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An Introduction to the Mathematics of Uncertainty (2010) [pdf]

creighton.edu

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Re: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Uncertainty (2010) [pdf]

#3

Post by denzil_correa »

It is important to distinguish between risk and uncertainty.

> "Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty

Re: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Uncertainty (2010) [pdf]

#4

Post by js8 »

denzil_correa wrote: post #3

It is important to distinguish between risk and uncertainty. > "Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences…

It also influenced Keynes and many post-keynesians, much more than neoclassical school.

Re: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Uncertainty (2010) [pdf]

#6

Post by wespiser_2018 »

soVeryTired wrote: post #5

Can anyone give a high level summary of what you can accomplish with fuzzy logic that you can't do with more classical probability theory? What's the 'elevator pitch' for why someone should learn the theory?

Fuzzy sets allow you to use set theoretic tools over objects with varying degrees of membership. This is a useful construct when trying to reason over probabilistic evidence, and IMO can be a useful modelling tool.

Re: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Uncertainty (2010) [pdf]

#8

Post by soVeryTired »

wespiser_2018 wrote: post #6
soVeryTired wrote: post #5

Can anyone give a high level summary of what you can accomplish with fuzzy logic that you can't do with more classical probability theory? What's the 'elevator pitch' for why someone should learn the theory?

Fuzzy sets allow you to use set theoretic tools over objects with varying degrees of membership. This is a useful construct when trying to reason over probabilistic evidence, and IMO can be a useful modelling tool.

Have you got a concrete example?
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