Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

news.ycombinator.com

81–90 of 92 posts

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#81
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this imaginary "Bob" still lost a ton of potential gains and psychological trauma because of his poor timing. He did not come ahead of the 90% of investors, he was in the 90%. Investing blindly in any market is a terrible idea and ignorant advice. Buying and holding is a terrible strategy, especially during crashes or leads up to crashes. "Bob" invested at the peaks of four market cycles and suffered heavy losses…

The >90% don't invest at all and end up worse than Bob. Bob isn't real because it requires perfect market timing and yet even if you were as unlucky as Bob you'd come out ahead. That's the point, that you don't need to worry about timing if you just invest consistently. Calling other people ignorant when you're trying to peddle market timing as a strategy is a bold move...

Not peddling, just offering insight from someone who has experience in this field. Sure no one can time the market, but they can use techniques to assist in their decision making.

If you're an American, the number isn't 10%. 32% of Americans have a 401k. So 32% are investing and a solid portion let their 401k management bank make decisions for them/go by the typical advice given, by bank reps, of "aggressive portfolio when you're young" (majority stocks), "moderate when you reach middle age" (mix of stocks and treasury bonds), "conservative when you're older" (mostly treasury bonds).

If you're younger and signs are pointing to the market crashing within a year or two, your management bank is going to advise on this and tell investors to move their money to cash (if there's even a cash option) or to treasury bonds. No, it's up to the investor to make a decision based on their own research/reading of the signs. Hell, these banks even use dark patterns to make it more difficult for investors to manually control their own portfolio, leading to users giving up on finding or thinking that they can't manage their portfolio and leave it up to the banks to do so.

There are signs for when things aren't going so well and things are going to take a turn for the worst soon. Certain indicators can help with gauging this. No where near being 100% accurate, maybe 52% accurate, but that's still an edge. On top of certain indicators, monitoring quarterly GDP, yield curve rates, unemployment rates, home owners rates, among other stats, help to show what lies ahead. If one can get out some months before a crash, then great, it's likely that they didn't get out at the peak of the market cycle, but at least they likely saved their 401k from a 20% drop. And in the case that they did move to a cash option at the peak, then they likely saved themselves from a loss of between 40%-60%. If cash isn't an option, then likely saved around a 35-40% loss.

Investing blindly isn't a good strategy no matter how one looks at it, but learning what to look and monitoring periodically can help in preventing catastrophic losses

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#82
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The >90% don't invest at all and end up worse than Bob. Bob isn't real because it requires perfect market timing and yet even if you were as unlucky as Bob you'd come out ahead. That's the point, that you don't need to worry about timing if you just invest consistently. Calling other people ignorant when you're trying to peddle market timing as a strategy is a bold move...

Not peddling, just offering insight from someone who has experience in this field. Sure no one can time the market, but they can use techniques to assist in their decision making. If you're an American, the number isn't 10%. 32% of Americans have a 401k. So 32% are investing and a solid portion let their 401k management bank make decisions for them/go by the typical advice given, by bank reps, of "aggressive portfoli…

I buy and hold index funds, so by definition I obtain the market average over time. All these supposed schemes to beat market returns never explain who are the suckers on the other side of those bets that are getting lower than average returns so you can have higher than average ones. And in aggregate those advantages are impossible as can be trivially demonstrated with just some basic math:

https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm

If you can actually derive meaningful excess returns from market timing that's great for you. I suggest a career in finance, you'll be obscenely rich if you can do it consistently, and probably still very rich if you can at least convince other people of your theories. To suggest that normal retail investors who don't specialize in this can obtain those advantages as well is fantasy.

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#83
post #10

If 4 fail and one grows by 10X you will have 10K. It seems that your goal should be turning 5K into 10K over 5 years which seems doable. Since the amount of money you're dealing with is fairly small, I would suggest putting your energy into a single project instead of multiple ideas. Splitting your focus seems like a mistake when dealing with so little capital. Start a side hustle if you want or spend it on teaching…

Hello! Thanks for the answer, I liked how you approached the problem. The issue is that I cannot focus on a single project.

> If you work 40 hours a week, 50 weeks of the year for five years that equals 10,000 hours. So if you can learn a skill that increases your hourly wage by $1 you will have met your goal.

I have a steady 9-6 job as a React Native developer, where I keep learning and growing and can apply my knowledge to front-end React as well

> or spend it on teaching yourself a skill that will translate into a higher income.

I've just invested in a yoga teacher training and started teaching yoga classes, so some of my time goes there

> Start a side hustle if you want

I'm building http://music.hatharaja.com and http://spotifyxgenius.now.sh in my spare time, making yoga websites for my friends (for free), and building a model to recognize yoga poses.

> Since the amount of money you're dealing with is fairly small, I would suggest putting your energy into a single project instead of multiple ideas.

I really want to start learning about 3d modelling and product design (inspired by https://www.instagram.com/dobu.haishen/ https://www.instagram.com/blankwilliamnyc/)

I'm also learning machine learning.

The Snowball book about Warren Buffet also advises focussing on one thing, which I wish I could do. Anyway, my point is that my time is already diversely invested, which is why I am also looking at some more passive forms of investment. People have been suggesting ETFs as "safe" long-term investments, which I'm looking into. Maybe I can use 50% of my investment capital to build some products after I've learnt 3d modelling and then invest the rest in ETFs.

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#84
That sounds more like speculating than investing. I always view investing as simply a hedge against inflation rather than a true money making venture.

If you are investing put it in a low-cost index tracker sheltered in a tax efficient vehicle (in UK that would be ISA or private pension scheme). Let it compound forever. That's probably what I would do.

If you've not heard of him, look up Harry Browne. He recommended splitting your portfolio four ways: gold, cash, bonds, stocks. He reckoned that way you'd do OK no matter what was going on in the world.

If you feel more like speculating perhaps learn poker and take a trip to Vegas? ;)

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#85
post #42

Most answers you're getting here are on the responsible side i.e. Bogleheads-like. Your question makes it feel like you're ready for some extra risk and I am assuming these 5k aren't your entire savings. - Wefunder allows you to invest in companies with small amount. Find something really promising there. - Spend time researching small-cap companies in the $1-$5 range and invest 1K where metrics and fundamentals seem…

Boglehead here...;)

Good answer, and you made me think of something with a bit more risk. There are these micro-loan companies now where you can lend out cash and get at least a higher rate of interest than most savings accounts.

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#86
Put some in Premium Bonds [1]. No interest, but you get capital preservation and a shot at the monthly GBP1M prize. Likely you'll pick up a few GBP25 prizes over a year, so it will be as good as a cash deposit, given the crappy savings rates on offer from the major banks. I did this 10 years ago when I temporarily had a lot of cash after a house sale.

[1] https://www.nsandi.com/premium-bonds

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#87
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not peddling, just offering insight from someone who has experience in this field. Sure no one can time the market, but they can use techniques to assist in their decision making. If you're an American, the number isn't 10%. 32% of Americans have a 401k. So 32% are investing and a solid portion let their 401k management bank make decisions for them/go by the typical advice given, by bank reps, of "aggressive portfoli…

I buy and hold index funds, so by definition I obtain the market average over time. All these supposed schemes to beat market returns never explain who are the suckers on the other side of those bets that are getting lower than average returns so you can have higher than average ones. And in aggregate those advantages are impossible as can be trivially demonstrated with just some basic math: https://web.stanford.edu/…

All I know is that I'm in a good place with my experience in finance and my gains, and was just trying to share information. And fyi, the information shared isn't "mine", it's what's used in the industry, and the measurements outside of technical indicators are used by the Treasury Department.

But whatever works for you man.

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#88

That sounds more like speculating than investing. I always view investing as simply a hedge against inflation rather than a true money making venture. If you are investing put it in a low-cost index tracker sheltered in a tax efficient vehicle (in UK that would be ISA or private pension scheme). Let it compound forever. That's probably what I would do. If you've not heard of him, look up Harry Browne. He recommended…

I've played poker overnight in Atlantic City and made about $100 with $100. Not exactly profitable.

The cash, bonds, and stocks advice sounds similar to what Ben Graham recommends in the Intelligent Investor. Thanks!

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#89
post #11

Do you have debt? Yes? Pay it off! Do you have an emergency fund? No? make that your investment! Do you have 3-6 times your monthly expenses set aside? No? make that your investment! Still money left? invest in MSCI World oder S&P 500 ETFs and let it sit for a decade or two ... that should net you your 10x growth Edit: removed the MSCI EM ETF recommendation ... S&P 500 performs better.

Thanks!

So for S&P 500 ETFs I'm seeing for example:

* Boost Issuer Public Limited Company BOOST S&P 500 3X LEVERAGE DAILY * Boost Issuer Public Limited Company BOOST S&P 500 3X LEVERAGE DAILY 30/11/62 * Boost Issuer Public Limited Company BOOST S&P 500 3X SHORT DAILY * HSBC Etfs PLC HSBC S&P 500 UCITS ETF * HSBC Etfs PLC HSBC S&P 500 UCITS ETF $

How would I know about telling the difference between them and which one I should choose?

Similarly for MSCI World:

* Amundi Index Solutions AMUNDI MSCI WORLD ENERGY * HSBC Etfs PLC HSBC MSCI WORLD UCITS ETF * Ishares Iii PLC ISHRS CORE MSCI WORLD ETF USD (ACC)

I'm considering picking them based on their Morningstar ratings and past performance over 5 years, would that make sense?

Re: Ask HN: Which 5 investments of £1k each should I make?

#90
post #42

Most answers you're getting here are on the responsible side i.e. Bogleheads-like. Your question makes it feel like you're ready for some extra risk and I am assuming these 5k aren't your entire savings. - Wefunder allows you to invest in companies with small amount. Find something really promising there. - Spend time researching small-cap companies in the $1-$5 range and invest 1K where metrics and fundamentals seem…

Boglehead here...;) Good answer, and you made me think of something with a bit more risk. There are these micro-loan companies now where you can lend out cash and get at least a higher rate of interest than most savings accounts.

Yes that's a good point. Getting 5-10x gains there are hard to come by though :)

You can sell options - they are like selling insurance for market crashes. That gives infinite return in practice since you get money for free.

The downside is you can lose your shirt if the market goes south and are liable for the insurance policy you provided.

Post reply on HN