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A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

jasonhickel.org

91–100 of 254 posts

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#91
post #46
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the Factfullness book, and I thought it's really poorly argued. I remember my BP was through the roof on the plane when I was reading that. HR is not believable imo. (I work in data, I'm a physicist.)

Rosner, Pinker and Co fell into the same trap they critiqued others - belief in destiny. They try to counter pessimistic destiny narratives with positive destiny narratives and selecting data that fits the narrative. You can't extrapolation the future from current trends. There are discontinuities and challenges that can change the dynamics.

Aren't they simply trying to explain and persuade people current institutions are responsible for the positive changes, and that therefore they are good, and thus we should be supporting them? Also, they seem to counter misconceptions, not advocate for blind faith in a never ending progression.

Pinker actually addressed this, but unfortunately I can't remember in which book/lecture/talk/article. Largely paraphrasing he said that we have to work for the gains, but that doesn't mean we can't have a positive attitude about these processes. (Such as comparative advantage resulting in trade resulting in cooperation and some degree of altruism - or we can just call it "counterparty risk management", or simply looking out for your buyers and suppliers.)

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#92
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I followed this a little bit when it popped up on Twitter last week. The fight appears to be about whether rising global prosperity is helping poor people or mostly just poor people in China; and around the edges, about whether your definition of poor is simply GDP, or includes other harder to quantify things like commons, or if you want to measure it against the US poverty line at purchasing power parity dollars. It…

> IMO globalist capitalism has increased living standards for the poorest people in countries that were well-run enough to take advantage of it, China in particular. But China is not a market economy and as such can't be described simply as an outpost of global capitalism. It has an aggressive, state-led industrial policy, it regulates the shit out of what it does, and it exercises enormous amounts of trade protectio…

Modern China is definitely a "market economy" in every meaningful sense of the term. Unlike in Maoist times, there is no central planning committee deciding what should be manufactured and sold and private businesses make their own decision based on what they think will sell. Is there government intervention in the Chinese market? Of course, but that's true of every country -- even the US. The completely free market is just a theoretical concept never practiced anywhere at any time.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#93
Most people here seem to be missing the point: it’s not that poverty hasn’t been moderately improved over the past 30 years, but rather that Pinker’s work has had an incredibly outsized impact on policy and influence on media narratives.

Simply put, Pinker and Gates have tricked much of the world into thinking neoliberalism is the best thing ever, even though the data actually shows that the majority of the improvement comes from other brands of economic policy and that most of the wins overall are going to a small number of extremely wealthy people. It’s not abjectly terrible but also not great, and when our capacity to improve poverty has improved so much, isn’t there a moral imperative to do better?

Here’s an episode of one of my favorite podcasts that features Hickel as a guest:

https://soundcloud.com/citationsneeded/episode-58-the-neolib...

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/citations-needed/id12585...

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#94
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You misunderstood - the user wrote that the improvement probably won't continue due to climate change (which is expected to negatively impact developing countries more than developed).

this is the difference between ecologist thinking and economist thinking. economists think in curves - starting from a low base it's very easy to improve fast, but the rate of improvement drops off as it nears the global average. ecologists think in straight lines - the rate of improvement is x/year, so in 50 years the improvement will be 50x and they'll be richer than Sweden, who are only improving at (x/10)/year.

Why would ecologists think in straight lines? Don't they start with the Lotka-Volterra differential equations to model prey-predator population fluctuations? (Even if they learn just the concept, and not the underlying math.) Also, haven't they learn a bit about exponential bloom and decay of algae?

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#95
post #85
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They had little if any money, but then they didn’t need it in order to live well – so it makes little sense to claim that they were poor. His argument is that you can't be poor if you don't have a concept of money, like in an agrarian society. You overlooked it because your brain knows it's not true. Quality of life is not a dollar amount. It's all of those graphs Gates shared. Not just the first one.

$1 a day if you're a factory worker needs to pay your rent, and your food, and your fuel, then your support network has gone, so grandparents cant look after kids etc, etc. $1 a day for a farmer means they don't have those costs. Social networks are still in place, etc, etc. As you say, Quality of life is not a dollar amount.

So let's address that.

Do you believe that quality of life for a randomly chosen person has improved since 1820? My reading of Hinkel is that he does not believe it.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#96
post #13

One of the most amazing things I learned reading the excellent "Factfullness" by Hans Rosling [1] is that the poorest countries in the world are currently improving faster than any country ever did, at any point in history. That's correct - countries like Lesotho and Central African Republic are improving faster than his home country of Sweden ever did, at any time. In only his lifetime Sweden went from having an inf…

> Those poor countries are improving faster than Sweden ever did... so in just one more lifetime they'll be where the world leaders are today. This is a very simplistic extrapolation. There are significant factors, primarily social/cultural ones, that will halt the relative development of those countries, sooner or later.

> primarily social/cultural ones, that will halt the relative development of those countries, sooner or later.

Hans addresses this in the book, actually.

What you said has no basis in fact, and makes no sense. Do you think people said exactly the same thing about Sweden a generation ago? Why / why not?

We in the West have this completely-made-up assumption that "they" can't develop like "we" did, with absolutely no grounding in fact.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#97
post #16
post #13

One of the most amazing things I learned reading the excellent "Factfullness" by Hans Rosling [1] is that the poorest countries in the world are currently improving faster than any country ever did, at any point in history. That's correct - countries like Lesotho and Central African Republic are improving faster than his home country of Sweden ever did, at any time. In only his lifetime Sweden went from having an inf…

I read the Factfullness book, and I thought it's really poorly argued. I remember my BP was through the roof on the plane when I was reading that. HR is not believable imo. (I work in data, I'm a physicist.)

> I thought it's really poorly argued

That's interesting, because the book does not contain any arguments.

It contains facts. Hard numbers gathered over generations.

It's not a discussion or an argument, it's simply facts about the state of the world.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#98

So I went and read the Pinker's "rebuttal." He just casually avoided the claim about the entire base of their infographic being bogus, then went on to calling mild centre-left socialdemocrats "far leftists". Why is _anyone_ treating that guy seriously?

To be fair Pinker wrote that in a private mail. When you criticize this, then also let's not forget what on the other hand Hinkel wrote in his article published in the Guardian newspaper:

> It is madness – and no amount of mansplaining from billionaires will be adequate to justify it.

We can certainly discuss about the data and how to interpret it, but using such phrases in a newspaper-article isn't really helpful either.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#99

The process of forcibly integrating colonized peoples into the capitalist labour system caused widespread dislocation (a history I cover in The Divide). Remember, this is the period of the Belgian labour system in the Congo, which so upended local economies that 10 million people died – half the population. This is the period of the Natives Land Act in South Africa, which dispossessed the country’s black population o…

Maybe you should put "that bit about absolute numbers" in the proper context instead of wilfully misrepresenting it:

>[After discussing 1.9$/day as a completely inhumane measure; the equivalent of 35 people living with a UK minimum wage, without any gifts, loans, donations, or help of any kind] the story changes quite a bit - and you know it. If we use $7.40 per day, we see a decline in the proportion of people living in poverty, but it’s not nearly as dramatic as your rosy narrative would have it. In 1981 a staggering 71% lived in poverty. Today it hovers at 58% (for 2013, the most recent data). Suddenly your grand story of progress seems tepid, mediocre, and – in a world that’s as fabulously rich as ours – completely obscene. There is nothing worth celebrating about a world where inequality is so extreme that 58% of people are in poverty, while a few dozen billionaires have more than all of their wealth combined.

>That’s proportions. Don’t get me wrong: proportions are an important indicator – and we should pay attention to it. But absolute numbers are equally important. In fact, that is the metric that the world’s governments first agreed to target in the Rome Declaration in 1996, the precursor to the Millennial Development Goals. The goalposts were shifted to proportions in the following years, which created the impression of faster progress. But really now it’s a moot point: if the goal is to end poverty, what matters is absolute numbers. Certainly that’s what matters from the perspective of poor people themselves.

>And if we look at absolute numbers, the trend changes completely. The poverty rate has worsened dramatically since 1981, from 3.2 billion to 4.2 billion, according to World Bank data. Six times higher than you would have people believe. That’s not progress in my book – that’s a disgrace. It is a crushing indictment of our global economic system, which is clearly failing the majority of humanity. Your claims about global poverty intentionally skate around this fact. Again, that is not responsible scholarship.

So yeah. Either you didn't read it or you wilfully ignored it, because comments such as "hat matters is that fewer people live on the wrong side of the line today than they did yesterday, and fewer people did yesterday than the day before" are incomprehensible otherwise.

Re: A letter to Steven Pinker about global poverty

#100
The vast majority of gains against poverty have happened in one region: East Asia. As it happens, the economic success of China and the East Asian tigers – as scholars like Ha-Joon Chang and Robert Wade have long pointed out – is due not to the neoliberal markets that you espouse but rather state-led industrial policy, protectionism and regulation (the same measures that Western nations used to such great effect during their own period of industrial consolidation). They liberalized, to be sure – but they did so gradually and on their own terms.

China's trade policy is consistent with neo liberalism. China's economy began its huge expansion in the 70's and 80's after opening up trade with the rest of the world, and especially the U.S. So that example fails. Trump is the one who began the tariff war, not china.

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