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Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

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Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#41

Post by philwelch »

Judson wrote: post #37
GavinB wrote: post #11

This is what Google does. What you search is becoming a better and better predictor of what you will do. Most searches are based on future plans, purchase, or interests. They even know your current and future locations if you use google maps for directions. If you use gmail, Google can tell that you just broke up with your girlfriend, or are graduating college. Sidenote: we don't "give away" this information. We exch…

It is almost freaky when I go to type something I thought was obscure into the google search bar and it predicts what I am going to type after the first word. A less obscure example (but the only one I could think of) is when I type is "How to fix " and it correctly filled in "a leaky faucet". No context, but it guessed correctly.

It autocompletes the same thing for me. Leaky faucets are a common problem; I suspect this is a case of confirmation bias.

Far spookier is the autocompletion for "a pair of pl".

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#42

Post by WesleyJohnson »

AgentConundrum wrote: post #20
portman wrote: post #5

Is there a reason why he intentionally mis-capitalizes "Facebook" to "FaceBook"? Scott Adams strikes me as a careful and fastidious writer; I'm wondering if there is an inside joke that I'm not getting.

That really bugged me while reading the post, and doubly so when he didn't capitalize the M in FutureMe, which arguably deserves it. Incidentally, there is already a site/service called FutureMe ( http://www.futureme.org/ ). It's for sending yourself emails way off in the future. I used it once in 2006 and got the email a year later. The future wasn't at all what I had expected. Not even close.

The real futureme is a great service. I'm someone who likes the idea of a journal, but doesn't have the tenacity to actually keep one. Instead, I use futureme once a year around new years to email myself. I recap how the year went, what I accomplished and what goals are still unrealized and then I send it to myself one year into the future. I've been doing this since 2005 (received my first email in 2006) and am always anxious to get the emails and read have that one-way conversation with my younger self.

I also use it to email friends and family in the future on birthdays or other events, though to a lesser extent. I sincerely hope they stay in business for years to come.

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#44

Post by brc »

jeromec wrote: post #7

I think the concept is good hypothetically, but wouldn't work in practice. People are not that organized. Knowing beforehand where you are going to go and what you are going to do at various points in the future is hard enough to imagine, let alone consistently input into a computer, even if there is a value proposition as he points out. That's my thinking anyway.

You're correct. Unless a new interface could be invented, there's far too much friction in the idea, and like any network, it's value is proportional to the number of nodes. Unless all of a person's plans are in there, the value falls quickly.

It's pretty simple to see this - few of us even keep our 'formal' calendar up to date, of meetings, calls and plans. Very few people keep their 'informal' calendar up to date. I, for one, never create a task called 'buy truck', 'plan holiday'. The important, high value items never need to be written down. The ones that get tracked and remembered are the low-value ones like 'pay electricity bill' and 'pick up worming tablets for dog'. And they're the ones with little advertising value.

That said, there is probably a specific vertical niche in here that could be expanded, but more of an add-on to an existing network like facebook than a stand alone. Something like a 'holiday planning' where people could post a future plan like a trip to the Maldives, and have their friends (and advertisers) provide input on what to do while you are there.

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#45

Post by nico »

It sounds a little like Needish or Redbeacon. You ask for what you want/need and then people/companies make you offers for it. Sort of a reverse eBay.

I don't know how Redbeacon is doing, but I know Needish didn't do very well, maybe because of the market they targeted, but they ended doing a clone of Groupon and then selling it to Groupon to build Groupon Latam.

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#46

Post by ghshephard »

Judson wrote: post #37
GavinB wrote: post #11

This is what Google does. What you search is becoming a better and better predictor of what you will do. Most searches are based on future plans, purchase, or interests. They even know your current and future locations if you use google maps for directions. If you use gmail, Google can tell that you just broke up with your girlfriend, or are graduating college. Sidenote: we don't "give away" this information. We exch…

It is almost freaky when I go to type something I thought was obscure into the google search bar and it predicts what I am going to type after the first word. A less obscure example (but the only one I could think of) is when I type is "How to fix " and it correctly filled in "a leaky faucet". No context, but it guessed correctly.

Agreed. I was hanging out with Friends last night in Foster City, CA, and I had decided that I was going to spend Thanksgiving in Reno. A few of my friends said "Is there anything to do other than Gamble in Reno?" So, I did what any silicon valley denizen would do, an whipped out my iphone. I typed in the following:

What is there

That's it, just three words.

Third line down on my screen, courtesy of google, was:

"What is there to do in Reno"

Scared the living crap out of me.

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#47

Post by nkohari »

werthog wrote: post #18
portman wrote: post #5

Is there a reason why he intentionally mis-capitalizes "Facebook" to "FaceBook"? Scott Adams strikes me as a careful and fastidious writer; I'm wondering if there is an inside joke that I'm not getting.

Because he's an out-of-touch anachronism?

This. Although I'd argue it's a spurious correlation -- I don't really "get" Facebook either, so it's hard for me to use it as a bellwether of being in-touch.

Re: Scott Adams: FaceBook Killer

#49

Post by scrrr »

What should kill Facebook is an open, distributed system. It should be more like email. That's why frid.ge stands no chance, because it is basically the same as Facebook. I have hopes for Diaspora.

Openness and profits don't have to be exclusive. Any successful email marketer probably can testify to this. And Google most definitely can.

Just for the sake of professional pride, talented developers and entrepreneurs should be able to make something that can compete with FB. I have little sympathy for top-people like the Google Maps creator joining Facebook. They should be better than that.

But who knows, maybe I'm just a liberal crackhead living in a dream-world and people really do need a walled system where they can get rid of that pesky privacy, the overwhelming choices of open systems and the boring speeches of arrogant intellectuals.

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