Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Hanlons razor is a logical fallacy I'm not see'ing it, and a quick google search isn't finding any support for that idea; it seems to me quite reasonable: Given 2 common possible explanations, prefer one. Perhaps the "Never" is at issue, but I doubt anyone ever actually interprets never as never.
Logical fallacies are not a finite set. Those you find listed on places like wikipedia are merely the most popular.
Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
71–80 of 108 posts
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#72Not that it changes anything, but is it known what the Crystal was attempting? The animation looks like it kept trying to pass ahead of the Fitzgerald for an impossible port to port passage. Or was the Crystal totally unaware of the Fitzgerald?
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#73A dozen or so [maintenance issues] were considered more serious. They included problems with the ship’s primary navigation system. It was the oldest such system among destroyers based in Japan. It was running on Windows 2000, even though other ships had been upgraded. It could not display information from the AIS. The broken email system had a “major impact” on the ship’s day-to-day operations. Microsoft Outlook did…
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
> How the hell does a first-line warship of the United States Navy get into a state like this? Command negligence at very high levels, a high optempo without adequate attention to readiness and discipline. > Based on the article it sounds like the excuse they've settled on is just blaming everything on the crew Unless you are including the chain of command above the ship's commander up through and including the 7th F…
Yup, from the article: The Navy inquiries determined that there had been widespread problems with leaders regarding shortfalls in training, manning and equipment in the 7th Fleet. The Navy fired admirals, captains and commanders, punished sailors and criminally prosecuted officers for neglecting their duties. Adm. John Richardson, head of the Navy, called the two collisions “avoidable tragedies.” The ships’ commander…
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
I spent 5+ years on a ship in 7th fleet and am all too familiar with what was described above. I would attribute it to a few things. Mostly the over-extension of resources and people. The operational tempo in 7th fleet is absolutely ridiculous, so everything that isn't "mission accomplishment" gets pushed to the wayside. Training, making sure equipment is properly fixed.. our days were so jam packed full of bullshit…
Would you say this is primarily a resource problem? A culture problem with the 7th Fleet? A culture problem in the USN overall?
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
I spent 5+ years on a ship in 7th fleet and am all too familiar with what was described above. I would attribute it to a few things. Mostly the over-extension of resources and people. The operational tempo in 7th fleet is absolutely ridiculous, so everything that isn't "mission accomplishment" gets pushed to the wayside. Training, making sure equipment is properly fixed.. our days were so jam packed full of bullshit…
Would you say this is primarily a resource problem? A culture problem with the 7th Fleet? A culture problem in the USN overall?
It's their job to make sure the U.S. military is functioning well, and they're apparently not doing it.
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hanlon's razor at work... "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"
But never forget that malice does exist, and the clever malicious will often conceal their malice behind a veil of plausible stupidity. For instance, "Oops I accidentally forgot my briefcase full of classified documents on the bus" is as old as spycraft itself.
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#78> The 26-year-old officer of the deck, who was in charge of the destroyer at the time of the crash, had navigated the route only once before in daylight. In a panic, she ordered the Fitzgerald to turn directly into the path of the Crystal. Just a random comment: She may well have panicked, but depending on proximity, that may have been the correct move, if executed correctly and in time. In other words, the move may…
TFA:
Instead, Coppock ordered a move that disregarded the very basics of her training. She commanded the helmsman to gun the destroyer’s powerful engines to full speed and duck in front of the Crystal by heading left.
I don't think this abortive maneuver is well indicated in TFA's "cut-scenes", but it would never make sense as a way to avoid a collision. Unlike the situation you describe in which two ships were traveling roughly parallel courses, the courses of these ships were roughly perpendicular, with Fitzgerald's starboard side facing Crystal's port side. The way for Fitzgerald to avoid contact would have been to change speed (either faster or slower) or to steer hard to starboard while slowing in order to go behind the other vessel. The presence of other vessels might have caused problems with any of those options, but "matching" the other ship's course was likely to cause a collision. If she had enough power to clear the other ship while turning to port, she had more than enough to clear it while maintaining the current heading. Of course, she didn't have enough power to do either, at 0130.
There is no indication in TFA that Crystal was ever plotted as a separate contact from Wan Hai, even after they finally noticed Crystal. If that's the case they really were flying blind, relying on nonexistent intuition to steer through the gauntlet. It would have been surprising if any of the bridge personnel had had enough experience to simply see the right maneuvers by eye at night, which TFA seems to imply Coppock attempted to do. Perhaps the CO or XO would have had that experience, but since they were both in their cabins instead of on the bridge we'll never know...
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Logical fallacies are not a finite set. Those you find listed on places like wikipedia are merely the most popular.
That’s fine and well, but irrelevant to what I said. I failed to deduce the fallacy myself or find anyone else doing it for me, thus I’m asking.
Re: Death and Valor on an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy
#80Not really an improvement over less flashy presentations IMO