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Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far Not really. Audi e-tron, Jaguar iPace and BMW i3 are all well reviewed. And 2019/2020 will see a wave of car companies e.g. Hyundai, Mercedes entering the market including plenty of interesting startups coming out of China. So Tesla is going to need far more to differentiate themselves than just range.

Anecdotal, but a friend of a friend bought the jag. He is having a very poor experience with the car.

Was this the story of the jag where it only had tens of miles on the vehicle, the rear motor seized, and the manufacturer and the dealer are fighting over the buyback of the vehicle?

https://www.i-paceforum.com/forum/193-2018-jaguar-i-pace-ev-...

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#83
What Tesla has achieved in the past decade is a miracle. Their success is a combination of luck and the resolve of everyone at Tesla.

But given the tall odds and strong pessimism from multiple groups, it's a marvel they continue to thrive. Kudos Team Tesla!

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#84

Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…

Tesla also just lost another CFO. Deepak Ahuja announced he’s leaving. Again. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-a...

Elon: "And we thought long and hard about who the right person is to take over from Deepak, and that's Zach. And Zach has been with Tesla now for nine years... [...] So Zach, you had management and technology at Wharton undergrad and then worked at Tesla and then spent a couple of years at Harvard Business School, which I actually don't think was necessary, by the way."

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#85
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this much turmoil in an accounting department is never good. In the last year, they've lost 5 finance VPs, their CFO, and a CAO that they hired and left a month into his tenure. That would be shocking for any other $50 billion market cap company.

Oh absolutely. That much unplanned churn in the financial sector of a Girl Guides troop would be shocking! In a $50 billion market cap company it’s downright alarming. I really don’t know exactly what to make of it, but it factored into my decision to leave the stock the hell alone.

That is if they have something to hide, but since they are public and have to go through Audit. I wonder why are al these Financial people leaving.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#86
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh absolutely. That much unplanned churn in the financial sector of a Girl Guides troop would be shocking! In a $50 billion market cap company it’s downright alarming. I really don’t know exactly what to make of it, but it factored into my decision to leave the stock the hell alone.

That is if they have something to hide, but since they are public and have to go through Audit. I wonder why are al these Financial people leaving.

Yes, they are public and have to go through audit and that's why all these people want to spend more time with their families... Probably the departing interim CFO won't be signing the 10-K filing, and apparently they weren't able to find anyone better than Zach willing to do so.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was your Honda 50,000, which is I think the minimum to get the tesla self driving features? I believe with paying for the 5,000 option you get no self driving features on the tesla, just old school cruise control.

That's not true, the 5000 add on was to be able to get the full self-driving when it comes out (which it hasn't yet). I have a Model 3 and I didn't opt in for the add on. You can always add it on later since it's just software, once it comes out. I still have full adaptive cruise control, auto steer, auto lane-change.

Sorry, maybe it is just the Model 3, but I thought to get anything like lane keeping and ACC, you had to buy the self driving package, otherwise you only get standard cruise and no lane keeping, which are standard on Honda now.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#89
post #67
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Buttons, seriously? Buttons allow a driver to not take his/her eyes off the road while changing the radio station or adjusting the AC. Totally eliminating dashboard buttons is dumb, but fortunately some car-makers have started realizing this and have started to re-introduce some of those buttons.

Yeah, I'm not opposed to a few buttons - like +- temperature, all blinkers, etc. But in most cars, the number of buttons is just overwhelming, so you probably need to take your eyes off the road just to find the button you're looking for!

I could type on my old Nokias etc without ever looking at the message. It was flawless. If one wanted to do it whilst driving (not that anyone ever would, of course) it could be done without ever looking away from the road. That's the power of actual physical feedback.

I'm sure there's someone somewhere who can prove me wrong and touch-type flawlessly on their touch screen phone. But in most cases you're relying heavily on auto-correct to make a parseable sentence. Which means you'll need to look at the screen a lot.

The radio/Cassette player in my car is all buttons. I can change stations, volume, switch to tape etc without looking much at all. Some buttons I might no remember their place - but here's the crucial thing. I don't have to keep looking until I make contact. I glance, see where the button is, and then feel for it.

A touch screen simply doesn't give you that, you either need to see yourself making contact or wait for the software to do something you may (or may not) have wanted. If it's wrong, you're now trying to fix that and try again.

I do not believe that touch screens reduce risk in interacting with car functionality, indeed I'm pretty sure they increase it.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#90
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's say there are 2 grocery shops. All their costs and expenses are the same but one grocery shop sells twice as many products per square foot / unit of time. As someone interested in more profit, which store would you rather own? The argument you're responding to wasn't "Tesla's stores are dramatically more efficient". The argument is that Tesla stores sell Tesla's EV cars effectively (because that's the only thin…

In fact parent was making claims about the extra markup required for a traditional dealership to make a profit on EVs. This expense doesn't magically disappear on a Tesla, unless their dealerships are more efficient . Feel free to argue with my prisoner's dilemma point earlier in the thread if you want, which is in my view how this will play out. I've already agreed that what you're describing is an issue (and am at…

This expense doesn't magically disappear on a Tesla, unless their dealerships are more efficient.

Walk into a regular dealership and then Tesla's version and you tell me which is more efficient.

For just one example of the differences, consider the typical haggling over price where multiple sales people and managers interact with you for an extended period of time to try to get you to spend top dollar. Compare with the Tesla version where you're pointed at a computer open to their website where you can order and configure the car that you want.

I've already agreed that what you're describing is an issue (and am at a loss why you took the time to write it out), I'm merely asserting that it's not going to spell the end of a quarter trillion dollars worth of wealth.

On what principles will it not do so? Merely because it seems absurd? Or is there some logic that applies?

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