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The world might run out of people

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Re: The world might run out of people

#171
post #113
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're mixing up goodness as in deserving, vs goodness as in capacity to do good. Spandrell never said anything like smart people are more deserving. He says smart people have more capacity to accomplish things which most people consider good. E.g safety, comfort, health, stability, wealth - and not just for themselves but for others too. Hard to argue with as far as I can see.

'Capacity' to do 'good' (even per your definition) is so strongly reliant on the environment that one exists in, that I do not think you can defend your position in a rational manner. I also find it mildly offensive that your comment, and that of Spandrell, implies that smartness is measured only in IQ. High IQ is only a predictor of high test-solving abilities. What's more, people living in poor countries and outsid…

Sorry, gonna have to fisk this one.

>Capacity' to do 'good' (even per your definition) is so strongly reliant on the environment that one exists in

Yes, an environment created by the people in your community. Or were you talking about the climate and mineral resources and stuff like that? Because considering the inverse relationship between natural resources and the outcomes of countries, that doesn't come close to holding up.

>I also find it mildly offensive that your comment, and that of Spandrell, implies that smartness is measured only in IQ.

My comment implied nothing at all like that. Also even if I said that, which I didn't, it would be nonsensical to find it "offensive" unless you're using offense as a goal or a tactic.

>High IQ is only a predictor of high test-solving abilities.

Absolutely not. It is the #1 most predictive psychometric measure ever devised for predicting important life outcomes. It predicts criminality, longevity, income, education, health, and a host of other critical factors better than any other psychometric test that exists.

>people living in poor countries and outside of cities aren't 'incapable' of doing good.

In the modern world, low IQ people lack the mental tools to have a big impact. They're not smart enough to effectively write books, invent technologies, create or run movements or companies or unions, make strong political arguments, etc. It's not their fault, it's just how they are. They can do good in small ways, and many do amazing things in that area. But the modern world revolves around concentrated power, and power concentrates in the hands of those with high IQ.

>They are often poorly educated, lack role models, lack good parenting, lack a good peer group, and fundamentally, lack opportunity and a financially stable childhood.

True. The question is why.

>Virtually all of it is structural injustices thrown their way through the roll of a dice.

If it these injustices were a "roll of the dice", they would be randomly distributed across the population. They're concentrated in low-IQ communities, indicating that they're not random; they're actually connected to the fact the community is low IQ. I argue that there is a causal relationship: low IQ people tend to make decisions that make their communities worse (crime, dropping out of school, drugs, irresponsible parenting, etc), which creates the injustices suffered by the members of that community.

Re: The world might run out of people

#172
post #95
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but like all things it ignores other variables, such as for example the sun going into a cooler period or the gulfstream or el nino changing. Obviously the former is global while the latter likely won’t counteract the warming effect much. But it’s extrapolating based on the assumption that we know there won’t be any other mechanisms — feedback, collapse, new phenomena being activated by this like the growing o…

I think your understand of the issue is a bit fuzzy. For example, the business insider article seems to imply that we can't "plant our way out" using trees. But you interpret this to mean "we can't do it ourselves". But no one ever said planting trees is the only thing we can do to stop climate change. We can also: change our crop and animal yields, use less fossil fuels, etc. Same thing with the arizona article abou…

I’m saying climate scientists were missing a lot 6 years ago and 30 years ago, and it’s unreasonable to expect that exactly now they finally are “totally informed”. There are tons of external factors and it’s hubris to think the map is the territory when it comes to such a complex system as the entire planet!

Or how about the entire solar system... I am not talking any conspiracies. I am saying our global warming may in useful and actually happen to coincide with a cooling period by the sun:

https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/gk-current-affairs...

https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming...

Stop assuming the worst of your discussion partners :)

And of course the above headlines ard also hubris because we don’t even know if the sun dimmed a lot or if that was the main cause of the little ice age:

Foukal emphasized this dimming might not have been the only or even main cause of the cooling seen during the little ice age. "There were also strong volcanic effects involved — something like 17 huge volcanic eruptions then," he said.

I prefer to talk about CO2 pollution as a pollution problem, to avoid exactly this argument about temperature predictions.

Re: The world might run out of people

#173

Quoting Spandrell: At this moment, every single human population with an IQ over 95 has a fertility rate below replacement; and the places where the most intelligent and productive people tend to live, big cities, have generally fertility rates below 1. Not below 2, replacement, but below 1, half of replacement. As I’ve said again and again, big cities today are IQ shredders, where the genes that code for high intell…

For thousands of years (tens of thousands, probably) cities were a demographic drain. More people died in London than were born there, and the cities only survived because you can make a lot more money there (including enough not to starve to death).

Perhaps in the future the same thing will happen: kids will be reared in cheap places, then move to cities for the opportunities there, then fail to produce at replacement levels, and get buffed up by people moving in to the city from the country.

Re: The world might run out of people

#174
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>entire fields of practical human knowledge and know-how can be lost forever. Plenty of examples of that happening as a result of technology.

Can you give an example? Technology may remove the need for physical skills, but I don't really see how it would wipe out fields of knowledge.

Can you create abortificiants/contraceptives from local plants? Most of that knowledge, which used to be widespread among women, was never written down, and with modern pills nobody needs to.

Re: The world might run out of people

#175
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't fully explain why humans don't want to have a lot of kids. Have you ever been around kids? They're really a pain in the ass, especially if they're boys. (For instance, as a single guy, I'm far more likely to be interested in dating a single mother with girls than one with boys; little boys are just too destructive and disobedient.) Smart people aren't having so many kids now because they don't have to. I…

> Have you ever been around kids? They're really a pain in the ass, especially if they're boys. Suck it up. What, do you want having kids to be as seamless as an Uber Eats order? It's not. It's hard work. I'm sure your parents gave up on a lot to have you, too. That's part of being an adult.

> Suck it up.

Why?

Re: The world might run out of people

#176
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't fully explain why humans don't want to have a lot of kids. Have you ever been around kids? They're really a pain in the ass, especially if they're boys. (For instance, as a single guy, I'm far more likely to be interested in dating a single mother with girls than one with boys; little boys are just too destructive and disobedient.) Smart people aren't having so many kids now because they don't have to. I…

> Have you ever been around kids? They're really a pain in the ass, especially if they're boys. Suck it up. What, do you want having kids to be as seamless as an Uber Eats order? It's not. It's hard work. I'm sure your parents gave up on a lot to have you, too. That's part of being an adult.

> Suck it up.

Why don't you suck up me not having any?

Re: The world might run out of people

#177
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're mixing up goodness as in deserving, vs goodness as in capacity to do good. Spandrell never said anything like smart people are more deserving. He says smart people have more capacity to accomplish things which most people consider good. E.g safety, comfort, health, stability, wealth - and not just for themselves but for others too. Hard to argue with as far as I can see.

Smart people also have equally as much capacity to accomplish things which most people consider bad. Capability and goodness are generally orthogonal.

> Capability and goodness are generally orthogonal.

They are not generally orthogonal. They generally correlate well.

See Gwern's "The IQ Halo effect": https://www.gwern.net/iq

Re: The world might run out of people

#178

I haven't heard of a specie disapearing primarily because it didn't have enough babies. Even the giant panda, before arriving to this situation, had seen their forests devasted by us. So at best, I expect our specie to mess up in some big ways, then maybe, the finish blow will be reproduction. Yet I doubt it. First, other threats have a way higher likelyhood. India has no water, terrible social tension, instable bord…

> Even the giant panda, before arriving to this situation, had seen their forests devasted by us.

This only changes the question very slightly.

If people in modern cultures are unmotivated to have [replacement rate] babies just like the pandas, what metaphorical forests of human experience have we already destroyed?

Re: The world might run out of people

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High IQ is only a predictor of high test-solving abilities. Absolutely not. IQ correlates well with a number of desirable characteristics, for individuals as well as groups. education, role models, etc These things don't matter nearly as much as people like to think. roll of a dice A dice that appears to be consistently biased in favour of those with high test-solving abilities?

Please check out the recent posts on the subject by Nicholas Nassim Taleb. Illuminating. IQ tests work only to identify people who have a cognitive issue: low IQ is predictive. Anything above 100 is a wash in terms or real world success metrics. (Eg. Income)

Nope. Although the replies Taleb got from people who've actually read this stuff aren't a bad place to start.

Re: The world might run out of people

#180
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't fully explain why humans don't want to have a lot of kids. Have you ever been around kids? They're really a pain in the ass, especially if they're boys. (For instance, as a single guy, I'm far more likely to be interested in dating a single mother with girls than one with boys; little boys are just too destructive and disobedient.) Smart people aren't having so many kids now because they don't have to. I…

> This doesn't fully explain why humans don't want to have a lot of kids Humans in (actual or perceived) stable social and economic environments with strong extrafamilial support systems adopt low-number, high-investment K-strategy, humans in (actual or perceived) unstable social and economic environments with weak extrafamilial support systems adopt high-number, low-investment r-strategy. > kids are very costly in t…

The phenomenon Spandrell describes is a concern largely independent of whether the total population is increasing or decreasing.

Every advanced country has built a system for vacuuming up the most talented individuals from the countryside, and giving them important jobs in rat-race cities, where (for various reasons) they will have fewer kids. To counter this, you'd have to draw from somewhere else equally talented newcomers, and maybe a few countries can.

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