won't be a "big issue" and seems all fine with existing experimental data.

[deleted]

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#53
post #49
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think the current process does, you either are in a very good environment or are plainly lying to yourself. I could just add some bits here and there, get excellent results and publish. Probably nobody will notice as it won't be a "big issue" and seems all fine with existing experimental data.

If you've faked your data to get these results then it could mean the end of your career, hence must be a very uncommon practice. This is a different from cherrypicking data, or putting a positive spin on your findings. But again, it's expected now that data and code are open, so you wont get away with much these days in high-impact conferences/journals.

Not talking about high impact journals (where the majority of papers does not end up, when everyone is expected to publish twice a year...). Also I think cherrypicking your ML training data to achieve a certain result is akin to faking results?! And if you think that all data and code are open today you should certainly take a better look around you. Half of our lab is running on proprietary (simulation) software, good luck with auditing the code there (and evaluating the data because most of the people don't really document there workflow...). And both these examples take/took place on upper-mid-tiere european universities which consistently rank in the global upper 100/european upper 20-citation rankings...

Besides that, most of the people do a PhD for getting better paid jobs, not academic tenure (where such things could backfire).

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#54
post #21

Curious (possibly naive) question: isn't there a fundamental difference between the goals behind creating models with ML vs the "old-fashioned" way? That is, in modern ML applications, you're creating a model with dozens/hundreds of potential variables, without a hypothesis of how they relate or contribute to the target (other than that they might, hence your including them in the modeling process). You're using the…

> By contrast, traditionally in science you're coming in with a hypothesis ahead of time about what variables predict what target.

That is an idealistic view of what science should be, it's not what happens in the real world. HARKing ("Hypothetizing after the results are known") was a thing before ML was cool. But ML is amplifying that, it's a more effective tool to perform bad science.

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#55
post #6

Fails to touch on the perverse incentives in academia, "publish or perish" etc. Torturing a dataset to find a p value that a journal will like (or equivalent stat measure) is better for your career than not publishing a paper that will be discredited in time. You have no incentive at all to decide "my results are unconvincing at this point, I'm not going to submit them" and every reason to write them up as a useful c…

Some days ago there was a post here on HN about a post doc who failed to get tenure. And every other comment was like: “What did he expect, he had much less than the usual two papers a year.” So it seems that even here on HN, the mindset of quantity over quality still persists.

that author’s problem was that they had been a postdoc for 23 years. That duration alone raises fatal red flags.

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#56
post #50
post #4

Is machine learning really to blame for the reproducibility crisis? I'm not in academia, but it seemed to me that the problem was entirely present without machine learning being involed. For example, Amgen reporting that of landmark cancer papers they reviewed, 47 of the 53 could not be replicated [1]. I would have assumed that most of them didn't involve 'machine learning' [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-scie…

The problem was there before, but there are reasons why Machine Learning is amplifying bad practices. In the past people were manually fishing for results in available datasets. Now they have algorithms to do it for them. In medicine a popular way to use ML is to improve diagnosis. Now there's already a problem in medicine that the benefits of early diagnosis are overrated and the downsides (overtreatment etc.) usual…

Medicine may be better than ML but there’s not much in the difference.

> COMPare: Qualitative analysis of researchers’ responses to critical correspondence on a cohort of 58 misreported trials

> Background

> Discrepancies between pre-specified and reported outcomes are an important and prevalent source of bias in clinical trials. COMPare (Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Outcome Monitoring Project) monitored all trials in five leading journals for correct outcome reporting, submitted correction letters on all misreported trials in real time, and then monitored responses from editors and trialists. From the trialists’ responses, we aimed to answer two related questions. First, what can trialists’ responses to corrections on their own misreported trials tell us about trialists’ knowledge of correct outcome reporting? Second, what can a cohort of responses to a standardised correction letter tell us about how researchers respond to systematic critical post-publication peer review?

> Results

> Trialists frequently expressed views that contradicted the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) guidelines or made inaccurate statements about correct outcome reporting. Common themes were: stating that pre-specification after trial commencement is acceptable; incorrect statements about registries; incorrect statements around the handling of multiple time points; and failure to recognise the need to report changes to pre-specified outcomes in the trial report. We identified additional themes in the approaches taken by researchers when responding to critical correspondence, including the following: ad hominem criticism; arguing that trialists should be trusted, rather than follow guidelines for trial reporting; appealing to the existence of a novel category of outcomes whose results need not necessarily be reported; incorrect statements by researchers about their own paper; and statements undermining transparency infrastructure, such as trial registers.

https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13...

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#57
post #21

Curious (possibly naive) question: isn't there a fundamental difference between the goals behind creating models with ML vs the "old-fashioned" way? That is, in modern ML applications, you're creating a model with dozens/hundreds of potential variables, without a hypothesis of how they relate or contribute to the target (other than that they might, hence your including them in the modeling process). You're using the…

I would guess both you and author of the article have in mind something like gene expression[GE] in bioinformatics. Thousands of markers, but only hundreds of examples, and the researchers are using some automated feature selection approach[LB] to pick genes that predict some disease.

[GE]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_learning_in_bioinforma...

[LB]: https://www.quora.com/How-is-Lasso-method-used-in-bioinforma...

Obviously if this were done sloppily it would be a huge problem and could produce a ton of false positives. But that's not actually what happens. The idea that ML practitioners just fit crazy complicated models to data and blindly believe whatever the model fits seems to be a common stereotype but is completely inaccurate. We are acutely aware that powerful models can overfit all to easily and spend perhaps the majority of our time understanding and fighting this exact phenomena. Because we tend to work with models for which few closed-form analytic theorems exist, we tend to do this empirically but no less rigorously. In fact, we tend to be more scientific and rely on fewer assumptions than classical statistics.

The dominant paradigm is empirical risk minimization, sometimes called structural risk minimization[SRM], especially when complexity is being penalized. The idea is to acknowledge that models are always fit to one particular sample from the population but that the goal is to generalize to the full population. We can never truly evaluate a model on a whole population, but we can form an empirical estimate for how well our model will do by taking a new sample from the population (not used for fitting/training) and evaluating model performance on this new sample. Computational learning theories such as VC Theory[VC] and Probably Approximately Correct Learning[PAC] provide theorems that give bounds on how tight these empirical bounds are. For example, VC Theory and Hoeffding's Inequality[HI] can give us an upper bound on how large the gap between "true" performance and this empirical estimate is for a binary classifier in terms of the number of observations used to measure performance and the "VC Dimension" (roughly the number of parameters) of the model.

A typical SRM workflow would be to divide a data set up into "training," "validation," and "test" sets, fit a set of candidate models to the training set, estimate their performance from the validation set, select the best based on validation set performance[MS], then evaluate the final model performance from the test set. This procedure can be used on arbitrary models to demonstrate the validity of fit models. For example, a model which is just randomly picking 5 genes based on noise in the training set is extremely unlikely to perform better than chance on the final test set.

[SRM]: http://www.svms.org/srm/

[VC]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vapnik%E2%80%93Chervonenkis_th...

[PAC]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probably_approximately_correct...

[HI]: https://people.cs.umass.edu/~domke/courses/sml2010/10theory....

[MS]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_selection

Not every machine learning practitioner is familiar with VC Theory or PAC, but almost everyone uses the practical tools[CV] and language[BV] that arose from SRM. If you're following Andrew Ng's or Max Kuhn's advice[NG][MK] on "best practices" you are in fact benefiting from VC Theory although you may never have heard of it.

[VC]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-validation_(statistics)

[BV]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias%E2%80%93variance_tradeoff

[NG]: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLA89DCFA6ADACE599

[MK]: http://appliedpredictivemodeling.com/

So that's my answer to the question of validity: ML researchers use different techniques, but their techniques have equally good theoretical foundations but make very few assumptions and are very robust in practice. If researchers aren't using these techniques, or abusing them, it's not because ML is unsatisfactory or broken, but because of the same perverse incentives we see everywhere in academia.

There's another criticism floating around that ML models are "black boxes", useful only for prediction and totally opaque. This is only true because non-linear things are harder to understand, and to the extent to which it is true, it is equally true of classical models. A linear model with lots of quadratic and interaction terms, or a model on stratified bands, or a hierarchical model, can be just as hard to interpret. A properly regularized ML model only fits a crazy non-linear boundary when the data themselves require it. A classical model fit to the same data will either have to exhibit the same non-linearity or will be badly wrong. A lot of researcher papers are wrong because someone fit a straight line to curved data!

I also think the "total opaque black box" meme is overstated. We can often understand even very complex models to some degree with a little effort. A basic technique is to run k-means with high k, say, 100, to select a number of "representative" examples from your training set and look at the model's predictions for each. It's also incredibly instructive just to look at a sample of 100 examples the model got wrong. One way to understand a non-linear response surface is by focusing in on different regions where the behavior is locally linear and trying perturbations[LIME]. There are also ML models which do fit easy to understand models[MARS]. It's also usually possible to visualize the low level features[DFV].

[LIME]: https://www.oreilly.com/learning/introduction-to-local-inter...

[MARS]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_adaptive_regressi...

[DFV]: https://distill.pub/2017/feature-visualization/

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#58
post #6

Fails to touch on the perverse incentives in academia, "publish or perish" etc. Torturing a dataset to find a p value that a journal will like (or equivalent stat measure) is better for your career than not publishing a paper that will be discredited in time. You have no incentive at all to decide "my results are unconvincing at this point, I'm not going to submit them" and every reason to write them up as a useful c…

We need to find resources to fund "Failures in Science" journals that exclusively seek to publish interesting research that went nowhere. Personally I'd find these far more interesting to study. "Here's some background. Here's a pretty logical, plausible hypothesis we came up with and how, here's our experiment, here's our results, here's our thoughts as to why we were wildly wrong."

The FADS workshop[0] at VLDB was a nice attempt at this although I think the work ended up focusing on known historical failures as opposed to failed work that was not otherwise published.

[0] https://fads.ws/

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#59
post #6

Fails to touch on the perverse incentives in academia, "publish or perish" etc. Torturing a dataset to find a p value that a journal will like (or equivalent stat measure) is better for your career than not publishing a paper that will be discredited in time. You have no incentive at all to decide "my results are unconvincing at this point, I'm not going to submit them" and every reason to write them up as a useful c…

This is the real issue. Getting data is always expensive in any field so it's much easier to analyse data that already exists as you don't need a large grant application. Furthermore, I think the use of certain ML techniques may be akin to resume-driven development particularly for PhD students given that the career prospects in Data Science in industry (and using the HR buzzwords like AI, ML, Deep Learning etc.) are…

I don't blame the students too much. If you get into a PhD program, it's very hard to change fields or even specialties without starting over. A simpler tactic is to weave a field of interest into your existing research project, then market yourself in that field when you graduate.

I did the same thing as a physics student, but with electronics and programming, which furnished me with a marketable resume.

Re: AAAS: Machine learning 'causing science crisis'

#60
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem was there before, but there are reasons why Machine Learning is amplifying bad practices. In the past people were manually fishing for results in available datasets. Now they have algorithms to do it for them. In medicine a popular way to use ML is to improve diagnosis. Now there's already a problem in medicine that the benefits of early diagnosis are overrated and the downsides (overtreatment etc.) usual…

Medicine may be better than ML but there’s not much in the difference. > COMPare: Qualitative analysis of researchers’ responses to critical correspondence on a cohort of 58 misreported trials > Background > Discrepancies between pre-specified and reported outcomes are an important and prevalent source of bias in clinical trials. COMPare (Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Outcome Monitoring Project) monitored all tr…

I am just in the process of digging into this paper and covering it in an article, so I'm quite familiar with it.

But as bad as this is: What the COMPare project is doing here is documenting the flaws of a process to counter bad scientific practice. The reality in most fields (including pretty much all of CS and ML) is that no such process exists at all, because noone even tries to fix these issues.

So you have medicine where people try to fix these issues (and are - admittedly - not very good at it) versus other fields that don't even try.

Post reply on HN