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Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

bbc.co.uk

171–180 of 345 posts

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#171
This title misrepresents the outcome. A better headline would have been:

> Finland basic income trial improved happiness but not employment

It’s unfortunate the BBC chose that quote, as it misrepresents the outcome of the trial as _creating_ joblessness, rather than failing to _alter_ joblessness.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#172

> The aim was to see if a guaranteed safety net would help people find jobs I'm confused, was that ever the expected goal of basic income?

I don't think at all that a two year study with a tiny subset of a populace would be adequate to produce the desired effect, and I don't think framing it as "find jobs" is sensible either.

But a lot of the UBI movement likes to think that if given a long-term guarantee on a society-wide basis after a "vacation" period where people adjust to having the bottom rung of the hierarchy of needs guaranteed they would pursue higher actualization and often greater economic benefit to the society by doing so.

Its the difference between why a lottery winner will splurge it all in excess and vice and wind up bankrupt again while a hereditary millionaire can live a productive managerial life on top of a corporate hierarchy. The former lived without, had fortunes rain upon them, and treated it like evaporating water to be drowned in. The later had from birth, never went without, and thus never had to fear being without. They didn't know the scarcity or struggle and thus didn't overdose on excess since they always had it.

The opposites also happen. Lottery winners sometimes stay responsible with the money. Rich kids blow their family fortunes and end up destitute. But the disparity between them is the divide between the fleeting sensation of plenty and being immersed in it in perpetuity.

So for UBI advocates, the idea is that immersion in a basic standard of living would enable the masses to behave much like how the billionaire playboy philanthropist does on a smaller scale - learn more, expand your horizons, take more risks, and pursue your passions. If you don't feel like you could ever lose the basics, and everyone has them likewise, nobody is in a struggle to survive that breeds animal instinct anti-rational behavior like payday loans or buying lottery tickets. If you are instead struggling for splendor and prestige rather than food and shelter you have a lot more room to grow as a person, and for those that do they will be much more valuable to society as innovators than burger flippers.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#173
post #53

Did they not have an identical cohort serving as a control to compare employment rates at the end of the trial?

no they did not.

quote: Included in the random sampling were all individuals between ages 25 and 58 whom Kela paid labour market subsidy or basic unemployment allowance in November 2016 for some other reason than a temporary layoff. Random sampling means that all who satisfied the requirements for inclusion in the experiment had an equal probability of being selected into the study population.

so the group who received the subsidy was already skewed by a previous selection process.

I don't see any mention of a control group in the experiment web site:

[0] https://www.kela.fi/web/en/basic-income-objectives-and-imple...

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#174
post #155
post #129

Handing out free money will most likely just cause inflation and defeat itself. The inflation will make the amount paid out in basic income insufficient to live on. The alternate to basic income for the purpose of housing, health and food, is to provide a basic version of those resources at zero cost.

I don’t know why you were downvoted because you’re right. A simple thought experiment can prove it: give everyone $1 million every year starting today. Is everyone suddenly rich? Just for a few days. Eventually milk will cost $500/gallon. The effects of Supply and demand can’t be legislated out of existence.

Sure, a massive influx of newly minted money will cause inflation. That's a given. But it's not sustainable and clearly not a sensible way to implement this policy. If we instead took this money from other taxes most likely there'd be some inflation, but not enough to make the money useless. Finally, I know 1m was a hyperbole but basic income doesn't need to guarantee you can live comfortably anywhere without working, only somewhere. Downtown SF? Nope. Most of CA? Still probably too expensive. Midwest? Now we're talking.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#175
Seriously asking. Is it possible to use your basic income to get a loan?

I just envision people buying all sorts of things without understanding what they're signing up for.

And from a U.S. perspective, I don't trust a system filled with rent-to-owns, payday lenders, and car dealer/financers stopping anyone from making bad choices.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#176
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scarcity is beyond just stuff. Land for example is a finite resource.

It is and it isn't. Land in Manhattan is scarce. Land in the non-coastal western US or most of Canada or Australia is theoretically scarce too, but not so much in practice.

If humanity lived at the density of Paris (21,438/km^2), we could all live in an area half the size of Texas (695,663 km^2).

So if we're talking about material post-scarcity, land is more than plentiful.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#177
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always think of Star Trek. It isn't really explored in depth but there isn't money and people don't have to work, transporter rationing is alluded to though. I guess in a world where everything can be made in a replicator, 'employment' becomes untenable. You still need some way of rationing scarce resources, and allowing people to 'vote' for what they want more of though.

Scarcity is beyond just stuff. Land for example is a finite resource.

If we are efficient enough in our use of land, the demand relative to the supply will shrink enough that it's no longer scarce.

I suppose lots of people enjoy owning their own land-- large tracts of it in fact, and not sharing it with anyone. That's a little tougher to conceptualize as post-scarcity as there's a limit to making land enjoyment more efficient with advanced technology. But in a world where other resources are less scarce perhaps we can think about colonizing other planets and terraforming as ways to increase supply.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never-mind the money, I fear that even if we can implement it and pay for it, there will still be a host of social problems that UBI advocates do not want to grapple with. There's still no answer to questions like "what if it starts to entrench a permanent underclass and make inter-generational wealth worse, as people who stop working bear a generation of people who have never worked, and they bear children, etc". ht…

> There's still no answer to questions like "what if it starts to entrench a permanent underclass and make inter-generational wealth worse, as people who stop working bear a generation of people who have never worked, and they bear children, etc". Why would reducing disincentives to work, as compared to means-tested welfare, rationally be expected to have anything like that effect?

The main incentive to work is that you need to work to make a living. If the government hands you everything you need without working that is a massive disincentive to work

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#179

It's a general misunderstanding that Basic Income is some sort of job program, it's not. It's a job replacement program for a society where there aren't enough jobs for everyone because technology have taken over most. Basic Income should provide fundamental living cost support in a society that has no jobs so there is no "but" in there. Edit: Keep in mind we already have Basic Income it's just conditional. UBI is di…

It's neither (at least, exclusively) a jobs program nor a jobs replacement program, but it has elements of both; it makes more work available (when replacing minimum wages as a floor-setting system), improves capacity for labor market realignment via retraining, and better addresses the needs of those who, even with that, cannot find adequate work.

Re: Basic income in Finland did not lead to finding work, researchers said

#180
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lately, I’ve been in the mood to read recently-published business self-help books. One thing that surprised me was that three of the books had a common premise. They began by describing the habits of some of the most notable people in history (scientists, artists, business people, etc). Then, they went on to say how these habits would be necessary to maintain a job in the new globalized marketplace. Wait, what? So, a…

Wait, what? So, anyone who wants to have a job must emulate the habits of some of the most impressive people in history? Wow. Isn't that how a lot of human progress works? The scientific viewpoint was once a pastime of educated elites. Now the world model derived from it is very much mainstream. (Though it isn't 100% universal) Reading, writing, and arithmetic were once elite and esoteric specialist skills, now they…

Viewpoints and skills are teachable, although that can take a lot of effort.

But habits ? depending on what habits are we talking about, some are highly related to personality, to willpower, to interpersonal skills,etc and those are really hard to change, or maybe impossible, for some.

And if aim so high in changing human beings, is this the best we can do ? to create better money making machines ? And what will that do to our old values - stuff like kindness, family values, creativity for it's own sake ?

And will it even work ? Or is being an Elon Musk copy will just become a requirement for working as a barista ?

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