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Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#41

Post by taneq »

Reedx wrote: post #34
threeseed wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me the next couple of years are going to make or break Tesla. You have pretty much every car manufacturer releasing flagship electric cars in 2019/2020. And most of them are either cheaper than Tesla or offer far more value i.e. premium branding and better interiors. And whilst they have their Supercharger network I suspect that pretty soon we will governments intervening to regulate standards and build out infra…

> For me the next couple of years are going to make or break Tesla. Maybe, but haven't people been saying that about Tesla for 15 years now?

That's what happens when you aggressively scale a business. They could have throttled back and been a profitable niche manufacturer with the Roadster, and again (albeit a bigger niche) with the Model S, and again now with the Model 3. But that's not their goal, so they're continuing to expand as fast as possible, and that carries risks.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#43

Post by taneq »

Cyclone_ wrote: post #17

I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. I sold off all my stock in Tesla, although I think they may still be a good short term bet. The supercharger network and cool factor is their big advantage at the moment, but I think in the future they won't do as well when there's more competition.

No established car company has released a car that even attempted to match Tesla in terms of performance, range, value for money or overall feature set. Maybe the new Porsche will be close, maybe not, but nothing else is even in the ball park.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#44

Post by tomp »

threeseed wrote: post #15
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…

For me the next couple of years are going to make or break Tesla. You have pretty much every car manufacturer releasing flagship electric cars in 2019/2020. And most of them are either cheaper than Tesla or offer far more value i.e. premium branding and better interiors. And whilst they have their Supercharger network I suspect that pretty soon we will governments intervening to regulate standards and build out infra…

> offer far more value i.e. premium branding and better interiors

This can't happen soon enough. Ever since driving a Tesla, I'm completely disappointed by the interior/control panels of most (all?) other cars. Buttons, seriously? A 9-inch screen?!

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#45

Post by olau »

dragontamer wrote: post #19
marvin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't also Musk abstain from voting before the SolarCity acquisition? That's what I remember, anyway.

Yes. Musk abstained from voting. Musk made his opinion known, but otherwise "fairly" let the shareholders vote on the issue. At least technically fair. It was 85% in favor of merging. I say "technically", because Musk also went around trying to convince people that they should allow SCTY to be acquired by TSLA. But hey, shareholders trust Musk and were willing to follow his opinion on the matter. So I guess its fair…

> A stupid move, but fair.

Are you're saying this from a short-term financial perspective?

I personally think it's too early to tell if it was a stupid move. Elon Musk had a plan, and his plans do seem to work out for the most part given some time.

It's my understanding that they recently cut a major sales channel, so it's perhaps not surprising that the number of installations have fallen.

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#46

Post by stevehawk »

MBCook wrote: post #27
danhak wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only has it not been an issue...Tesla's share of plug-in sales has been increasing dramatically year over year. Cadillac ELR, BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Chevy Bolt were all billed and hyped as "Tesla Killers" upon launch. https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ To date, no other manufacture has announced any plans to procure enough battery supply to produce cars in comparable volume to Tesla.

To date. But more and more manufacturers are biting at their heels for the chance. With better and better cars.

that aren't selling nearly as well...

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#48

Post by Diederich »

drudru11 wrote: post #29
threeseed wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far Not really. Audi e-tron, Jaguar iPace and BMW i3 are all well reviewed. And 2019/2020 will see a wave of car companies e.g. Hyundai, Mercedes entering the market including plenty of interesting startups coming out of China. So Tesla is going to need far more to differentiate themselves than just range.

Anecdotal, but a friend of a friend bought the jag. He is having a very poor experience with the car.

Can you say what problems there are?

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#49

Post by ccorda »

dmode wrote: post #28

These numbers are unreal. From 100 cars in 2011 to 140,000 Model 3s (+100K Model X and S) in 2019. And all electric. I personally am not interested in minor changes in financials, and want to just sit back and marvel the machine that Tesla and Elon Musk has created. Kudos to everyone at Tesla.

  $TSLA annual revenue (billions)
  2018: $21.46
  2017: $11.76
  2016: $7.00
  2015: $4.05
  2014: $3.20
  2013: $2.01
  2012: $0.41
  2011: $0.20
  2010: $0.12
  2009: $0.11
  2008: $0.01

  CAGR:
  2 yr: 75%
  5 yr: 60%
  10 yr: 107%
source: https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1090719629922746374

It's interesting to overlay Tesla 2014 - 2019 with Apple 2002 - 2007. Now what Apple did from there will be tough to match (not to mention the margins): https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-through-the-lens-of-ap...

Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

#50

Post by hnburnsy »

farisjarrah wrote: post #23
Cyclone_ wrote: post #17

I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. I sold off all my stock in Tesla, although I think they may still be a good short term bet. The supercharger network and cool factor is their big advantage at the moment, but I think in the future they won't do as well when there's more competition.

I am not so sure. Its really not just about their cars being electric. Its the whole technological package that's miles and miles ahead of the competition. I just bought a new Honda with Lane Keep Assist and Adaptive Cruise Control and a whole host of other features. Compared to my boss's tesla the "self-driving" features of the Honda are nothing. My honda doesnt even really have a way to get OTA updates to any softw…

Was your Honda 50,000, which is I think the minimum to get the tesla self driving features? I believe with paying for the 5,000 option you get no self driving features on the tesla, just old school cruise control.
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