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Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

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Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#51
Options trading is not zero sum because the utility of money is not linear. When a rich person gives money to a poor person, the net gain is positive because the poor person can use the money to satisfy more basic needs that the rich person has already satisfied, and thus would otherwise have spent the money on something with a smaller return.

As brentr already pointed out, some people trade options for risky gains (such as selling an uncovered call), and some people trade them to offset risk (such as buying an underwater put). Acting in the latter category is like buying insurance: even though your expected return on money is negative, your expected return on utility might still be positive. Acting in the former category is like selling insurance: you run the risk of taking a big hit, but your expected return is still positive.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#52
Speaking as a trader at a major Wall Street firm... if you want a job that will allow you to relax, or if you aren't interested in "working to stay ahead," it's best to stay away from trading. Seriously. The hours aren't quite as bad as the investment banking/corporate finance guys, but I work 13+ hours a day, and my hours are not atypical for a junior guy. If you aren't going to work as hard as the competition, you'd better find some way to be smarter than them.

If you are interested in getting into option trading, make sure you understand it cold. Know what delta, gamma, vega, and theta are. Understand the relationship between these parameters and the price of an option: be able to explain it intuitively, and be able to derive the relationship from an option pricing formula. Understand implied volatility and the connection between vol and option prices. Build a simple Black-Scholes pricer to allow you to compute your own implied vol. Know why the vol surface has the shape it does. Make sure you realize that volatility is directional: vol goes up when markets go down. If you are playing index options vs. single-name options, make sure you understand your correlation risk. The list goes on and on.

Options are interesting, though, because they allow you to trade volatility. Vol is a more complicated thing than simple price movement, so if you understand it well you could have an edge over your competition.

Finally... I think trading is a good job choice for young, ambitious, and numerically minded people. Seems like there are a lot of readers like that here... maybe I'll write a more detailed article about this sort of thing later.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#53
post #3

The irrationality you are referring to is called the self-serving bias (SSB). I wrote a thesis on overconfidence for my master in behavioral economics, and the two are related. SSB is a well-documented bias. For instance, 90% of American drivers think they are in the top 50%. It's hard for people to fully appreciate this fact. Allow me to illustrate. Do you still consider yourself, even after reading this statistic,…

90% (actually, about 98%) of American drivers are above average, owing to a statistical quirk. There are 6 million car accidents in the U.S. each year, out of roughly 240 million vehicles. At a minimum, that means that 97.5% of drivers get in no accidents that year. They join the big bulge of people who are "average", having perfect driving records or only an accident a decade or so. Accident frequency is a power law…

It's all in how you phrase the question, isn't it? Your analysis is right if we're talking about how a person's score on a driving test stacks up against the average score, gp's is right if we're talking about how people rank themselves among the population of all drivers (i.e., if 9/10 drivers think they're in the top five, then there are at least 4 delusional people).

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#54

It isn't zero sum, any more than manufacturing is zero sum because all you did was expend energy rearranging the same old atoms. Trading well requires you to synthesize information that other people will act on. If oil is too cheap, you buy oil, this raises the price and alleviates the problem. The fact that this causes some people to lose money is material, but it just means that trading is a way to redistribute wea…

That doesn't make sense. Manufacturing is not zero sum because you're taking things people don't want (raw materials) and turning them into things they do. It's a zero sum game at the atomic level, but not at the wealth level. Options trading is zero sum because every dollar made by one options trader is lost to another (or to a commission). There's no net wealth generation.

Of course it makes sense. Trading options takes something people don't want (a particular exposure to a particular set of cash flows) and turns it into something they do want (a different kind of exposure to a different set of cash flows). If people they were indifferent to sets of cash flows, markets wouldn't work.

Here is one incredibly obvious way that you're wrong: if you ran an airline, you might be worried that a sudden spike in fuel prices would bankrupt you. They could use futures to speculate that prices would go up, so they'd be indifferent to price changes -- an increase of $X in fuel costs would give them an increase of $X in futures profits. Suddenly, they are a more stable company -- people are more willing to work for them, banks are willing to lend them more money, passengers are more likely to participate in frequent flier programs, airports would be more likely to consider them for long-term spots, etc. Somehow, everyone on that side of the transaction benefits. And lo! The speculator on the other side, betting that prices will go down, is able to do so directly, rather than by indirect means such as buying stock in an unhedged airline and exposing himself to the vagaries of that industry. Even if he loses money in the end, he has what he wants when he makes the trade. However, I needn't restrict myself even to people making business decisions through the futures markets: even a compulsive gambler trading pork bellies is not a compulsive gambler getting drunk at casinos or playing illicit card games. In short, it's a very sanitary sort of gambling (this was not always the case -- in the 1920's, traders at the then-outdoor American Stock Exchange drank constantly to keep warm. This explains a lot).

It is trivial to declare that some business is zero-sum or negative sum. Even retail is a series of zero-sum transactions: I had $5 and the restaurant had a burger, now I have $5 worth of burger and the restaurant has $5 worth of cash. Even, minus time and taxes. And yet, for the most part, our bias is to quite correctly assume that when people voluntarily hand over billions of dollars, some of them becoming poorer and some of them become quite richer in the process, they may be doing something rational. The fact that rich countries develop stock exchanges, and that the development of stock exchanges correlates with future wealth, is not a coincidence.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#55

It isn't zero sum, any more than manufacturing is zero sum because all you did was expend energy rearranging the same old atoms. Trading well requires you to synthesize information that other people will act on. If oil is too cheap, you buy oil, this raises the price and alleviates the problem. The fact that this causes some people to lose money is material, but it just means that trading is a way to redistribute wea…

That doesn't make sense. Manufacturing is not zero sum because you're taking things people don't want (raw materials) and turning them into things they do. It's a zero sum game at the atomic level, but not at the wealth level. Options trading is zero sum because every dollar made by one options trader is lost to another (or to a commission). There's no net wealth generation.

Anyway, every asset can be described as a set of options (I dare you to name something you can sell for cash that you can't theoretically analyze as an option). So by arguing against options, you're arguing against all commerce.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other thing worth noting is that a well functioning capital market is not zero-sum, it puts the capital in the most profitable growth opportunities. So speculators may be incorporating information into prices that has value. Of course they may be incorporating disinformation as well; hence the importance of regulation against cornering the market or pump-and-dump schemes.

Aren't options zero sum? I don't think anyone would suggest the entire stock market is. But every penny you make from an option is a penny someone else loses, unless I'm missing something.

Right, sorry options are zero sum in a money sense, but not in a utility sense. If I write a covered call on shares that I own and a speculator buys it, we both might end up with returns distributions that are preferable to what we had before and so expected utility of wealth is increased though wealth itself perhaps isn't.

Also you have to remember that when options mature in the money they will be exercised resulting in transactions in the actual stock market which is more obviously not zero sum.

So suppose I think Yahoo is under-priced at the moment. I could 1. Purchase a share of Yahoo on the open market, exerting buy pressure on the stock driving up the price

2. Purchase a call on Yahoo; Yahoo's price appreciates some if I'm right putting my call option in the money. If the option writer was naked, they have to go to the open market to purchase a share for me to buy, resulting in buy pressure on the stock driving up the price.

Obviously the link in #2 is not as direct, but potentially prices in the actual stock market can move to incorporate information in the purchases and sales of option contracts as they are exercised. And one step further removed a long equities trader might use the size of the outstanding call and put options market on a stock to forecast price changes.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#57
"When you enter the game, you are assuming that you are better than at least half of the other players."

I think the difference is - at what point does that assumption become atleast somewhat provable. Shaquille O'Neal was probably an athletic 6'10" 280 lbs in high school. Just because the game of basketball itself is zero sum, does that make it irrational to think that he would become a decent professional basketball player?

My favorite part of Taleb's book is when he describes the investing world as if all player's had a random 50/50 shot of making money each year. There are millions of investors, by random chance thousands will do really well, a handful will do really, really well over the course of decades. How do you know Warren Buffet is not part of that handful that is successful purely by chance? It's been awhile since I've read the book, but I remember his philosophy being something like if you have a logical investing/hypothesis that gets proven results, then maybe we can say it's not by chance.

So to answer your question, if you think you have an objective theory/algorithm/etc for option trading and have done blind historical tests or have successfully paper traded for a year+, then you might be on to something. If you think you are just smarter than everybody else, or maybe had a couple successful stock trades, it's probably not a good idea.

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#58
post #50

Short answer: No, don't do it. Long answer: For anyone interested in this stuff I highly recommend the book Trading & Exchanges by Larry Harris. The book is about market microstructure, and the knowledge applies to any market whether it's equities or options or online gambling like intrade.com. It's a textbook, so not riveting reading, but great information. As other posters have pointed out, it depends on how you de…

I'm just a undergrad college student. I read a few articles online and decided to try the options trading simulation at cboe.com

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#59
post #2

Don't some people, especially big organizations buy options/futures as hedges for another investment?... so it might not be a true zero sum game in the sense that some of the players aren't really playing to win.. they are just putting money in for insurance

Yup, This is called an Equity Collar. One should consider getting this insurance even as an individual investor... to protect your investments against worst case scenarios.

Where can one learn more about an Equity Collar?

Re: Ask HN: Why be an option/futures/day trader when it is zero-sum?

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, This is called an Equity Collar. One should consider getting this insurance even as an individual investor... to protect your investments against worst case scenarios.

Where can one learn more about an Equity Collar?

Check this out: http://www.cboe.com/Strategies/EquityOptions/EquityCollars/p...
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