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The Nuclear Option

city-journal.org

11–20 of 187 posts

Re: The Nuclear Option

#11
post #3

We need nuclear. Not only is a reliable carbon-free source of nuclear energy, even if wind and solar continue to develop where they provide all the power for day to day use, we can use the excess energy generated to drive CO2 removal from the atmosphere. It is seeming less likely that we able to change course in time such that just stopping carbon emissions prevents disaster. We will likely also need to actively remo…

It's our best chance going forward (short of Fusion) but how do you go about calming people who are quite rightfully scared by it? I live in Japan which has a long history with nuclear but after Fukushima people take to the streets whenever a nuclear plant comes (or is announced to come) back online. If a country like Japan can still screw nuclear up so monumentally I don't hold out much hope for the rest of the worl…

They are not "rightfully scared." Even if you take the highest number of death estimates -- all the way from the initial incident through the people who died in evacuation all the way those who will die of cancer in 20 years -- the death toll is staggeringly low compared to carbon emissions. It just so happens that radiation is scary and deaths happen all at once.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#12
post #9
post #5

Sigh. I've been arguing this for so long, and gave up about 5 years ago. I can't think of a more scalable way than fission to combat carbon, yet it won't happen for so many reasons. * There are too many solar and wind success stories to point to. "Why can't NYC be like Scotland with wind power?!" You start to list the reasons and the response is "we can accomplish it if we put our minds to it!". It's an endless cycle…

I agree with most of your points, however: most of the accidents have more to do with flaws in regulations than mistakes from the nuclear engineers. Chernobyl, which is arguably the worst and most iconic nuclear disaster of all times was mostly caused by a severe violation of procedures. When you take into account he amount of energy that has been produced by nuclear power since the 50s, I'd say we have a pretty good…

I agree with most of your points, however: most of the accidents have more to do with flaws in regulations than mistakes from the nuclear engineers. Chernobyl, which is arguably the worst and most iconic nuclear disaster of all times was mostly caused by a severe violation of procedures. When you take into account he amount of energy that has been produced by nuclear power since the 50s, I'd say we have a pretty good record when it comes to overall safety.

The biggest problem with Chernobyl was the reactor design, which had a positive void coefficient, which outside of something like CANDU reactors is considered insane today. It’s true that their experiment with simulated blackout was the proximal cause, but the fact that increased steam production led to higher power output was the big factor that made it such a huge disaster.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#13
post #3

We need nuclear. Not only is a reliable carbon-free source of nuclear energy, even if wind and solar continue to develop where they provide all the power for day to day use, we can use the excess energy generated to drive CO2 removal from the atmosphere. It is seeming less likely that we able to change course in time such that just stopping carbon emissions prevents disaster. We will likely also need to actively remo…

It's our best chance going forward (short of Fusion) but how do you go about calming people who are quite rightfully scared by it? I live in Japan which has a long history with nuclear but after Fukushima people take to the streets whenever a nuclear plant comes (or is announced to come) back online. If a country like Japan can still screw nuclear up so monumentally I don't hold out much hope for the rest of the worl…

This is where leadership is required. Sadly a quality in short supply these days, when most politicians are worried more about not being offensive then actually doing any good.

Re: The Nuclear Option

#14
post #5

Sigh. I've been arguing this for so long, and gave up about 5 years ago. I can't think of a more scalable way than fission to combat carbon, yet it won't happen for so many reasons. * There are too many solar and wind success stories to point to. "Why can't NYC be like Scotland with wind power?!" You start to list the reasons and the response is "we can accomplish it if we put our minds to it!". It's an endless cycle…

>And the reprocessing ban was by a President who happened to be a nuclear engineer!

Jimmy Carter was not a nuclear engineer. He began a program to become a nuclear officer but quit before the Seawolf (his anticipated assignment) even began construction. Carter was, however, assigned to assist in the cleanup of a partial meltdown incident in 1952.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carter#Naval_career

Re: The Nuclear Option

#15
post #5

Sigh. I've been arguing this for so long, and gave up about 5 years ago. I can't think of a more scalable way than fission to combat carbon, yet it won't happen for so many reasons. * There are too many solar and wind success stories to point to. "Why can't NYC be like Scotland with wind power?!" You start to list the reasons and the response is "we can accomplish it if we put our minds to it!". It's an endless cycle…

"No politician will back nuclear. If there's an accident, they'll be run out of town. Not worth the risk."

I would not be so pessimistic (or optimistic, depending on one's stance on this issue).

One does not have to look far in our current political landscape or in the history books to find plenty of examples of politicians doing stupid, unpopular, or even criminal things, that one could argue they should have avoided like the plague before they even started.

When or if those things fail, if the politicians get caught, or if there's some public outcry, it rarely lasts. The news media has a very limited attention span, and when the story is no longer in the media people tend to forget about it. Not only do most people tend to have a poor memory of political events and poor knowledge of history, but protest movements also rarely last long. Many "disgraced" politicians have managed to make a comeback in politics, and be rather popular, if that's what they chose to do.

The government-corporate partnership is also a revolving door where actors frequently move to highly desirable positions from one to the other. It's quite common for politicians to leave politics and get hired in lucrative positions in the companies they regulated, assigned contracts to, or passed legislation on, and for industry execs or lobbyists to get jobs in politics, after which they go back lucrative jobs in the company they left. Companies have many other ways of rewarding politicians who are on their side.

There's every likelihood that politicians who assigned multi-billion-dollar contracts to corporations will be very well taken care of, even in the event of some sort of political firestorm over their decision. Though politicians tend to also be quite adept at covering their asses and pushing the buck to someone else. "I wasn't told". "I didn't know." "I wasn't the one making the decisions." You can't open the papers these days without seeing those words come out of some politician's mouth.

There are few real consequences except in the case of truly egregious crimes, and even then they tend to be not so bad for white-collar crimes. Not to mention that the politicians tend to have top notch legal teams to keep them out of jail -- that's when they're deemed to not be acting in an official capacity, when they effectively can't be sued at all... and good luck suing the federal government.

Of course, in the case of a truly major nuclear disaster, such lawsuits may actually be successful. But if the risk of such a disaster with modern designs really is so low, then these politicians have nothing to worry about, do they?

Re: The Nuclear Option

#16
post #8
post #5

Sigh. I've been arguing this for so long, and gave up about 5 years ago. I can't think of a more scalable way than fission to combat carbon, yet it won't happen for so many reasons. * There are too many solar and wind success stories to point to. "Why can't NYC be like Scotland with wind power?!" You start to list the reasons and the response is "we can accomplish it if we put our minds to it!". It's an endless cycle…

The overall incredible ignorance around nuclear is staggering. If you ask the average person how many people have died as a result of the Chernobyl incident, they’re usually going to estimate high by orders of magnitude. In general what people don’t understand about radiation is effectively everything about it, and worse, they don’t want to know. Meanwhile trying to explain how many million die each and every year fr…

Maybe this is an issue that could garner bipartisan support, even if for different motivations? Instead of trying to bring back coal, we should be trying to reinvigorate the nuclear power industry. Maybe even turn some of those coal miners in to Uranium miners :)

Re: The Nuclear Option

#17
post #4

Given the construction costs, the case for keeping existing, already paid-for nuclear plants open seems a lot stronger than building new plants that won't pay for themselves for decades. Who knows what the electricity market will look like then? Solar and wind infrastructure is now mass-produced and competition is driving costs down. It's unclear what forms of energy storage will win, but I would expect it to be comp…

Except that's why we have so many power plants based 1950's era designs instead of safer, more modern plants.

“Safer, modern” plants in the US, the UK, and China are being scrapped because they’re not affordable.

Solar, wind, and storage are already cheaper than nuclear. So why build nuclear?

Re: The Nuclear Option

#18
Just about every builder and operator of large nuclear fleets of reactors have all outright said or implied by their actions that nuclear is uneconomical vs renewable power options. The massive bulge of capital and scheduling needed points to humans not being able to build a next generation of nuclear plants in time to head off the worst climate change, and renewable energy sources being both faster and cheaper to build.

France: 44 Billion would be saved by investing in rewables instead of nuclear

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/french-po...

Private operators in the US have said new plants are unlikely due to the economics of nuclear:

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2018-04-1...

The last few completed plants in the US (that didn't get canceled) were 20-30 years in the making - and typically over budget and schedule by more than 2x. With some of the cancelled projects over budget by 3-4x.

Even China, which embarked on building it's own fleet of nuclear plants, and has all sorts of regulatory advantages found that construction was slow and overbudget:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612564/chinas-losing-its-...

Re: The Nuclear Option

#19
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with most of your points, however: most of the accidents have more to do with flaws in regulations than mistakes from the nuclear engineers. Chernobyl, which is arguably the worst and most iconic nuclear disaster of all times was mostly caused by a severe violation of procedures. When you take into account he amount of energy that has been produced by nuclear power since the 50s, I'd say we have a pretty good…

I agree with most of your points, however: most of the accidents have more to do with flaws in regulations than mistakes from the nuclear engineers. Chernobyl, which is arguably the worst and most iconic nuclear disaster of all times was mostly caused by a severe violation of procedures. When you take into account he amount of energy that has been produced by nuclear power since the 50s, I'd say we have a pretty good…

When I learned about Chernobyl reactor, I was surprised how bad the design decisions were. Casing the reactor core in wooden housing?

Re: The Nuclear Option

#20
post #18

Just about every builder and operator of large nuclear fleets of reactors have all outright said or implied by their actions that nuclear is uneconomical vs renewable power options. The massive bulge of capital and scheduling needed points to humans not being able to build a next generation of nuclear plants in time to head off the worst climate change, and renewable energy sources being both faster and cheaper to bu…

I can get the "We cannot build them in time" part but the whole "It is not economical to build them" strikes me as a pretty crazy position to take.

Uneconomical compared to the massive disruption that climate change will bring to our civilization? Are we fighting to save our future or not?

Discarding a proven technology that will massively reduce our carbon emission for an unproven "We still have problems to solve around wide-scale baseload" seems to be ass-backwards to me and pinning more on hope than common sense.

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