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Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

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Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#131

Post by brockwhittaker »

aviv wrote: post #126
justfor1comment wrote: post #80

Uber is getting more expensive with time as they try to consolidate losses. For my commute to work nowadays Express Pool costs the same as UberX did a year ago. And of course express pool includes overtly long sight seeing detours and dangerous pick up/drop off points. This is getting prohibitively expensive and I plan to switch to an electric scooter + public transit in a few months.

If a couple dollar difference is that big of a deal, you need to focus your effort on making more money, not switching to a cheaper alternative. The problem is not Uber raising prices, it's you wasting time commuting to the wrong job. I mean this in a good way, not trying to be rude.

I would normally agree but the difference could be around $5 each way for 250 work days a year. A few thousand dollars a year is quite a lot.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#132

Post by clairity »

sjjshvuiajhz wrote: post #45
clairity wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you ever seen your neighbor get dragged running and hanging out of the passenger side window by an angry uber driver? have you had someone slap you who is not homeless? i have. i get that you want to equate homeless folks on transit with violence but you did a really bad job of it.

I’m just describing an event that happened to me. There are a lot of problems with Uber, but one thing it’s not is the cheapest and most convenient climate-controlled shelter for the city’s destitute mentally ill.

> "...it’s not is the cheapest and most convenient climate-controlled shelter for the city’s destitute mentally ill."

i can appreciate this point, but you're still insinuating that destitute people are bad, rather than realizing the complexity of the human condition as embodied in that other living being.

why not try to find and express some empathy, or even just some sympathy, for these folks? is there any gain for you to further put them down this way? are you so afraid of the homeless that you need to make sure random people on the internet don't associate an anonymized you with them?

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#133

Post by btilly »

bunderbunder wrote: post #121
btilly wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Warren Buffett's advice on this is simple. If he doesn't understand it, he doesn't invest. No matter what the rest of the world thinks. He famously missed the dot com boom. And in the middle of it, gave a private speech about exactly why, about how few of those companies were likely to be around in a few years even if the internet were exactly as successful as hoped for. He was widely derided as being behind the time…

And it's not like he just flat out didn't invest all the money he wasn't putting into Geocities and Lycos. He was just putting it into other things, mostly stuff that was less the hot new thing, and therefore less in demand, and therefore more favorably priced. I don't think he regrets his conservatism. From 1990 through now, BRK.A is up 4,200%, while the NASDAQ composite is up only 1,500%.

No, he doesn't.

But as https://alphaarchitect.com/2016/10/10/value-investing-got-cr... points out, it looked rather different when Berkshire lost 44% while the NASDAQ gained 145%. Buffett stood by the strength of his reasoning. But the rest of the world didn't.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#134

Post by aviv »

brockwhittaker wrote: post #131
aviv wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a couple dollar difference is that big of a deal, you need to focus your effort on making more money, not switching to a cheaper alternative. The problem is not Uber raising prices, it's you wasting time commuting to the wrong job. I mean this in a good way, not trying to be rude.

I would normally agree but the difference could be around $5 each way for 250 work days a year. A few thousand dollars a year is quite a lot.

If $5 each way is a lot of money, it's a sign you are not making enough money. Optimizing life to save that $5 increase is exactly the mindset that keeps people living paycheck to paycheck. Increase the top line, expenses don't matter if you focus your effort on making more money.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#135

Post by macintux »

ham_sandwich wrote: post #109
warp_factor wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber has spent a lot of money on Self Driving car (remember the Otto fiasco ?) and is hypothetically the least advanced of them all!

Yes, from the looks of it, they are well behind in self-driving tech. If it’s inevitable that self-driving will bankrupt them, why would anyone invest in them at all? The two scenarios I can see are 1). That their ride-matching platform will still play a role in a self-driving world. However, I think a worst case for Uber is Waymo gets there first and then Google can almost trivially replace Uber with their own match…

There's always the possibility of 3) No one achieves sustainable self-driving in the short to medium term.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#136

Post by bunderbunder »

computerex wrote: post #96
amoitnga wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not an investor, no experience, just want to voice my 2c. - facebook and google sure, but how many are there of those who didn't make it? - sounds like a fear of missing out. - Buffet didn't invest in Microsoft because he didn't "get it". His idea, I believe, is: "it's ok to pass on investments". He's looking for "sure things". Personally, I think the entire thing is ridiculous. 120B ? for what? 2 of my friends a…

Don't forget that Uber is in the autonomous driving business. They burnt through cash to get market share, because when self driving becomes a thing, they'll have a huge swing in margins/profits as self driving will get rid of their greatest expense (human drivers).

Which self-driving car business would you bet on: One that's sinking most its capital into developing its self-driving technology, or one that's sinking most its capital into subsidizing drivers' incomes, and needs to do so simply to stay alive?

If Uber really, really believed that self driving was such a sure thing for them, their optimal strategy would be to wind down the rideshare business, the food delivery business, and all its other businesses that aren't self driving, so that it could redirect its mountains of capital toward developing self driving even sooner. Because as soon as cars that really can operate fully autonomously hit the scene, it's not going to matter who was incumbent in the rideshare space or how dominant they are. The company with the self driving cars will take over just about as quickly as they can manufacture new cars.

The fact that they're not playing it this way implies that they're not so confident that they're well positioned to be first past the post with self-driving cars. Which means we probably shouldn't be, either.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#137

Post by joshe »

clairity wrote: post #48
joshe wrote: post #26

What is Uber's long term moat/pricing power? To compete in a local market you just need to sign up 5000 or so drivers. At a $5 signup bonus that costs like $25,000. You can just be the third app, most drivers already swap between Lyft/Uber. You could even form a drivers cooperative and just give all the charges to drivers (like farmers do). Regulatory capture seems like the only real route to sustainable profits with…

> "...you just need to sign up 5000 or so drivers. At a $5 signup bonus that costs like $25,000." that's nowhere near the cost of acquisition for a driver. having worked on driver acquisition, i can tell you it's hundreds of dollars, not $5.

Sure, but neither have a guaranteed cash signup bonus. They have guaranteed first month earnings and bonuses per ride.

Uber trying to raise it's fees is an invitation for someone else to jump in with lower fees and compete. You don't need any kind of national reputation, taxi companies never did. You can just compete city by city.

That is lack of pricing power.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#138

Post by megaremote »

brockwhittaker wrote: post #131
aviv wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a couple dollar difference is that big of a deal, you need to focus your effort on making more money, not switching to a cheaper alternative. The problem is not Uber raising prices, it's you wasting time commuting to the wrong job. I mean this in a good way, not trying to be rude.

I would normally agree but the difference could be around $5 each way for 250 work days a year. A few thousand dollars a year is quite a lot.

If you are regularly commuting via Uber you are doing a lot of things wrong.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#139

Post by BillionaireBear »

ghaff wrote: post #10
mark_l_watson wrote: post #3

I wonder how much effect it would have on sales volume if ride prices were adjusted upwards to the break-even point? They must know what they are doing but it almost always seems counterintuitive to me to sell below cost over a long time period. I like Uber as a service but I don’t really care how they do, except that a friend works at their AI lab.

It seems odd to me as well. I don’t use these services a lot but when I do it’s almist always because they’re better than dealing with a taxi. Rarely do I choose them on the basis of price.

For the most part, a taxi is only better when I'm at either an airport or a hotel. Otherwise, I far prefer Uber/Lyft because it's on-demand, no cash needed and don't have to explain my route or destination.

Re: Uber Revenue Growth Slows, Losses Persist as 2019 IPO Draws Near

#140

Post by ghaff »

aviv wrote: post #134
brockwhittaker wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would normally agree but the difference could be around $5 each way for 250 work days a year. A few thousand dollars a year is quite a lot.

If $5 each way is a lot of money, it's a sign you are not making enough money. Optimizing life to save that $5 increase is exactly the mindset that keeps people living paycheck to paycheck. Increase the top line, expenses don't matter if you focus your effort on making more money.

Seriously? I’d argue that kicking a $5 per day Starbucks habit is hardly a sign that you need to make a career change. It seems a lot closer to plugging a mindless money leak if it’s just something you do by default.
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