I've always kind of felt that man kind would go the way of the Mice Utopia experiment - https://www.returnofkings.com/36915/what-humans-can-learn-fr...
The world might run out of people
51–60 of 202 posts
Re: The world might run out of people
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or climate change? (Ducks) PS: I realize now that people downvote not based on the content of the post or the argument but based on whether they don’t think the argument should be made because they dont like the conclusion .
No, climate change was predicted well before a temperature change was observed (i.e. over 100 years ago), and it was based on the fact that the world burns enormous amounts of coal and the fact that CO2 has a certain infrared absorption spectrum. It was a prediction based on basic physics before an empirical observation of the global result was seen. But there is something analogous: look at birthrates, and you have…
Right, but like all things it ignores other variables, such as for example the sun going into a cooler period or the gulfstream or el nino changing.
Obviously the former is global while the latter likely won’t counteract the warming effect much. But it’s extrapolating based on the assumption that we know there won’t be any other mechanisms — feedback, collapse, new phenomena being activated by this like the growing of new phytoplankton-like organisms or trees outside human habitats which automatically sequester trillions of tons of carbon back)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/we-are-making-the-gl...
https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/dead-forests-release-less-c...
We can’t do it ourselves:
https://www.businessinsider.com/so-much-co2-planting-trees-c...
And
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100503161435.h...
I happen to think that the extrapolation is going to closely approximate what will actually happen, but I could be wrong.
Re: The world might run out of people
#53This is indeed the leading theory about where the world will be heading over the next couple of decades. But I think the answer really depends on the culture of subpopulations.
In the USA for example, republican ruled states have more babies than democrat ruled states [1]. Or in israel, the fertility rate of the orthodox haredi minority is very high with 6.9 children per woman in 2017 (children not childbirths) compared to the non-haredi per-woman value of 2.4 [2].
So where will this lead us to? I think we'll experience growing percentages of conservatives/orthodox populations across the world while the liberal populations will shrink. Overall there will be a shrinkage but the conservative population growth might eat up that shrinkage and one day we might have overall growth again. But predicting the future is hard of course. For example, you could have the conversion of the conservative mindset towards liberalism which is happening in the entire world since maybe 100 years or such eat up every population increase of the conservative minorities.
Or you could have sci-fi tech that influences population infertility quite much, e.g. with artificial uteruses. With them, minorities that value large amounts of children might grow quicker and governments could want to influence how many children are being grown to fight population declines.
Or it might be figured out how to prevent/reverse aging and the number of "natural" deaths will sink to zero. Then your population will start growing again even without the contribution from conservative/orthodox minorities as the number of babies would still be larger than the (low) number of deaths due to accidents, crimes, etc.
[1]: https://www.fatherly.com/health-science/republicans-have-mor... [2]: https://en.idi.org.il/articles/20439
Re: The world might run out of people
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quiverfuls are quite rare even in religious families with multiple children. It takes extraordinary conviction to continue when you are already feeding 10 children on one income. Even if those children do some of work.
It's not uncommon in some circles. I personally know many families with 7-12 children spread among all parts of the income scale.
In some circles, surely. But I took quiverful literally as that sect where they don't use anticonception at all (including counting days) and accept as many kids whenever they come. E.g. no conscious birth control at all.
They move in similar circles, because it is ideology. But I don't think they are much sizeable even among religious.
Re: The world might run out of people
#55I’m somewhat surprised by the tone of surprise in this article/interview. While I still frequently see references to “out-of-control population growth” among laypeople here on HN or on Twitter, often in reference to Africa, I have long gotten the impression that the scientific and political communities have turned to models showing drastically lower birth rates coinciding with increased development. Lower infant mort…
Its not unambiguously good news. There are several countries such as Japan and Sweden that are looking down the barrel of inverted population pyramids in their immediate future and the consequences are expected to be dire. Yes, overpopulation can and should be a concern, but underpopulation should be one as well, and already is for pockets of the world.
Have we ever seen this happen to a drastic degree in recent times? If so, what happened? Who says that governments couldn't address a crisis, when they often involve themselves heavily in crises the economy, bailing out banks and so on.
If a modern government can force every young person to to join the army for the ostensible "defense of the nation" (e.g. Israel) , why not force them to take care of old people?
Re: The world might run out of people
#56A world with declining population. Full of old people due to population pyramid inverted. Full of stupid, and impulsive, and likely religious zealots, as those are the only groups with fertility rates above replacement level.
>Full of stupid, and impulsive, and likely religious zealots,
They are so stupid, yet everyone else let themselves be out-bred by them? I think if that happens in the long-term, it more or less suggests "religious zealots" have adapted better.
Re: The world might run out of people
#57That's interesting. I've heard the exact opposite opinion somewhere, that the education of women doesn't have as big an effect as anticipated by the models, especially in Africa. This graphs shows it https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/womens-educational-attain... For some countries like India or China, the effect is very strong. Just a few years of education drastically reduce the number of children, but for other co…
Confused: that graph shows birth rates dropping like a stone, all toward 2.
Re: The world might run out of people
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
>entire fields of practical human knowledge and know-how can be lost forever. Plenty of examples of that happening as a result of technology.
Can you give an example? Technology may remove the need for physical skills, but I don't really see how it would wipe out fields of knowledge.
Smithing for instance. Used to be there were folks throughout the world that understood hand-working metal intimately. Now its almost died out.
Re: The world might run out of people
#59I haven't heard of a specie disapearing primarily because it didn't have enough babies. Even the giant panda, before arriving to this situation, had seen their forests devasted by us. So at best, I expect our specie to mess up in some big ways, then maybe, the finish blow will be reproduction. Yet I doubt it. First, other threats have a way higher likelyhood. India has no water, terrible social tension, instable bord…
Well, look again. Humans are quite the only species capable of understanding at a higher level the reproduction and controlling it. So, yes, this plays a bigger role than environment, where humans can thrive in almost any conditions, if the technology is allowing it.
No intrisic force makes a woman to have children and how many, just cultural and basic economy.
Re: The world might run out of people
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm having trouble finding a source with a search engine, but I've heard of bronze age shields that were impossible to reproduce with current metallurgy. Ancient concrete recipes are rediscovered occasionally. These aren't fields though. The loss probably wasn't as simple as older technology being surplanted by newer tech. I think what you are looking for my be found in farming though. I would think there are entire…
they are fields. you're being biased. it's still lost knowledge that used to be known by lots of people. the point stands.
Of course it stands, regardless of the pedantry over whether it is a category or a detail.