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The Nuclear Option

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161–170 of 187 posts

Re: The Nuclear Option

#161
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that nuclear is unproven, it's that _renewables at this point are proven_. You can build huge (or tiny! it's super scalable) fleets of renewable energy sources pretty economically, with a ~0% chance of making surrounding areas uninhabitable for 20 years if there's a failure. Yeah sure a truckload of uranium goes a long way but building the plants is really hard even when you look past the regulatory issues.

Someone said roughly the same thing in another thread https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19167849 But as far as I know there is no proven large-scale storage system, which is a criticla part of renewables. The other commenter mentioned building batteries and then it is just a matter of scale which seems like an over-simplification to me but I cannot find much useful info on it. Personally I would love a 100% renewa…

There are several solutions to supply-demand matching and buffering which either do or should work.

A key is to think of this in terms of matching supply and demand rather than simply as storage. We've adapted over the course of a century or so to a regime of dispatchable supply energy, with little use of dispatchable demand. There's also been little consideration of major behavioural, social, economic, and land-use changes which will be prompted by changes to the energy regime. Much the same way as major impacts of internal combustion engines on land-use, construction, transport, and trade were almost wholly unanticipated, most discussion today is framed in terms of "how do we sustain present behaviours and activities under a novel energy regime" (if not quite so explicitly). The short answer is: you don't.

Automobiles, rail, air transport, and powered shipping gave rise to suburban sprawl, transcontinental trade networks, same-day globe-spanning travel and light cargo, and transoceanic shipping centres, along with tremendous centralisation of activities in zones of maximum productivity (often, yes, through massive externalised costs). Little of those impacts was foreseen in the popular or academic literature of a century (or even half-century) ago.

There's much of economics that's badly broken, but a part that's useful is the notion that behaviours do change tremendously in the face of changes to real and expressed costs. The Jevons Paradox cuts both ways: increased efficiency increases total use, whilst increased costs will decrease total use of some resource or factor. (Increasing efficiency is equivalent to saying "decreasing cost".)

Addressing energy specifically:

Expect to see far more dispatchable load, effectively, "making hay whilst the sun shines". High-load, but bufferable uses such as thermal heating (water, space, thermal storage), electrically-driven refinement (aluminium smelting, electric arc furnaces), reverse osmosis desalination, and the like, can if not "store electricity", then cache useful activity whilst supplies are abundant. Smaller industrial, commercial, residential, and possibly transport loads may also see time-shifting on a similar basis.

For direct storage, pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage (CAES), grid-scale batteries (an area with frustratingly slow development, though some promise, especially with cheap-and-abundant if not highly-efficient electrolytes), are presently proven. There are a number of schemes which don't work particularly well -- flywheel storage doesn't seem useful for much besides replicating today's "spinning reserve", nor do supercapacitors look as if they'll offer much beyond grid-scale power conditioning.

Two areas which offer tremendous promise and fairly high probability of success are grid-scale thermal energy storage with regeneration and electrically-based fuel synthesis appear at least on a back-of-the-envelope basis to provide national-scale grid-level storage capacity good for weeks (thermal) to millennia (fuel synthesis). The round-trip efficiencies are not great, but the simplicity, safety, and in the case of fuel synthesis, exceedingly long-duration storage, transportability, and utility of the derived medium are huge advantages.

Thermal energy electrical storage is mostly used now in solar thermal generation plants, but could be utilised in other forms. Large insulated tanks of molten salt driving traditional steam turbine generation could offer weeks worth of grid storage for the US in a total storage capacity roughly of the magnitude of extant oil transport storage facilities in Oklahoma.

Synthetic fuel generation, first suggested for nuclear power at Brookhaven National Laboratory in the 1960s and researched for over 50 years at Brookhaven, M.I.T., and the US Naval Research Laboratory, has yet to be proven at national scale, but the basic chemistry works, it's similar to coal-to-oil processes used by South Africa and Germany since World War II, produces direct analogues to current fossil fuels (methane through bunker oil) but is carbon-neutral as the carbon itself is sourced from current biosphere reserves, principally seawater.

Otherwise: expect to see tremendous differences in how energy is used, in construction based around heating and cooling loads, lighting, transport, and other processes.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#162
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And pumping water uphill is a regional solution that requires specific regional geography, to me that does not class as "scalable". I should be more specific in that to me "scalable" is a solution that can be deployed anywhere without require specific regional properties. Maybe you think this is unneeded and that a lot of region specific solutions can cover the storage requirements. However another posted did point o…

Nuclear power plants are also regional solutions that requires specific geography....

Nuke plant siting is vastly less constrained than pumped hydro facilities.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#163
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And pumping water uphill is a regional solution that requires specific regional geography, to me that does not class as "scalable". I should be more specific in that to me "scalable" is a solution that can be deployed anywhere without require specific regional properties. Maybe you think this is unneeded and that a lot of region specific solutions can cover the storage requirements. However another posted did point o…

It doesn't require specific geography. You can create entirely artificial pump systems isolated from any natural water. These are called closed loop systems. You could create an closed loop pumped hydroeletric system in the middle of the Sahara if so desired. Incidentally you could power the entire world with a solar area taking up a single digit percent of the Sahara. These haven't been actively developed in the pas…

The Sahara-global-solar-facility scale starts bumping up a lot when you factor in realities.

PV efficiency, spacing factors, panel replacement cycles, storage requirements, the fact that we're looking at total energy use and not just electricity, first-world rather than third-world per-capita use rates (presuming we're not going to freeze the entire world at its present state of energy consumption), and projected population growth.

You can still provide most or all the hypothetical demand from the Sahara, but you're well above 1% land use. I've sketched this out elsewhere previously, don't have numbers handy.

Beware optimistic estimates.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#164
post #150
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would this not become more of an issue if nuclear actually was embraced on a global scale? I mean, eventually we would run out of safe storage - the question would then be whether that would be in 20, 50, 100 years (and whether some better option would exist by then). Disclaimer - I have no idea of the numbers involved so aware this may be a ridiculously trivial issue

One of the reasons we're producing so much radioactive waste is that we're too scared to reprocess spent fuel. There's a lot of fissionable material remaining in the "spent" fuel that can be recovered, enriched, and thrown back into a reactor. The more cycles you put it through, the less waste you'll end up with. But the same process can also be used to make bombs, so we force everyone to keep the spent fuel in a bun…

The deeper reason is that we don't need to reprocess spent fuel now, and that it's cheaper to wait.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#165
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not convinced that it is a solved problem. How old are Egyptian pyramids? Yet there is a lot of stuff that we don't know about them. We are confident, that after 20 000 years, people will still know about nuclear waste storage facilities? Think about it: records could be lost, our language will be different. Why are we so sure that somebody will not dig it up?

The radioactivity of spent fuel decays exponentially. After a few hundred years, most of it is gone, although there is of course the danger due to the chemical toxicity, just like any other heavy metal deposit. Obsessing over what could happen if somebody digs it up after 10000 years is not anchored in reality.

The fission products are mostly gone in centuries, but the actinides persist for much longer.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#166

This highlights the foolishness of relying on magical government solutions. Nuclear power has plenty of promise, if the waste is magically taken care of by an as yet to be implemented solution from the government. Since this solution never arrived, the waste gets stored at each nuclear plant, where it needs to be actively cooled for some period of time.

There's nothing in principle preventing private companies from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel and storing what remains in long-term underground storage. It's just illegal for them to do the reprocessing and too politically unpopular for any local government to consent to having a storage facility built on land it manages. It's misleading to refer to a 'magic government solution' as though the nuclear industry is exp…

It's not illegal to reprocess. Carter's ban was rescinded by Reagan. What it is is stupid. Reprocessing is a net economic loss.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#167
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of this has anything to do with technical problems with building nuclear reactors. The US Navy has been hiring private contractors to build them for decades with no such issues. (And Naval reactors have more stringent requirements than commercial ones, because of the widely varying loads they have to deal with.) The so-called "cost savings" in France are due to unrealistically optimistic assumptions about renewa…

Why don't we just buy a few of those Navy reactors and hook them to the grid?

They wouldn't be close to competitive.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#168
post #18

Just about every builder and operator of large nuclear fleets of reactors have all outright said or implied by their actions that nuclear is uneconomical vs renewable power options. The massive bulge of capital and scheduling needed points to humans not being able to build a next generation of nuclear plants in time to head off the worst climate change, and renewable energy sources being both faster and cheaper to bu…

Jean-Marc Jancovici, engineer in the energy field and pro nuclear, said that the math on renewable is bogus. And that if you don't want nuclear, money should be spent on energy saving measures like heat pumps and building insulation. I do understand how tempting are renewables, low risk, low entry cost..

If he's right, why are everyone + dog installing solar and wind, but hardly anyone is installing nuclear? Has there been a sudden massive decline in greed in the world?

Re: The Nuclear Option

#169

As far as I can tell every top level comment in this thread claiming that Nuclear is more expensive than wind/solar is simply wrong. -- First of all, complaints about the capex of nuclear make little sense if you are trying to argue for wind/solar; as the only reason you could plausibly make a case that solar/wind enjoy a comparable marginal levelized cost as fossil fuels is assuming that the cost of capital is insan…

> First of all, complaints about the capex of nuclear make little sense if you are trying to argue for wind/solar; I'm having a hard time making sense of this claim. You compare the costs of wind/solar to nuclear basically by capex only, why does the cost of capital even matters? Why what relation do fossil fuels beating them on under developed countries change how one compares to the other?

His claim is absurd. The easily checked facts on the ground show new nuclear being several times more expensive than renewables in the US, on a levelized basis.

The president of Exelon, a US corporation that operates 23 nuclear powerplants, has stated that effective CO2 taxes would have to be $300/ton or higher for new nuclear powerplants to compete with natural gas in the US. And yet, wind and solar are increasingly competing with and winning against gas here.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#170
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not convinced that it is a solved problem. How old are Egyptian pyramids? Yet there is a lot of stuff that we don't know about them. We are confident, that after 20 000 years, people will still know about nuclear waste storage facilities? Think about it: records could be lost, our language will be different. Why are we so sure that somebody will not dig it up?

The radioactivity of spent fuel decays exponentially. After a few hundred years, most of it is gone, although there is of course the danger due to the chemical toxicity, just like any other heavy metal deposit. Obsessing over what could happen if somebody digs it up after 10000 years is not anchored in reality.

> The radioactivity of spent fuel decays exponentially

True, but it is still question of the half-life (i.e. plutonium)

> Obsessing over what could happen if somebody digs it up after 10000 years is not anchored in reality.

It is a reasonable concern, because we have never before in our history produced such toxic waste that lives so long. I don't know about you, but I do hope that Homo sapiens will survive next 10k years.

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