Earlier quoted context omitted.
One interface change was the effect of 'pulling hard back on the stick' in case of runaway stabilizers. That worked with the old system, but not with MCAS. This seems to be exactly the interface change that lead to the crash.
That's fair, but what does the checklist say? I mean, say there are a thousand different malfunctions that could cause an uncommanded nose-down. This one happens to be #359, but the pilots don't know that, they just know that they're pointed at the ground. Maybe it used to be the case that the first item on the checklist (pull back on the stick) fixed problem #359, and now it's the second. But there are several hundr…
Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
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Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#12In a mostly-robust system, different layers catch and defend against the errors of other layers in the system. For a major accident to occur, holes in multiple layers have to line up that day.
In this case we have four holes that lined up that day - a plane model with a possible rare software bug, an aircraft with a faulty sensor feeding bad information to the computers, an airline company with internal culture that continues to fly a specific aircraft that keeps trying to point at the ground, sometimes without even making an attempt at fixing the problem, and finally, on this fatal day, a crew that did not follow the proper procedures even after twenty-three nose down incidents during the flight.
Even without the MACS system present, the last two holes seem like they would bring down an airliner eventually, from one cause or another.
Pilots are rightfully mad about not being told about the MACS system. But it's just one of many systems on a 737 that can trim the stabilizer to point that it can't be flow. That's why the procedure for any stabilizer problem is to disable automatic control of the stabilizer. The training and checklists that the accident pilots had covered this, and previous pilots flying the accident aircraft did this and then had uneventful flights.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
One interface change was the effect of 'pulling hard back on the stick' in case of runaway stabilizers. That worked with the old system, but not with MCAS. This seems to be exactly the interface change that lead to the crash.
To use a car analogy ... You can always override cruise control by stomping hard on the brake (like to avoid an imminent crash). That's how it's always worked and you've gotten used to this, and done it on occasion when warranted. Now imagine that the next generation of adaptive cruise-control/"auto-pilot"/whatever comes out, and stomping on the brakes no longer does anything. You have to first disable the cruise con…
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
One interface change was the effect of 'pulling hard back on the stick' in case of runaway stabilizers. That worked with the old system, but not with MCAS. This seems to be exactly the interface change that lead to the crash.
To use a car analogy ... You can always override cruise control by stomping hard on the brake (like to avoid an imminent crash). That's how it's always worked and you've gotten used to this, and done it on occasion when warranted. Now imagine that the next generation of adaptive cruise-control/"auto-pilot"/whatever comes out, and stomping on the brakes no longer does anything. You have to first disable the cruise con…
Imagine that the failure that caused the nose-down wasn't a failed AOA sensor giving bad readings to MCAS, but some other reason that _also_ wouldn't have been solved by pulling back on the yoke, but would have been by completing some later step on the checklist. Suppose the pilots didn't follow the checklist. Would that be enough information to say that Boeing is responsible?
To be sure, in this case the pilots may have followed the checklist! It may well be the case that Boeing is completely responsible! The checklist items might not have worked, or there may have been a good reason that the pilots didn't follow it, or the checklist might have been crazy, or they might not have had time to do what needed to be done, etc. There's still a whole lot that's not known (or hasn't been released) about what happened.
I'm just not sure that the current evidence, _viz_ that Boeing made an internal software change, that they didn't explicitly call it out to pilots, and that there's no difference in the actions prescribed in the event of an uncommanded nose-down pre- and post-change, is enough to say that the fault is entirely Boeing's for this accident.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#15There's something called the "Swiss Cheese Theory" of accidents. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model ) In a mostly-robust system, different layers catch and defend against the errors of other layers in the system. For a major accident to occur, holes in multiple layers have to line up that day. In this case we have four holes that lined up that day - a plane model with a possible rare software bug, an…
By the way - in small airplanes, you can overcome trim with elevator pressure. That's not necessarily the case on a passenger jet; and not only because it's much bigger, but because the trim works differently [1]. I wonder whether that played a role. I must admit that before I read [1], I had assumed that bad trim is something I can overpower, when push comes to shove.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
To use a car analogy ... You can always override cruise control by stomping hard on the brake (like to avoid an imminent crash). That's how it's always worked and you've gotten used to this, and done it on occasion when warranted. Now imagine that the next generation of adaptive cruise-control/"auto-pilot"/whatever comes out, and stomping on the brakes no longer does anything. You have to first disable the cruise con…
I think that's a pretty good analogy. If you do everything right, you'll get this malfunction under control. But it's easy to see how pilots whose plane is acting up unexpectedly can miss it, and it's reasonable to ask whether Boeing could've done better - and the regulators (note that according to the article, FAA and EASA were convinced by Boeing that this did not require re-training, while the Brazilian regulator…
Absolutely reasonable to ask what Boeing could have done better. I'm just not sure the information about Boeing's actions contained in the article gets me all the way to "indefensible", paraphrasing another comment.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#17Based only on what I read in this article, I can kind of see Boeing's point? From what I understand, the procedure/checklist for an uncommanded nose down didn't change from the old to the new version, even with the addition of MCAS. So from the Pilot's perspective, there is nothing that they should do differently in the new vs. the older 737s when this happens-- follow the checklist, which will (eventually) cause you…
I see Boeing's point, too, but to me it just means both sides are at fault. The pilots are at fault for not following the emergency checklist. Boeing is at fault for abusing rules to slip in a change based on the assumption that pilots never rely on their own understanding of the aircraft, which I'm sure they know to be false. Air safety is all about human factors, and that's a pretty obvious one.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
To use a car analogy ... You can always override cruise control by stomping hard on the brake (like to avoid an imminent crash). That's how it's always worked and you've gotten used to this, and done it on occasion when warranted. Now imagine that the next generation of adaptive cruise-control/"auto-pilot"/whatever comes out, and stomping on the brakes no longer does anything. You have to first disable the cruise con…
But the difference is not only do the pilots of a commercial airliner have vastly more training and experience than your average driver, but they literally have a list of things to try (and extensive training on following the list) in the case of a malfunction like an uncommanded nose-down. Imagine that the failure that caused the nose-down wasn't a failed AOA sensor giving bad readings to MCAS, but some other reason…
And you are writing this after many, many accidents that root cause was pilot not exactly knowing what or why something happens with a plane or plane autopilot (ie. AF 447)
Being apologetic of cost cutting on safety issues is dumb as it erodes culture of safety and encourages others to skimp on safety.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#19Boeing should face some major fines for this, and additional regulation is going to be needed to make sure this doesn't happen in the future. This all seems to come down to the fact they wanted to avoid having to retrain pilots ($$$), so these automation changes were kept in the dark. The crew before them dealt with this same problem but they successfully cut out the trim system. They got lucky and they should have b…
Given that the FAA made the decision that it was fine to not retrain the pilots, sounds like there's going to have to be someone to regulate the regulator.
Re: Behind the Lion Air Crash, a Trail of Decisions Kept Pilots in the Dark
#20Pilots are pretty unhappy about this M.C.A.S. situation. They're literally expected to fly an aircraft, and not even being told how that aircraft functions. And while the checklist may eventually take care of this, that isn't a substitute for a professional pilot in the cockpit. Just the lack of training/simulated failures for this new system is highly irregular, pilots are used to and expect such training while transitioning to a new major aircraft version.
The biggest drivers here seem to be cost and Boeing's competitiveness, not safety. I think it might be time for the EASA to trust the FAA a little less, at least until they get their house back in order.